2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[George BM]

  On 6/21/2022 at 12:24 PM, mappy said:

with 3 softball games a week, i could use a rainout tomorrow for a break hahaha. im too old to be playing so often 

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I could use an MCS. 

[Kmlwx]

Worth noting - solid CIPS severe signal at 168hrs on the 0z suite. 

[WxUSAF]

  On 6/21/2022 at 10:50 AM, mappy said:

Wooo storms!

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 Brief moderate rain with light winds and a rumble of thunder! 

[high risk]

  On 6/21/2022 at 2:47 PM, Kmlwx said:

Worth noting - solid CIPS severe signal at 168hrs on the 0z suite. 

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       I'm assuming that's with the strong front that looks to roll through next Monday?      The frontal timing looks off so far, but we obviously have 7 days to slow it down......

 

[batmanbrad]

we now have slight risk for both severe wx and flash flooding for tomorrow (the latter per WPC):

...Southern Tier of New York State into the Mid-Atlantic...
A slight risk area was added for potential of training convection 
in a north to south direction along and to the east of the well 
defined stationary front expected to lie north-south from central 
New York State, south into central Pennsylvania, central Maryland 
into northern Virginia.  PW values in the vicinity of this front 
will be in the 1.5 to 2+ standard deviation above the mean range, 
with hi res model consensus for convection to enhance and 
potentially train from north to south from Wednesday afternoon 
into Wednesday evening across these areas.  The slight risk area 
was drawn to best fit the high HREF neighborhood probabilities for 
1 and 2"+ amounts in the 1200 UTC Wednesday to 0000 UTC Thursday 
period, 40-90 and 30-80% respectively.  The slight risk was 
extended a bit farther south of the highest 12 hour probabilities 
to cover the urban areas from Baltimore to DC.

 

[Kmlwx]

  On 6/21/2022 at 7:42 PM, high risk said:

       I'm assuming that's with the strong front that looks to roll through next Monday?      The frontal timing looks off so far, but we obviously have 7 days to slow it down......

 

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Definitely ages away when it comes to severe weather prediction! But we will likely find a way to fail. Stood out to me as it's the boldest the colors have been over us in a while. 

[Kmlwx]

The NAM really focuses the threat west of the DC metro area. The Shenandoah region looks to have best chances on the latest 18z runs. 

[mappy]

  On 6/21/2022 at 10:27 PM, Kmlwx said:

The NAM really focuses the threat west of the DC metro area. The Shenandoah region looks to have best chances on the latest 18z runs. 

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Tommy T also was pushing the mostly west for storms narrative. I just need rain lol

[MN Transplant]

  On 6/21/2022 at 10:27 PM, Kmlwx said:

The NAM really focuses the threat west of the DC metro area. The Shenandoah region looks to have best chances on the latest 18z runs. 

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Such an odd setup with the easterly flow off the Atlantic ruining the I95 chances.

[Kmlwx]

  On 6/21/2022 at 11:53 PM, MN Transplant said:

Such an odd setup with the easterly flow off the Atlantic ruining the I95 chances.

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Definitely one of the more strange sim reflectivity plots I've seen before. Still think a good chunk of the area will see precip - but I'm not sure there will be any sort of sustained severe threat for anyone in the immediate metro area. 

[high risk]

  On 6/22/2022 at 12:07 AM, Kmlwx said:

Definitely one of the more strange sim reflectivity plots I've seen before. Still think a good chunk of the area will see precip - but I'm not sure there will be any sort of sustained severe threat for anyone in the immediate metro area. 

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        Agreed.   Looking at the various CAMs, there isn't going to be very much CAPE available on the east side of the Potomac.    The best SVR risk is likely to be west of DC.

[jewell2188]

  On 6/22/2022 at 2:34 AM, high risk said:

        Agreed.   Looking at the various CAMs, there isn't going to be very much CAPE available on the east side of the Potomac.    The best SVR risk is likely to be west of DC.

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How about the flood risk west of 95? Mike Thomas highlighted earlier the focus of the flood threat would be just west of DC give or take. 

 

[Lucketts Life]

  On 6/22/2022 at 3:18 AM, jewell2188 said:

How about the flood risk west of 95? Mike Thomas highlighted earlier the focus of the flood threat would be just west of DC give or take. 

 

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Flood watch now up for that west side of DC. 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Seems like this year the axis of heavy rain sets up further north and east from that the guidance says. Wonder if that holds true today.

[osfan24]

It's probably wrong but the NAM wants to get things going in the metros before lunchtime.

[Kmlwx]

My temperature is heading upward pretty fast now. Last 15-20 minutes I've gained like 3 degrees. I wouldn't be surprised if the flood watch gets extended maybe one more tier to the east - going to be an interesting day of radar-watching. 

