2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[high risk]

19 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like the crapvection racing ahead of the main line is going to use up any instability. Hope we can pull this one out because it was looking good for a time, but it always seems to be something in these parts.

       Having the crapvection blossom into more significant storms is probably our best route to SVR east of the Potomac.    This is what the HRRR and NAM Nest are showing.   My concern all along has been that if we have to wait for the main line after dark, instability will be waning then.

[TSSN+]

[Eskimo Joe]

Cell near Capon Bridge, WV has a SVR on it. Looks like it might be trying to get a notch forming.

[yoda]

Looks like the line approaching the i81 corridor now is going to be the "event"

[Eskimo Joe]

9 minutes ago, yoda said:

Looks like the line approaching the i81 corridor now is going to be the "event"

Yea. Looks like two big cells, one just north of Winchester, VA and the other just NW of New Market, VA.

[midatlanticweather]

That notch is looking interesting for sure! Will be interesting to watch

 

[MN Transplant]

Not sure how it is going up there, but road tripping down here!

 

[WeatherShak]

[Eskimo Joe]

Uptick in CG on the Martinsburg cell. CIMMS experimental probability has ~25% TOR risk, ~25% Damaging Wind risk. LWX certainly justified in keeping the SVR on it at least. Wouldn't surprise me to see a new SVR shortly with a "tornado possible" tag on it.

[midatlanticweather]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Uptick in CG on the Martinsburg cell. CIMMS experimental probability has ~25% TOR risk, ~25% Damaging Wind risk. LWX certainly justified in keeping the SVR on it at least. Wouldn't surprise me to see a new SVR shortly with a "tornado possible" tag on it.

They seem to be waiting until the last minute! LOL!

 

[87storms]

That line looks tasty for dt Frederick. Let’s see if it holds.

[TSSN+]

[aldie 22]

This one has all the makings in my hood

[SnowenOutThere]

Maybe a line of prefrontal showers popping  up? Just had a brief downpour here.

[wxdude64]

LOL, I had like a minute of 3/8-1/2" hail...

[aldie 22]

Preparing for 0.06 of rain...yeesh

[Kmlwx]

As it looked like earlier - the best cells are up along a line from Harpers Ferry towards Thurmont/Taneytown - some nice looking cells with good CIMMS probs. Nothing or just junk locally. 

[87storms]

This one is gonna be spicy 

[Mrs.J]

Line coming in here in SW Frederick

[yoda]

New STW for Northern Caroll County until 745pm

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Line coming in here in SW Frederick

I can’t even see the catoctins rn. Lightning pickup up quickly here 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

New STW for Northern Caroll County until 745pm

Experimental CIMMS has 54% TOR probabilities on it.

[JW21]

A little rainstorm, but beautiful after. 

[Mrs.J]

Just now, 87storms said:

I can’t even see the catoctins rn. Lightning pickup up quickly here 

Lot of lightning. Sky looks smokey. 

[Eskimo Joe]

TOR northern Carroll

[poolz1]

Lots of thunder, lightning and heavy rain.  No wind hardly at all.  Perfect rainbow storm with the sun breaking out as the clouds cleared to the west. Saw the rainbow and told my 12 yo daughter to take a look.  She went to snap a pic and caught a lightning bolt.  Random luck! Pretty cool pic.

[87storms]

3 minutes ago, Mrs.J said:

Lot of lightning. Sky looks smokey. 

Drenching rain here. Lightning involved. Breezy. Severe or not, this storm took its vitamins.

[87storms]

2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Lots of thunder, lightning and heavy rain.  No wind hardly at all.  Perfect rainbow storm with the sun breaking out as the clouds cleared to the west. Saw the rainbow and told my 12 yo daughter to take a look.  She went to snap a pic and caught a lightning bolt.  Random luck! Pretty cool pic.

Yea I didn’t expect this type of storm for late March.  Already seeing some brighter skies to the nw.

[TSSN+]

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

 

Just down the road at New Windsor, weird looking sky. Deep orange, but the clouds are this slate blue.