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2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)


Kmlwx
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28 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

However...using the watch box rather than county outline, the northern line of the watch is literally walking distance from MBY. So I will just say I'm impacted. :weenie: 

That’s what I do when it stops at the PA line lol

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
659 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  South central Goochland County in central Virginia...
  North central Amelia County in central Virginia...
  Central Powhatan County in central Virginia...

* Until 730 PM EDT.

* At 658 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Macon, or near Powhatan, moving northeast at 40
  mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Sabot and Manakin around 720 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Goodwins Store, Flat Rock, Crozier, Fine Creek Mills, Jefferson,
Giles Mill, Subletts, Genito and Worshams.
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This could reach DC metro in 90 mins or so...

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
701 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Northwestern Louisa County in central Virginia...
  Northeastern Cumberland County in central Virginia...
  Northwestern Goochland County in central Virginia...
  Fluvanna County in central Virginia...

* Until 745 PM EDT.

* At 701 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 6 miles west of Lake Monticello to near Centenary to
  near Dillwyn, moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
  Fork Union and Lake Monticello around 715 PM EDT.
  Troy around 720 PM EDT.
  Palmyra around 725 PM EDT.
  Kents Store, Boswells Tavern and Lakeside Village around 735 PM
  EDT.
  Cartersville, Columbia, Duncan and Ferncliff around 740 PM EDT.
  Fife around 745 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include Green
Springs, Shores, Central Plains, Bremo Bluff, Cohasset, Waldrop,
Tabscott, Trevilians, Hardware and Wilmington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Please report severe weather by calling 757-899-2415, posting to the
NWS Wakefield Facebook page, or using Twitter @NWSWAKEFIELDVA.

&&

LAT...LON 3806 7826 3813 7821 3814 7812 3815 7809
      3792 7799 3767 7804 3758 7829 3764 7825
      3769 7824 3774 7843 3776 7847 3780 7849
TIME...MOT...LOC 2301Z 240DEG 29KT 3790 7846 3773 7842 3758 7849

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH
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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
706 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Northern Caroline County in north central Virginia...
  Northwestern Essex County in east central Virginia...

* Until 730 PM EDT.

* At 705 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Ladysmith, or near Milford, moving northeast at
  25 mph. This storm has a history of producing a tornado near
  Beaverdam in Hanover County.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Milford around 720 PM EDT.
  Bowling Green around 725 PM EDT.
  Fort A.p. Hill around 730 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Rappahannock Academy, Supply, Villboro, Woodford, Guinea and Corbin.

 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
722 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Southeastern Goochland County in central Virginia...
  Northwestern Henrico County in central Virginia...
  West central Hanover County in central Virginia...
  Northeastern Powhatan County in central Virginia...

* Until 800 PM EDT.

* At 721 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over Sabot, or 8 miles west of Tuckahoe, moving
  northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed.
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree
           damage is likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Tuckahoe around 730 PM EDT.
  Wyndham around 735 PM EDT.
  Montpelier around 740 PM EDT.
  Ashland around 750 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Rockville, Gilman, Crozier, Fine Creek Mills, Johnsons Springs,
Goodall, Elmont, Short Pump, Subletts and Vontay.
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Hmmm... outside the watch box this is

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
723 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia...
  Northern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia...
  The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia...
  Southwestern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...
  South central Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...

* Until 815 PM EDT.

* At 722 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Winchester,
  moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Winchester, Millwood Pike, Berryville, Inwood, Stephens City,
  Middleway, Brucetown, Greenwood, Gaylord, Clear Brook, Ridgeway,
  Bunker Hill, Stephenson, Wickliffe, Wadesville, Summit Point, Cedar
  Hill, Albin and Stringtown.
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mcd0943.gif

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0943
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0622 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

   Areas affected...central and southern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279...

   Valid 272322Z - 280045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts, hail and a tornado or
   two continues with severe storms across parts of southern/central
   VA.

