2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Very much meh-worthy IMBY. Maybe the MCV can churn something up. 

Very disappointing after watching earlier this evening into the night

[biodhokie]

I think that was the DC'ist DC split I ever did see.

[yoda]

So... Wednesday maybe? Lol

Or maybe Thursday?

[Kmlwx]

22 minutes ago, yoda said:

Very disappointing after watching earlier this evening into the night

Just goes to show you that no matter how consistent the models are on something coming through - these MCS-type events are never, ever, ever a guarantee. Add to that the stable overnight hours...it came through at really the worst time for instability...this is what you get. And honestly the NAM/NAM nest are pretty much nada for the remainder of the day as well. 

CIPS looks as quiet as it has looked in a while through the entire run timeframe. But yes - maybe some iso severe later this week. 

[Kmlwx]

11z HRRR has no additional precip for the remainder of the day. The fat lady has sung. 

[high risk]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Just goes to show you that no matter how consistent the models are on something coming through - these MCS-type events are never, ever, ever a guarantee. Add to that the stable overnight hours...it came through at really the worst time for instability...this is what you get. And honestly the NAM/NAM nest are pretty much nada for the remainder of the day as well. 

             You're spot on about the instability, which was always a question for this event, as it should be for something arriving here in the early morning hours.    In terms of warm-season early morning convection, I can only remember a couple of legit severe events here in 20+ years.

              I disagree a little bit about the consistency of the model solutions.    Yes, most guidance advertised an MCC rolling through the Mid-Atlantic, but the location and details were extremely inconsistent, even hour-to-hour in the HRRR.    The problem was that multiple storm complexes formed to our west and northwest yesterday and yesterday evening, and the models couldn't agree on which one would be the show here.    Lots of people got super excited about the organized complex in eastern OH yesterday evening, but the models that drove a big complex through here were actually developing it from a different batch of storms in Michigan.     They never handled the Ohio feature well, and I lost confidence in the setup for us as a result.    I think that while the thin line that rolled through the northern areas this morning came out of that OH feature, that messed up the feature behind it, as the Michigan storms tracked more south along an instability gradient that was likely altered by the Ohio storms.

               Regardless, you're completely correct that MCS activity is never a sure thing.

[Kleimax]

Interesting line firing up on the Bay

[Kmlwx]

Just now, high risk said:

             You're spot on about the instability, which was always a question for this event, as it should be for something arriving here in the early morning hours.    In terms of warm-season early morning convection, I can only remember a couple of legit severe events here in 20+ years.

              I disagree a little bit about the consistency of the model solutions.    Yes, most guidance advertised an MCC rolling through the Mid-Atlantic, but the location and details were extremely inconsistent, even hour-to-hour in the HRRR.    The problem was that multiple storm complexes formed to our west and northwest yesterday and yesterday evening, and the models couldn't agree on which one would be the show here.    Lots of people got super excited about the organized complex in eastern OH yesterday evening, but the models that drove a big complex through here were actually developing it from a different batch of storms in Michigan.     They never handled the Ohio feature well, and I lost confidence in the setup for us as a result.    I think that while the thin line that rolled through the northern areas this morning came out of that OH feature, that messed up the feature behind it, as the Michigan storms tracked more south along an instability gradient that was likely altered by the Ohio storms.

               Regardless, you're completely correct that MCS activity is never a sure thing.

Yeah - I should have been more clear on my model solution statement - I was more referring to the fact that almost all models pushed some sort of activity through the whole area - intensity ignored and also which complex would be "ours" - just the general idea of some semblance of a big complex (even if elevated, pushing through). I woke up around 4am and was stuck at how anemic (other than N MD) everything looked. Was expecting a solid line of rain but sub-severe. I'm not sure I got any meaningful precip here in eastern MoCo. 

I think we all have to remember that the models have trouble with big lumbering winter storms that span hundreds of miles...why would they perform admirably in situations where small-scale storms and differences in tens of miles mean huge differences in the end result? 