[nw baltimore wx]

  On 6/22/2022 at 12:53 PM, osfan24 said:

It's probably wrong but the NAM wants to get things going in the metros before lunchtime.

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2 - 2.5” across central MD by tomorrow evening?!? That would be awesome, though I’d be happy with half that.

[Eskimo Joe]

  On 6/22/2022 at 1:00 PM, Kmlwx said:

My temperature is heading upward pretty fast now. Last 15-20 minutes I've gained like 3 degrees. I wouldn't be surprised if the flood watch gets extended maybe one more tier to the east - going to be an interesting day of radar-watching. 

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Bit more sunshine than anticipated. 

[Scuddz]

If the cloud motions are indicative of where the front/storms will be focused, I would definitely include DC metro in the flood watch.

[Eskimo Joe]

HRRR is mostly west of US 15, NAMNest is I-81 to I-95.

[MN Transplant]

We are going to miss these HRRR vs NAM battles when they unify them in the future.

 

I’m on team HRRR today.

[osfan24]

Latest NAM looks nothing like previous run. Activity is delayed and mostly a miss unless significantly west of the cities.

[Kmlwx]

  On 6/22/2022 at 2:04 PM, osfan24 said:

Latest NAM looks nothing like previous run. Activity is delayed and mostly a miss unless significantly west of the cities.

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The metro still gets some narrow "bands" or cells that go through but closer to 0-1z. The NAM nest still has some 2 inch amounts localized in that. It's definitely going to be a game of miles in some places today. 

[87storms]

  On 6/22/2022 at 2:04 PM, osfan24 said:

Latest NAM looks nothing like previous run. Activity is delayed and mostly a miss unless significantly west of the cities.

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good, i might be able to sneak an early bike ride in.  got some new tires, so if it rains i'm ready.

on a side note, this continues to be one of the most bizarre weather patterns i've ever seen here.  the atmosphere has absolutely no idea whether it wants to be late september, mid May, or early august.  I haven't been following the indices, but I'm assuming this is some sort of a blocky pattern that cold lovers would be raving about in january/february.  i'm ready for classic dmv summer to begin.

[osfan24]

  On 6/22/2022 at 2:20 PM, 87storms said:

good, i might be able to sneak an early bike ride in.  got some new tires, so if it rains i'm ready.

on a side note, this continues to be one of the most bizarre weather patterns i've ever seen here.  the atmosphere has absolutely no idea whether it wants to be late september, mid May, or early august.  I haven't been following the indices, but I'm assuming this is some sort of a blocky pattern that cold lovers would be raving about in january/february.  i'm ready for classic dmv summer to begin.

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Already got my run in this morning!

I'll push off the DMV summer for as long as possible. It will show up inevitably, so the longer we can go with beautiful weekends like we just had, the better.

[87storms]

  On 6/22/2022 at 2:25 PM, osfan24 said:

Already got my run in this morning!

I'll push off the DMV summer for as long as possible. It will show up inevitably, so the longer we can go with beautiful weekends like we just had, the better.

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agreed.  I'm just glad we've moved on from 55 and windy lol.  Definitely feels like we had a fall, winter, fall, late spring pattern.  Pretty light on storms so far as well, for the most part.  Will see if today changes that and it kicks off typical Summer.

[Kmlwx]

Roughly along and west of I-95 there is some CAPE beginning to increase. Nothing ridiculous so far - but still an increase. LI values are actually not bad right in the metro area as well. 

[Kmlwx]

Flood watch expanded

[high risk]

I still like the SVR threat generally being confined to areas west of an axis that bisects DC, although it looks like it could spill eastward by a county.    I do feel better, however, about chances for heavier rain for those of us on the east side of town.    The heaviest rain in the late afternoon will be west of DC, but there seems to be agreement on a lot of showers on the east side of town overnight through Thursday morning.

[Kmlwx]

  On 6/22/2022 at 2:35 PM, high risk said:

I still like the SVR threat generally being confined to areas west of an axis that bisects DC, although it looks like it could spill eastward by a county.    I do feel better, however, about chances for heavier rain for those of us on the east side of town.    The heaviest rain in the late afternoon will be west of DC, but there seems to be agreement on a lot of showers on the east side of town overnight through Thursday morning.

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It definitely seems like a setup where if you're in the right (or wrong) place, you could get trained over pretty good this afternoon and evening. I don't *think* it'll be anything like the training I saw in June 2006, but if the railroad tracks align it could be a hazardous afternoon for the usual standing water/flooding locations. Guessing at least 5 idiots will require water rescue from vehicles today. Will guess 3 pickup trucks and two minivans.