   DISCUSSION...Over the last 90 minutes, regional radar imagery showed
   a cluster of severe storms including several supercells becoming
   organized across parts of southern/central VA. Located within a
   pocket of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis, sufficient
   buoyancy exists to support robust updrafts for a few hours as storms
   track to the north and east. Co-located with the favorable buoyancy,
   area VAD VWPs show 40-50 kt of effective shear supportive of
   continued supercellular and short line segment modes being observed.
   Damaging wind gusts and some hail remain likely with the strongest
   storms as they are forecast to track northeastward into eastern VA
   and southern MD area over the next several hours. Additionally,
   subtle backing of the low-level southerly flow suggests somewhat
   stronger low-level shear as storms move north and east. This is also
   reflected by an increase in STP values to 1 on SPC mesoanalysis. A
   tornado or two will remain possible with the more dominate
   supercells inof the I-95 corridor over the next few hours.

   ..Lyons.. 05/27/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...
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Impressive storms down there in VA (and crossing into Charles Co, MD soon!

Looks like the part of the line heading for me is pretty weak - still time, but I bet the more intense activity may rob the northern parts of some of the juice. 

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
742 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central King George County in central Virginia...

* Until 815 PM EDT.

* At 741 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located over King George, moving northeast at 30 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown,
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur.
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is
           likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  King George around 750 PM EDT.
  Dahlgren and Nanjemoy Creek around 805 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include Ninde,
Berthaville, Weedonville, Dogue and Lambs Creek.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
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On path to DC metro around 9pm

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
VAC049-065-075-085-109-280030-
/O.NEW.KAKQ.SV.W.0087.220527T2340Z-220528T0030Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
740 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Wakefield has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Louisa County in central Virginia...
  North central Cumberland County in central Virginia...
  Northwestern Goochland County in central Virginia...
  Northwestern Hanover County in central Virginia...
  Eastern Fluvanna County in central Virginia...

* Until 830 PM EDT.

* At 739 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from Boswells Tavern to Kents Store to near Duncan,
  moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and powerlines.

* Severe thunderstorms will be near...
  Ferncliff around 745 PM EDT.
  Louisa around 755 PM EDT.
  Hadensville around 800 PM EDT.
  Mineral and Gum Spring around 805 PM EDT.
  Bumpass around 815 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Orchid, Dixie, Pendleton, Louisa Airport, Green Springs, Stage
Junction, Zion Crossroads, Mabelton, Cuckoo and Caledonia.
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24 minutes ago, yoda said:

Hmmm... outside the watch box this is

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
723 PM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southeastern Frederick County in northwestern Virginia...
  Northern Clarke County in northwestern Virginia...
  The City of Winchester in northwestern Virginia...
  Southwestern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...
  South central Berkeley County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...

* Until 815 PM EDT.

* At 722 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Winchester,
  moving northeast at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Winchester, Millwood Pike, Berryville, Inwood, Stephens City,
  Middleway, Brucetown, Greenwood, Gaylord, Clear Brook, Ridgeway,
  Bunker Hill, Stephenson, Wickliffe, Wadesville, Summit Point, Cedar
  Hill, Albin and Stringtown.

It wasn’t severe 

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24 minutes ago, yoda said:

mcd0943.gif

 

 Mesoscale Discussion 0943
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0622 PM CDT Fri May 27 2022

   Areas affected...central and southern Virginia

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279...

   Valid 272322Z - 280045Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 279
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The risk for damaging wind gusts, hail and a tornado or
   two continues with severe storms across parts of southern/central
   VA.

   DISCUSSION...Over the last 90 minutes, regional radar imagery showed
   a cluster of severe storms including several supercells becoming
   organized across parts of southern/central VA. Located within a
   pocket of 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE from SPC mesoanalysis, sufficient
   buoyancy exists to support robust updrafts for a few hours as storms
   track to the north and east. Co-located with the favorable buoyancy,
   area VAD VWPs show 40-50 kt of effective shear supportive of
   continued supercellular and short line segment modes being observed.
   Damaging wind gusts and some hail remain likely with the strongest
   storms as they are forecast to track northeastward into eastern VA
   and southern MD area over the next several hours. Additionally,
   subtle backing of the low-level southerly flow suggests somewhat
   stronger low-level shear as storms move north and east. This is also
   reflected by an increase in STP values to 1 on SPC mesoanalysis. A
   tornado or two will remain possible with the more dominate
   supercells inof the I-95 corridor over the next few hours.

   ..Lyons.. 05/27/2022

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

Dominate lol

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