We are a long way off from having reliably good predictions of "events" like this. I will say that I think SPC did a pretty good job - glad they didn't expand the enhanced into our area (and we were even mostly outside the slight yesterday as well). It was a good forecast. I know we all make fun of how "in the moment updating" they were in 2012...but THIS is exactly why you don't broad brush a moderate risk along the entire "potential" track of an MCS. It just isn't high enough confidence. 

It seemed like last night they were taking the same approach (even with the late introduction of the moderate risk) and this time their conservative forecast panned out really well. Imagine if they had painted us all in ENH or MOD only to have this end result this morning. 

[Kmlwx]

Just now, Kleimax said:

Interesting line firing up on the Bay

Probably aided by the MCV!

[Eskimo Joe]

Without a stout EML and solid cold pool to maintain continuous forward momentum, it's almost impossible to sustain an MCS or derecho over the mountains. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, biodhokie said:

I think that was the DC'ist DC split I ever did see.

Columbia split too

[Kmlwx]

The ensembles do continue to support a pattern that could sustain NW flow-style chances into the long range. So we should still have potential severe days. I keep wondering if there are parallels to winter forecasting...this was sort of the entry to the pattern and we mostly missed. The more the pattern flexes and sustains, we should score a decent severe day or two if it really has staying power. The obvious caveats are the exact configuration of the ridge/ridge axis, energy cresting the top and coming our way, EML involvement and of course time of day (as we saw last night). 

Like I said about my best friend CIPS - it's pretty quiet...but am assuming it will light up from time to time if this pattern sets in and sticks. 

[SnowenOutThere]

14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I keep wondering if there are parallels to winter forecasting

Yeah, we fail at both. 

[George BM]

My two amateur cents about this 'event':

To @high risks point the HRRR was doing a very bad job with the handling and even initialization of the Chicago-Ohio MCS.

@Kmlwx with great similar points about it.

By mid-evening it was apparent that the HRRR was significantly underdoing the Chicago-Ohio MCS which would, obviously, in turn result in a less organized MCS following it from northern MI (the one the HRRR kept keying on to hit our region).

Something else that I'll like to point out that I noticed were the storms that formed early in the afternoon yesterday in Indiana. No, not the one that brought a 98mph wind gust to Fort Wayne, IN, but the storms that grew upscale into an MCS that moved ESE through WV and into the central Appalachians by midnight (same activity that got @wxdude64 some late evening action). What that MCS created was a region of limited/no instability, especially in WV. In the time-sensitive loop below you can see how the MCS that hit Chicago and Fort Wayne splits into two separate convective line segments as it hits this 'used up' atmosphere with the SW segment going SSE through western WV and into far southwestern VA and the NE segment moving east into northern/central MD and southern PA.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-eastcoast-comp_radar-200-1-25-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

The Cincinnati to WV MCS also left an MCV which may have tugged the OH MCV a little further south further limiting the impressive NW mid-level winds over us and shifting it southwest although I admittedly know far to little about this to say this is occurred for sure. 

In my opinion these things are what left most of VA without any real convection this morning. Of course, there are probably other more subtle features that affected things but those are the main ones I caught with my limited knowledge compared to actual meteorologists.  

[Kmlwx]

Isn't this place so pleasant in the non-winter months  - great discussion/analysis from everyone and none of the bickering. Refreshing! 

[biodhokie]

24 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Isn't this place so pleasant in the non-winter months  - great discussion/analysis from everyone and none of the bickering. Refreshing! 

