2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[Kleimax]

 Got the shelf cloud coming in to east  Towson/ Loch Raven area. Windy once it blew through, Lots of rain, not much lightning or thunder though 

[aldie 22]

One last hope with that line to my west...the plot thins....just had a rainshower with sun out. That's the story in a nutshell 

[Kay]

incoming shelf

[MN Transplant]

9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

One last hope with that line to my west...the plot thins....just had a rainshower with sun out. That's the story in a nutshell 

#alwaysmaryland

[aldie 22]

Can it hold?!?!?

[adelphi_sky]

Hmmmm. Line fizzled. I'll take the rain though. Can do without all the wind and stuff. 

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Can it hold?!?!?

No

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like the fat lady has sung.

[mappy]

3 hours ago, yoda said:

Tor possible on the new STW headed toward @mappy

Fell apart before it got too close

[H2O]

Storm bust down here. Nary a drop. Whomp whomp

[Stormfly]

Some surveillance footage as the storm rolled into east Harford.
Rainwise anemometer recorded a gust of 85 mph at this aircraft hangar.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiIAHgj6YOs

 

[AdamHLG]

^^nice.    I guess nothing up for today?  I remember 3 or 4 days ago today was a potential severe day.  Maybe not so much now.  Anything on the horizon.... so to speak.... in the upcoming 3-4 days?  Or just hot hot hot? 

[NorthArlington101]

I’m mixed on Cappucci but agree with the general argument/data here. Realize we’ve had this discussion before but I think the trend lines comparing LWX and (potentially cherry-picked, in all fairness) other offices is interesting

[MN Transplant]

29 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m mixed on Cappucci but agree with the general argument/data here. Realize we’ve had this discussion before but I think the trend lines comparing LWX and (potentially cherry-picked, in all fairness) other offices is interesting
 

The replies by Matthew and Ian nail the issue dead-on - trees.  We have a densely-treed metropolitan area in an area that (despite this board's complaints) has little wind.  So, the trees are not "accustomed" to windy conditions and they fail regularly.  Adding to that, much of the area was built in the post-war timeframe and the trees that are here are getting up in age and some of them are failing.  Unless you are proposing to change the definition of severe to not include tree disruption, I don't think they can or should reduce the number of warnings.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The replies by Matthew and Ian nail the issue dead-on - trees.  We have a densely-treed metropolitan area in an area that (despite this board's complaints) has little wind.  So, the trees are not "accustomed" to windy conditions and they fail regularly.  Adding to that, much of the area was built in the post-war timeframe and the trees that are here are getting up in age and some of them are failing.  Unless you are proposing to change the definition of severe to not include tree disruption, I don't think they can or should reduce the number of warnings.

I've hopped in those replies, my personal take would be either to use and educate the public better on Severe Weather Statements or change the definition to 45mph+ (give or take) wind gusts. I don't see why winter wx can have a different scale for severe criteria but severe couldn't - though maybe it already does and I'm undereducated on the issue.

[MN Transplant]

I also think that the risk to overwarning Severe is less problematic than overwarning Tornadoes.  Generally for severe you really want people to be inside.  They are going to do that if they know a thunderstorm is coming.  It is the tornado warning fatigue in other parts of the country that can really be a problem.

[Eskimo Joe]

55 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The replies by Matthew and Ian nail the issue dead-on - trees.  We have a densely-treed metropolitan area in an area that (despite this board's complaints) has little wind.  So, the trees are not "accustomed" to windy conditions and they fail regularly.  Adding to that, much of the area was built in the post-war timeframe and the trees that are here are getting up in age and some of them are failing.  Unless you are proposing to change the definition of severe to not include tree disruption, I don't think they can or should reduce the number of warnings.

Cappucci like to stir the pot as well. We get a lot of trees and wires that come down in this part of the country. These are absolutely public safety hazards to anyone outside. DC/Baltimore gets a fair number of trees into houses as well. Part of the language for the SVR warnings is "go to an interior room in a sturdy building" because we see time and time again trees getting through the roof and into the bedrooms on the top floor. 

The other issue here is that NWS has transitioned to storm based warnings. That's great because you're reducing the size of the warning polygon and the population that's being warned. The flip side to that is that you have to tailor the polygon to the storm and that leads to an increase in the number of warnings issued, especially when you're dealing with cells/clusters in lieu of a straight line. 

[Rhino16]

I don’t know if they should really be waiting until a tornado is confirmed on the ground before making a warning, not that they really do that here anyway. I think having the warnings issued based on radar is better for this general area because it could be hard to confirm a tornado is even on the ground with trees and buildings in the way.

[wawarriors4]

 

[Rhino16]

A watch just got posted, but I can’t read it on SPC because it says page not found.

[MN Transplant]

Come to papa

[MN Transplant]

Nothing even close to severe, but a quick half inch is welcome for the yard/gardens prior to this weekend’s heat.

[ravensrule]

27 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Nothing even close to severe, but a quick half inch is welcome for the yard/gardens prior to this weekend’s heat.

Seems like you are speaking from experience.

[MetalCapsFan]

Hey, have relatives down in Bowie, anything to be concerned about here?

[George BM]

10 minutes ago, MetalCapsFan said:

Hey, have relatives down in Bowie, anything to be concerned about here?

Probably not. Just some heavy rain, gusty winds and occasional lightning.

[IUsedToHateCold]

34 minutes ago, MetalCapsFan said:

Hey, have relatives down in Bowie, anything to be concerned about here?

Nope. Just an ordinary T-storm. 

[MetalCapsFan]

Thanks for the replies, the tornado that went through Bowie a couple of weeks ago passed about 1/4 mile from my mom's, and my bro lost power for 4 days in the severe storms last week, so keepin' an eye on the sky for them. Cheers!

[high risk]

Always fun to have a rogue MCS that the models can't handle.     Box may be coming shortly for eastern WV and parts of northern VA.     HRRR shows the line falling apart, but it has already held together much longer and stronger than the model has shown.

[midatlanticweather]

Could see some gusty storms later 

[Kmlwx]

19z HRRR is a big tease. Kills precip right before it gets to me (and appears to be sub severe well before then). Radar looks really deceivingly good, though to the west.