2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[Kmlwx]

The 18z NAM nest at the 20z frame looks comically different versus reality. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Let’s get that slight over the mountains 

https://twitter.com/markellinwood/status/1550937404915204097?s=20&t=Wavx5hJSpM-SR3NYrDyl5g

[Kmlwx]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Let’s get that slight over the mountains 

https://twitter.com/markellinwood/status/1550937404915204097?s=20&t=Wavx5hJSpM-SR3NYrDyl5g

Think our only hope will be if a good enough push of rain cooled air from those storms pushes east and kicks off something closer. If I wasn't a weather enthusiast and looked at this radar - I'd be expecting a pummeling tonight. 

[SnowenOutThere]

14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Think our only hope will be if a good enough push of rain cooled air from those storms pushes east and kicks off something closer. If I wasn't a weather enthusiast and looked at this radar - I'd be expecting a pummeling tonight. 

But since we are we know to expect disappointment. 

[Kmlwx]

Also - a lot of the activity to the west of the VA/WV border is likely being aided by terrain. Not sure any of that would exist if the higher elevations weren't there. 

[yoda]

There were 2 rotation markers on two parts of the line cresting the Apps on Radarscope 

[AmericanWxFreak]

Monday?

[SnowenOutThere]

Looks like storms may be trying to refire of the dying storms outflow east of Winchester. 

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
651 PM EDT Sat Jul 23 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Washington County in north central Maryland...
  Western Frederick County in north central Maryland...
  Northwestern Loudoun County in northern Virginia...
  Central Clarke County in northwestern Virginia...
  Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...
  East central Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...

* Until 715 PM EDT.

* At 650 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Paramount-Long Meadow to near Berryville,
  moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Frederick, Hagerstown, Thurmont, Charles Town, Emmitsburg,
  Shepherdstown, Municipal Stadium, Purcellville, Robinwood,
  Brunswick, Fountainhead-Orchard Hills, Ranson, Berryville,
  Boonsboro, Smithsburg, Braddock Heights, Paramount-Long Meadow,
  Mount Aetna, Round Hill and Mount Lena.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Large hail and damaging winds and continuous cloud to ground
lightning is occurring with these storms. Move indoors immediately.
Lightning is one of nature`s leading killers. Remember, if you can
hear thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

 

[wawarriors4]

 

[Mrs.J]

Lot of wind down in my area. Nothing else as of yet. 

[toolsheds]

Crazy gusts ahead of the front here.  Neighbor had a tree snap about 10 minutes ago. 

[weatherCCB]

Nice outflow boundary just came thru here.  30 40 mph gusts and nice temp drop.

[toolsheds]

Just now, toolsheds said:

Crazy gusts ahead of the front here.  Neighbor had a tree snap about 10 minutes ago. 

Looking at the radar loop now and it looks like the gusts hit just as the outflow boundary hit. 

[Kmlwx]

Nice consolation prize outflow. One of the more impressive outflows I can remember. 

As for the storms...looks like it's going about as advertised. Really losing any semblance of a line or storms as the activity comes east. 

[weatherCCB]

Storms look to be firing around oak hill area behind the outflow.

maybe we can sneak in a few rain drops.

[SnowenOutThere]

6 minutes ago, weatherCCB said:

Storms look to be firing around oak hill area behind the outflow.

maybe we can sneak in a few rain drops.

Just canceled my end of year outdoor swim thing. At least I’m in AC now, the outflow was pretty cool though lots of wind. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Now what caused that brief hut intense bout of wind a little while ago?

[Rhino16]

Apparently a Severe thunderstorm warning for the storm almost literally across the street from home.

[high risk]

55 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now what caused that brief hut intense bout of wind a little while ago?

        The outflow discussed in the 6 posts right before yours.      

[high risk]

     Monday definitely has some really good SVR potential here.    CAPE is extremely high in several models, and deep layer shear will be more than adequate.    I'd say that we could get a day 2 ENH, but the timing on a few solutions might preclude that.     The idea of a dying line of storms in the morning rejuvenating in the early afternoon could still work fine, but that scenario finds a way to screw us more often than it should.

[Maestrobjwa]

38 minutes ago, high risk said:

        The outflow discussed in the 6 posts right before yours.      

Ah dangit, lolol Look up Maestro, look up!

[Fozz]

That was an impressive outflow yesterday. Very refreshing, and a bit dark. But it felt a lot more comfortable afterwards.

[Eskimo Joe]

Tomorrow looks decent. Any time we have high CAPE and a big airmass change, someone wins.

[George BM]

Wednesday and Thursday also have potential if the front remains far enough north for us with at least modest/moderate shear.

[jewell2188]

17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Tomorrow looks decent. Any time we have high CAPE and a big airmass change, someone wins.

Is it looking widespread or more scattered?? Or do we get the elusive enhanced risk that hardly delivers lol. 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Tomorrow looks decent. Any time we have high CAPE and a big airmass change, someone wins.

      Right, and we have respectable shear too.     My concern remains, however, that several CAMs have a dying line arriving during the morning.    Most of the solutions still allow us to get hot and generate new strong storms on the outflow, but the coverage isn't what I would expect to see in the setup, and we all know that this type of scenario fails here with great ease.    I'm still optimistic (honestly, I just want some rain!), but it's a cautious optimism.  

[high risk]

8 hours ago, high risk said:

      Right, and we have respectable shear too.     My concern remains, however, that several CAMs have a dying line arriving during the morning.    Most of the solutions still allow us to get hot and generate new strong storms on the outflow, but the coverage isn't what I would expect to see in the setup, and we all know that this type of scenario fails here with great ease.    I'm still optimistic (honestly, I just want some rain!), but it's a cautious optimism.  

      I feel even better after looking at the 00Z suite, especially for those south of I-70.

[WEATHER53]

There is a storm price to pay for going from 97 to 82.

[yoda]

I see mostly sunny skies at work this morning