More chances, more hits of dopamine when the we get CIPS signals to keep us going when we expect nothing and still are left disappointed

[Kmlwx]

We likely still have a few more weeks before we get into the climo period of the year when things shift over to high CAPE and extremely meager shear days. June is still meaty in the sense that we can get good shear with good CAPE to overlap. Exceptions of course can exist with potent systems and of course any tropical systems can throw more wildcards in...but past early July things get much more "pulsey" 

[high risk]

26 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

We likely still have a few more weeks before we get into the climo period of the year when things shift over to high CAPE and extremely meager shear days. June is still meaty in the sense that we can get good shear with good CAPE to overlap. Exceptions of course can exist with potent systems and of course any tropical systems can throw more wildcards in...but past early July things get much more "pulsey" 

         Agreed.    Peak climo here for higher-end severe in my mind is roughly May 15 - June 20 or so, but I won't argue with you wanting to extend that out a bit further.    As you noted, a strong system in July/August can still get the job done, but they're tougher to come by.

[Kmlwx]

9 minutes ago, high risk said:

         Agreed.    Peak climo here for higher-end severe in my mind is roughly May 15 - June 20 or so, but I won't argue with you wanting to extend that out a bit further.    As you noted, a strong system in July/August can still get the job done, but they're tougher to come by.

I think your timeframe is probably more accurate - takes a good pattern (potentially like we are seeing) to extend the good severe season further. 

I also will add that I am not downplaying those pulse-severe days. Those can certainly be the days where you get one or two rogue cells that go bonkers for a little while before gusting out and spawning a few outflow boundary storms that are less severe. Being that severe weather is pretty small scale weather...individual memories of various severe events can vary widely. 

A person who gets under a ridiculous (but isolated) pulse storm might remember a day as being "the worst severe storm" they ever saw...while that cell may have only produced 2-5 severe reports and is a snoozer for the rest of us. 

The rare 2012s, 2008s and Ivan events are the kind of ones that stick in ALL our minds as being area-wide impactors. 

My "gut feeling" which admittedly is worth very little says that we get 1-2 area-wide "decent to significant' severe events before our climo dies off for the summer. Prepared to be ridiculed when we fail miserably. 

[H2O]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Isn't this place so pleasant in the non-winter months  - great discussion/analysis from everyone and none of the bickering. Refreshing! 

I didn’t ANY storms from all this hype!!  Severe sucks!!!

[Kmlwx]

12z NAM nest looked potentially fun at the end of its run for Thur night. Timing wouldn't be the best for us - but sure better than last night's event

[Kay]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Isn't this place so pleasant in the non-winter months  - great discussion/analysis from everyone and none of the bickering. Refreshing! 

(wanders in from another subforum) looks like a fail for you guys it is ROCKIN here

[Kmlwx]

12 minutes ago, H2O said:

I didn’t ANY storms from all this hype!!  Severe sucks!!!

How dare you deb. GTFO of the subforum and go make a micro sub-forum for yourself. 
 

SO DONE WITH THIS PLACE. I GUESS I CAN'T POST BECAUSE YOU PEOPLE ARE SO SENSITIVE. 

*cries in corner*

[high risk]

On a separate note, I'm struggling to figure out why the SLGT today continues to include the DC-Baltimore region, with MRGL up into southern PA.   I would have expected that northern/northeastern edge to be moved back to the southwest on the 1630 outlook.

[wxdude64]

The train is on the tracks down this way, storms early this morning and more here now, all running in a SE direction. NWS Blackburg has several STW's up and a FFW also due to the continued track.

[Scraff]

4 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yeah, we fail at both. 

We should probably just cancel summer. You know winter cancel is coming soon too. 

[H2O]

Lets cancel Fall first then winter

[yoda]

21 minutes ago, H2O said:

Lets cancel Fall first then winter

Ji hasn't canceled winter yet?

[yoda]

Seems like our next chance for severe storms is tomorrow night per the afternoon LWX AFD 

[Kmlwx]

15 minutes ago, yoda said:

Seems like our next chance for severe storms is tomorrow night per the afternoon LWX AFD 

NAM nest (18z) disagrees but pushes a nice line through Thur PM - decent UH signature right through the metro as well. But we all know that this far out it doesn't mean much.