2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[Stormfly]

I see some impressive action but not yet convinced...

I see getting stuck with a 4-6-7-10 split and I can only throw my spare ball down the center...

[Kay]

overcast all day but finally a hint o' sun

[WeatherShak]

Watch hoisted.

[high risk]

6 minutes ago, WeatherShak said:

Watch hoisted.

    Yep, all the way to midnight, to account for both the ongoing activity and a possible line dropping south out of PA after dark.

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, high risk said:

    Yep, all the way to midnight, to account for both the ongoing activity and a possible line dropping south out of PA after dark.

The secondary round disco had one sentence lol

[yoda]

I'm watching the storms in OH for later... that should be where our second round will be coming from, right?  or the ones in NW PA?

[Kmlwx]

Seems like they are hitting a wall lol

[AmericanWxFreak]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Seems like they are hitting a wall lol

Yeah I was also noticing that…

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Yeah I was also noticing that…

Appears to be right around where the sharp cutoff in instability is. It makes sense for the most part. We'll see if anything can scoot east more. 

[AmericanWxFreak]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Appears to be right around where the sharp cutoff in instability is. It makes sense for the most part. We'll see if anything can scoot east more. 

bummer. Based on the way initiation was going, seemed like we were in a good spot. My new west facing balcony is begging for something nice.

[Hank Scorpio]

Lots of good lightning and loud thunder with that stretched out blob moving into Leesburg. Great example of a classic afternoon summer thunderstorm 

[Kmlwx]

6 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

bummer. Based on the way initiation was going, seemed like we were in a good spot. My new west facing balcony is begging for something nice.

[JW21]

Shenandoah County looking East over the Blue Ridge

[yoda]

23 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'm watching the storms in OH for later... that should be where our second round will be coming from, right?  or the ones in NW PA?

Storm moving SE into the extreme N WV panhandle has been hailing pretty good and is warned for hail to golf ball size... would be in LWX CWA in an hour or 2

[high risk]

26 minutes ago, yoda said:

I'm watching the storms in OH for later... that should be where our second round will be coming from, right?  or the ones in NW PA?

    Northwest PA, but it's worth noting that the recent HRRR and NAM Nest runs don't like our chances.

[WEATHER53]

Just heard my first rumble 

[hstorm]

34 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Yeah I was also noticing that…

Stuck in the middle here in Great Falls.  Thunder rumbling and dark skies off to the west.  Clear skies to the east.  No change for at least the past 45 minutes.

[AmericanWxFreak]

21 minutes ago, high risk said:

    Northwest PA, but it's worth noting that the recent HRRR and NAM Nest runs don't like our chances.

aaaaaand on to the next one 

[Eskimo Joe]

I'm really skeptical that we see any action east of I-81 this evening:
 

1) The line that's being warned this evening is in response to a bit of a lee trough that's feeding off the boundary draped over the Potomac River. We're losing sun now and it will be tough for air mass recovery

2.) East of US 15, the atmosphere is pretty capped so we might get some elevated convection with an okay light show tonight, but that's probably the ceiling for what we can expect. Admittedly, the CAMS has been having trouble with some of this activity, but we're kind of on the outside looking in here.

[WEATHER53]

53 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Seems like they are hitting a wall lol

Kenny I wondering if fact that Annapolis was 72-75 most afternoon and IAD 82-85 and if what caused that is causing the die off also?

[Eskimo Joe]

Tops on the storm just NW of Culpepper are pushing 60,000 ft. Definitely a wet microburst potential with that cell and certainly warrants the SVR.

[high risk]

Several recent lightning strikes over Howard/PG Counties, well removed from he precip.

[AmericanWxFreak]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

Several recent lightning strikes over Howard/PG Counties, well removed from he precip.

Just posted in Obs thread about that. I am sitting outside and looked down and thought I was seeing shit lol then heard thunder. 

[George BM]

1 minute ago, high risk said:

Several recent lightning strikes over Howard/PG Counties, well removed from he precip.

Just noticed that from radarscope wondering whether it was a glitch. So you heard thunder from them?

[MN Transplant]

57 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I wasn’t paying much attention today but was optimistic based on the radar a while back.  Then I saw this.  Sure enough, completely dying as it moves east.

[high risk]

Just now, George BM said:

Just noticed that from radarscope wondering whether it was a glitch. So you heard thunder from them?

       Yes.   Saw the lightning, followed by loud thunder.     Was not expecting that.

[MN Transplant]

4 minutes ago, high risk said:

Several recent lightning strikes over Howard/PG Counties, well removed from he precip.

Those can be dangerous since people aren’t expecting them.

[yoda]

Golf ball sized hail and winds to 70 mph in latest STW

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
512 PM EDT Thu Jun 16 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northeastern Madison County in northwestern Virginia...
  South central Rappahannock County in northwestern Virginia...
  Western Culpeper County in northern Virginia...

* Until 600 PM EDT.

* At 512 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 7 miles southeast
  of Sperryville, or 10 miles northwest of Culpeper, moving southeast
  at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 70 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect wind damage to trees and power lines. Hail is
           large enough to dent and damage vehicles. Some hail
           damage to roofs, siding, and windows is possible.

* Locations impacted include...
  Culpeper, Castleton, Catalpa, Slate Mills, Brandy Station,
  Woodville, Winston, Cardova, Reva, Rixeyville, Alanthus, Boston and
  Five Forks.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 7828 3866 7820 3854 7784 3836 7800
TIME...MOT...LOC 2112Z 300DEG 12KT 3855 7817

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

[AmericanWxFreak]

Since there isn’t a ton going on locally, can we appreciate the cell blasting thru CPA near Benezette? Good god. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Uh, watch box is canceled?