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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


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LWX says few more hours to go in updated AFD
 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
938 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will approach the area later today, then cross
the area tonight. High pressure will build in Friday into Saturday.
A cold front and wave of low pressure are expected to move over the
area Saturday night into Sunday. High pressure is expected to make
another brief return early next week before unsettled weather
returns by the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 PM Update: A cold front currently situated over far western
portions of the forecast area will continue to sweep eastward
over the next few hours. Behind the front, conditions will
become stable, ending any threat for thunderstorms. Currently
there is a cluster of thunderstorms along the I-95 corridor in
northeast MD, and a scattering of thunderstorms trailing behind
that through the center of the forecast area. Current SPC
Mesoanalysis shows 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE to the east of the
front, with effective shear values of 50+ knots. As a result,
strong to severe thunderstorms may continue to be possible over
the next couple of hours. A strong low-level jet is present to
the east of I-95 ahead of the northeast MD storms, but winds are
much weaker at low levels farther west (despite the strong
winds still present at mid- levels). As a result, any residual
(low- end) tornado threat would be across northeastern MD.
Damaging winds and large hail can`t be ruled out with the storms
further to the west.
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