2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[Kmlwx]

10z HRRR initiates stuff around 2pm locally. ETA: More like 1pm a little cell is already W of DC on the Potomac. 

[Kmlwx]

13z HRRR bullseyes DC proper. 

[WxUSAF]

Every short range meso seems to be poorly initializing the storms out west. Not sure what that implies per se…

[high risk]

22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Every short range meso seems to be poorly initializing the storms out west. Not sure what that implies per se…

        Good point, but I *think* that it only affects the timing and not whether we get storms.     If the line remains intact, I think it drives through the area in the early afternoon.    If not, we wait for cells to fire to our west and move east during the later afternoon.     None of the CAMs fail to move storms through the area at some point today, although there are admittedly disagreements in the amount of coverage.

[AdamHLG]

currently mostly cloudy skies northern Baltimore heading into noon time is not exactly the look I am going for on severe potential days.

[Eskimo Joe]

Yesterday things look pretty decent, but it's the Mid Atlantic and we're staring down mid level debris clouds. Classic.

[wawarriors4]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yesterday things look pretty decent, but it's the Mid Atlantic and we're staring down mid level debris clouds. Classic.

Not all the region, full sun down here around Fredericksburg....

 

ETA: 91/72

[yoda]

I figure we'll get an MCD soon

[canderson]

Blue box for a bunch of y’all 

 

[PSWired]

Looks like we have ourselves a watch as well:

 

https://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=MDZ014&warncounty=MDC003&firewxzone=MDZ014&local_place1=Annapolis MD&product1=Severe+Thunderstorm+Watch&lat=38.9653&lon=-76.4892#.Yt7XbnbMJaQ

[North Balti Zen]

Best chances for storms/a lot of rain seem like it would from BWI south, right? At least that's my read on things. 

[Kmlwx]

DCAPE is really lacking for most of us. Lots of CAPE though. 

[IUsedToHateCold]

Mix of sun and clouds here. My area has done quite well for severe this year between the tornado and the microburst a couple of weeks ago, so I'm kind of expecting something. Let's hope this run comes without any power outages. 

[Kmlwx]

Interesting that the storm is also warned for hail - on a day that was supposed to have very little hail risk! 

[87storms]

the thunder here is of the building rattling variety.

[WeatherShak]

DCAPE is really lacking for most of us. Lots of CAPE though. 

Dang @ the 4,000 + CAPE.

[midatlanticweather]

That storm blew up quick. Good winds, few good bolts, power flashes.. but now to the east! Was fun little storm!

Down to 72 degrees now. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Impressive velocity signature on the Leesburg cell.

[biodhokie]

Both cells in Leesburg and Warrenton seem to be just raining lightning bolts.

[AmericanWxFreak]

Ugh seems like Columbia is gonna get scraped again. Been a month of good storms going north and south. 

[BlizzardNole]

I can hear that cell in western MoCo -- lots of long, loud thunder booms

[Scraff]

12 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Ugh seems like Columbia is gonna get scraped again. Been a month of good storms going north and south. 

Unless that line builds more to the north, you and are likely a swing and miss….again. 

[mattie g]

I guess mid-level clouds all morning didn't matter all that much. Good calls all around.

[AmericanWxFreak]

2 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Unless that line builds more to the north, you and are likely a swing and miss….again. 

Doesn’t look promising. Been a hard month for us Columbian storm lovers. 

[WxUSAF]

17 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Ugh seems like Columbia is gonna get scraped again. Been a month of good storms going north and south. 

Yyyuuuuppppp

[Kmlwx]

The MoCo cell looks like it's losing intensity. 

[biodhokie]

I don't know what microclimate there is where the MoCo cell is, but cells going through that area recently start dying crossing the Potomac there unless it's a mothership of a cell.

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, biodhokie said:

I don't know what microclimate there is where the MoCo cell is, but cells going through that area recently start dying crossing the Potomac there unless it's a mothership of a cell.

Just the other day didn't Potomac get hit pretty hard? 

[aldie 22]

raining pretty good here in Aldie, a little bit of wind, no lightning just heavy rain....just the way I like it

[NorthArlington101]

Warrenton cell looks good, rest of the line looks pretty mediocre. Want to be wrong, though!