2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[Stormfly]

Can see frequent flashes 75 miles to our south-southwest from that cell near Lake Ridge.  (Seen on tower PTZ not by eyes on ground)

[AmericanWxFreak]

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

It's a real wait and see kind of thing. Really nice storms up there in IN/OH/MI

Is that the portion that may later affect the CMD area as opposed to the bow in OH/WV?

[Kmlwx]

1 minute ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Is that the portion that may later affect the CMD area as opposed to the bow in OH/WV?

MCSes are really hard to predict. But yes, the models seem to have the cluster I mentioned for us tomorrow AM. Would think that complex into WV will head too far south for most of us.

[AmericanWxFreak]

1 minute ago, Kmlwx said:

MCSes are really hard to predict. But yes, the models seem to have the cluster I mentioned for us tomorrow AM. Would think that complex into WV will head too far south for most of us.

Yeah that’s what I was thinking about the leading bows trajectory. Here’s to hoping that second can keep it together. Pretty soupy out still even after that small cell came through a few hours ago. 

[Kmlwx]

00z HRRR (running now) strongly favors Virginia for the morning MCS. 

[yoda]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

00z HRRR (running now) strongly favors Virginia for the morning MCS. 

@Weather Will posted it in the disco thread instead of in here lol

[Kmlwx]

Looks like almost all of the warnings on the complex are "considerable" wording now. Impressive. At least from short term radar trends, the more south solutions seem to be valid. But these things can change on a dime. 

[yoda]

STWatch issued for much of Ohio until 3 am with 80/60 wind probs

 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 361
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1000 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     Central, northern and east central Ohio

   * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1000 PM
     until 300 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
       mph likely
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Clusters of severe storms will continue to move quickly
   east-southeastward across Ohio through the early overnight hours. 
   The environment is favorable for swaths of damaging winds up to 75
   mph, and the strongest embedded storms could also produce isolated
   large hail up to 1.5 inches in diameter.  An isolated tornado or two
   may occur with embedded circulations.

[Eskimo Joe]

Stick a fork in it for any decent action in MD tomorrow.

[high risk]

I throw my hands in the air on this one.    The CAMs that bring an organized MCS through here tomorrow morning generate that system out of the storms currently in western Michigan.   But they don't have a good handle on the ongoing storms in northwest Ohio.     Could the Ohio storms end up being the show here in the Mid-Atlantic?       This is so complicated, and the outcome here is dependent upon the exact evolution upstream - this explains why the HRRR keeps bouncing around hour to hour.

[WxWatcher007]

Wild night out west. A ton of wind reports.

[WxWatcher007]

 

[jacindc]

Is this the same system that clobbered parts of Wyoming and South Dakota? I'm getting reports from family of just crazy damage, not to mention the big flooding in Yellowstone.

[yoda]

weee

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1104 PM EDT Mon Jun 13 2022

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Putnam County in west central Ohio...
  South central Paulding County in west central Ohio...
  Van Wert County in west central Ohio...
  West central Allen County in west central Ohio...

* Until 1145 PM EDT.

* At 1104 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Convoy, or
  near Van Wert, moving southeast at 35 mph.

  THIS IS A DESTRUCTIVE STORM!.

  HAZARD...80 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be heavily damaged. Expect
           considerable damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles.
           Extensive tree damage and power outages are likely.

* Locations impacted include...
  Van Wert, Delphos, Convoy, Ottoville, Ohio City, Middlebury, Middle
  Point, Fort Jennings, Scott, Venedocia, Elgin, Wetzel, Tipton,
  Cavett, Dull and Jonestown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. This storm has produced widespread
wind damage across Allen county Indiana with 100 mph winds reported
at the Fort Wayne airport at 1040 pm EDT. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a
sturdy structure and stay away from windows!

&&

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, jacindc said:

Is this the same system that clobbered parts of Wyoming and South Dakota? I'm getting reports from family of just crazy damage, not to mention the big flooding in Yellowstone.

Different thunderstorm complex. This one got going in Wisconsin.

 

[wxdude64]

Under warning here now for the line pushing out of WV...

[yoda]

11pm OBS across the region has DPs in the 72-76 range for most stations across VA/DC/MD

[jewell2188]

I would expect watches incoming soon. 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

I would expect watches incoming soon. 

[yoda]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 364
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1245 AM EDT Tue Jun 14 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     The western Maryland Panhandle
     Extreme southeast Ohio
     Southwestern Pennsylvania
     Northern West Virginia

   * Effective this Tuesday morning from 1245 AM until 600 AM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

   SUMMARY...A well-developed squall line with bowing characteristics
   will likely persist for a few more hours in a zone north of prior
   convection across West Virginia.  Damaging winds up to 70 mph will
   be the main threat, though isolated large hail may also occur for
   the strongest embedded updrafts.

[RDM]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

11pm OBS across the region has DPs in the 72-76 range for most stations across VA/DC/MD

Yup - just posted watches for western MD and northeaster WVA - just to the west of Winchester.  

The system is still very active as it crosses eastern Ohio.  There's a ton of lightning on the real-time viewer.  Parts of Ohio are getting nailed now with a pronounced bow-echo on the front end and a secondary one lagging behind a bit to the SW of the main front.   Pretty impressive.  

[SnowenOutThere]

6 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Stick a fork in it for any decent action in MD tomorrow.

[MDphotog]

There is just a bit of a light show going on out there.  Not sure about wind, slept through that part.  Very impressive storms.

[CAPE]

38 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

He is probably right for the most part. There will be some storms this morning into early afternoon, triggered by remnant MCS outflow/ interaction with the frontal boundary that lies across the region. Certainly could still see some isolated to scattered wind damage esp with any convection that occurs towards midday with additional heating. 

[aldie 22]

8 hours ago, leesburg 04 said:

I remain skeptical 

Always the best bet for my area

[mappy]

Nice storm to wake up to

[North Balti Zen]

8 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Stick a fork in it for any decent action in MD tomorrow.

I’m looking at radar from vacation in northern Michigan and this doesn’t seem right…

[mappy]

15 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I’m looking at radar from vacation in northern Michigan and this doesn’t seem right…

You missed a good one! So much thunder 

[North Balti Zen]

Temp hasn’t gotten over 64 here since I arrived Saturday. Decent trade off. 

[Kmlwx]

Very much meh-worthy IMBY. Maybe the MCV can churn something up.