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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

Kmlwx

By Kmlwx,
in Mid Atlantic

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poolz1
poolz1

Bro In law caught this beast of a bolt in Fenwick yesterday.  Too bad the neighbor's roof blocks part of the view but a pretty wild shot nonetheless.           

poolz1
poolz1

Lots of thunder, lightning and heavy rain.  No wind hardly at all.  Perfect rainbow storm with the sun breaking out as the clouds cleared to the west. Saw the rainbow and told my 12 yo daughter to tak

Hank Scorpio
Hank Scorpio

I was stuck in a meeting and couldn't get outside, but that Loudoun cell was looking pretty beastly from inside on approach. Thankful that the worst stayed just north of me

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Looking like an active late Monday afternoon and evening, especially for those north of DC.     CAPE doesn't appear to be tremendously impressive due to weak lapse rates, and shear is marginal, but downdraft CAPE looks quite good, so it's definitely at least a MRGL day with some potential for an upgrade to SLGT.     One thing that stands out on the 00Z guidance is that a lot of CAMs show multiple rounds of storms, so some flash flooding potential likely exists.

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Kmlwx

Kmlwx

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15 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Not really seeing the flooding potential on the NAM or HRRR. Seems like things are pretty progressive.

It's for the urban areas mainly that have seen pockets of very heavy rainfall lately and are very prone to runoff. A quick 1 to 3 inches of rain from a progressive storm will still cause pockets of urban flooding. It's not for major river flooding in this case. 

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jewell2188

jewell2188

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3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It's for the urban areas mainly that have seen pockets of very heavy rainfall lately and are very prone to runoff. A quick 1 to 3 inches of rain from a progressive storm will still cause pockets of urban flooding. It's not for major river flooding in this case. 

It would also seem a good portion of the area is primed for a major flood event at some point this summer due to a relatively wet season so far. Especially if we get some sort of tropical disturbance.

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19 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Not really seeing the flooding potential on the NAM or HRRR. Seems like things are pretty progressive.

     Definitely progressive, and it was correctly noted that this partially accounts for some areas that have been very wet in the past week, but there is actually some signal for several rounds of storms:

hrrr_ref_frzn_neus_fh10-10.thumb.gif.338972793b729f2dba089b350c0948b4.gif

 

           In this example, you have a lead intense line, followed by a bit of a break, but then followed by another high-reflectivity area.   And if you go 2 more hours, there is more redevelopment behind that second batch.     Not every CAM shows this, but the HRRR scenario would definitely cause some flooding issues.

 

 

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