2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[Maestrobjwa]

33 minutes ago, yoda said:

Ji hasn't canceled winter yet?

Nah canceling this winter would be my job, lol (if the Nina stays that is). I've already half-canceled it mentally!

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

NAM nest (18z) disagrees but pushes a nice line through Thur PM - decent UH signature right through the metro as well. But we all know that this far out it doesn't mean much. 

Decent amount of large hail analog dates showing up on SARS for the NAM/NAM nest 18z run soundings. Thur and Fri are where my attention is at the moment.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

12z NAM nest looked potentially fun at the end of its run for Thur night. Timing wouldn't be the best for us - but sure better than last night's event

HRRR also is putting something through

[yoda]

Those are some ridiculous soundings once again on the 18z NAM for 21z THUR to 03z FRI (but particularly 00z FRI aka Thursday night at 8pm)

[Kmlwx]

53 minutes ago, yoda said:

Those are some ridiculous soundings once again on the 18z NAM for 21z THUR to 03z FRI (but particularly 00z FRI aka Thursday night at 8pm)

Think I saw some loaded gun type soundings when I peeked earlier. Some inhibition to deal with it seems though

[snowfan]

So about Thursday night. Let’s do this…

 

[Stormfly]

Needs to be about 40 miles north and east.

[mappy]

Ava mentioned tomorrow's potential. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Good animation of how we aren't in a favorable setup for a big MCS or derecho with this pattern. The ridge axis is too far west. We need the ridge to set up shop over western or central Kentucky for things to work out here:

 

[osfan24]

NAM seems to like Thursday morning and then Thursday evening.

[Scraff]

2 hours ago, osfan24 said:

NAM seems to like Thursday morning and then Thursday evening.

Summer or winter, it’s still the NAM. LOL. 

I just want some good thunder boomers. I don’t need every damn storm to be severe, though they do tend to be what I’m looking for (and it seems like we have them all the time now).  I just don’t need damaging storms (my house or anyone else’s). 

[Eskimo Joe]

HRRR and NAM insistent on dropping an MCS or something like it through Delmarva and east of US 15 around morning Thursday. 

[high risk]

27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

HRRR and NAM insistent on dropping an MCS or something like it through Delmarva and east of US 15 around morning Thursday. 

       Very consistent signal in model runs late this afternoon and early evening.    The SVR potential seems to be low, but I'd be fine with some heavy rain and noise.

[Kmlwx]

Decent amount of lightning with this morning activity. My PWS lightning sensor is showing 22 strikes detected in the last hour or so. 

[Kmlwx]

Cell near Odenton has tops near or above 50kft. 

[GramaxRefugee]

Morning T-storm offered plenty of thunder but not much else until one close zap at about 6:30, plus about 0.26" rain.

Currently overcast.

[osfan24]

2 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Cell near Odenton has tops near or above 50kft. 

Yeah that was a pretty impressive storm. I went for a run this morning and could see huge tops from that storm.

[mappy]

some rumbles as stuff to my west slides by. won't be a direct hit. 

[yoda]

13z SPC OTLK now includes all of N VA north of around EZF and includes BWI/DC metro in SLGT risk... 2/15/15

5% TOR now includes C and W MD and E WV into extreme NW VA

[09-10 analogy]

On 6/13/2022 at 7:54 PM, MN Transplant said:

Yeah, we are looking at Chicago and north.

 

edit - speaking of which, damn!

 

That was a hell of a storm. Tops to maybe 70k! Like to dial up something about 3/4 of that around here for the 10 year anniversary of the big D.

[high risk]

50 minutes ago, yoda said:

13z SPC OTLK now includes all of N VA north of around EZF and includes BWI/DC metro in SLGT risk... 2/15/15

5% TOR now includes C and W MD and E WV into extreme NW VA

           Seems to be 2 scenarios:

    1)   Supercells form in western PA this afternoon, and a QLCS emerges and drops southeast into our area (6Z NAM Nest and 12Z ARW2).     Shear is better to our west and northwest where a greater TOR threat would exist.    We'd locally have a shot at damaging winds, although the system might be weakening

    2)   The PA storms never really get rolling, but some scattered storms develop locally late this afternoon, with some wind threat (12Z HRRR).

         Of course, both scenarios for us are dependent upon clearing out the morning clouds.

 

 

[yoda]

9 minutes ago, high risk said:

           Seems to be 2 scenarios:

    1)   Supercells form in western PA this afternoon, and a QLCS emerges and drops southeast into our area (6Z NAM Nest and 12Z ARW2).     Shear is better to our west and northwest where a greater TOR threat would exist.    We'd locally have a shot at damaging winds, although the system might be weakening

    2)   The PA storms never really get rolling, but some scattered storms develop locally late this afternoon, with some wind threat (12Z HRRR).

         Of course, both scenarios for us are dependent upon clearing out the morning clouds.

 

 

Clearing here with nice sun

[yoda]

Well that's not a super helpful 12z IAD sounding per SPC site... anybody have a better one?  Says everything is M except for a few things

[yoda]

Updated morning AFD from LWX

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A cluster of storms continues to move across far northeast MD.
Given recent radar imagery and trends upstream, main threat is
for a brief period of soaking rain. The 12Z RAOB from IAD had a
PW of just under 2.0" indicating an anomalously moist airmass.

Issued a heat advisory for portions of the eastern panhandle of
WV, western MD, and northern Shenandoah Valley. A similar setup
as yesterday should result in criteria being met for several
hours this afternoon (heat indices of 100-104 degrees). The
anomalously high dew points as of mid-morning in the mid 70s
have already resulted in heat index values in the mid 90s in
this area. If outdoors today, stay hydrated and practice heat
safety. See weather.gov/heat for more info.

Regarding the severe weather potential today, there are two
periods of interest. The first is from late this afternoon into
this evening along a lee pressure trough. High res guidance has
trended in a more robust environment this afternoon from US-15
east with sfc CAPE of 2000 J/kg+ and deep layer shear of 35-45
kts. Should any storm form in this area/environment, it could
quickly become severe posing a damaging wind and large hail
threat. These storms would also likely be efficient rain
producers due to the anomalously moist airmass, though storms
should remain progressive to some extent.

The second period of interest is late this evening into the
early parts of tonight. A cold front will be positioned across
the southern Great Lakes. Storms will develop along the Lake
Erie lake breeze and progress southeast. Uncertainty arises with
the areal extent of the storms in part due to the warm air aloft
since these storms will not be on the actual cold front. Will
continue to monitor this potential as storms approach the region
from Pennsylvania. Additionally, the timing of this approaching
convective activity may be after peak heating.

[yoda]

Saw this on twitter... so thought I'd share

 

[yoda]

12z NAM NEST goes nuts from DC metro to BWI metro from 00z to 06z

[AdamHLG]

If we are going to need destabilization for severe this afternoon / evening it has not even started yet in central Maryland.  Extensive cloud cover and actually feels cool outside.   

[Kmlwx]

8 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z NAM NEST goes nuts from DC metro to BWI metro from 00z to 06z

Looks like some of that may/will not be surface rooted, though. Some CINH is indicated from the maps on the CoD site and the wind gust product is pretty paltry. 

Lots of disagreement in the modeling 

[Kmlwx]

Good clearing is shown on visible satellite around the Potomac. Clouds are persisting NE of the 270 corridor a bit. 

[nj2va]

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Good clearing is shown on visible satellite around the Potomac. Clouds are persisting NE of the 270 corridor a bit. 

Yep sun is out here.