2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[yoda]

From earlier in Bedford County...

 

[mappy]

picked up almost an inch of rain from that

[Eskimo Joe]

LWX starting to process LSRs and it seems like something may have touched down in Fairfax County, possibly Calvert County too.

[biodhokie]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings do not trigger Wireless Emergency Alerts unless the SVR is tagged for 'Destructive': https://www.foxweather.com/extreme-weather/destructive-thunderstorm-alerts-what-they-are-and-why-the-nws-issues-them

My guess is what would be considered "Destructive" would be something like the 2012 Derecho.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, biodhokie said:

My guess is what would be considered "Destructive" would be something like the 2012 Derecho.

IIRC, the destructive tag is golf ball sized hail or 80 mph winds

[H2O]

15 minutes ago, mappy said:

tornado warning for bel air area

Good thing that was EAST of you

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

Good thing that was EAST of you

lol hush

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[George BM]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

IIRC, the destructive tag is golf ball sized hail or 80 mph winds

Baseball sized hail (2.75"+) and 80+ mph winds. 

[mappy]

def much brighter out than it has been all day

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, George BM said:

Baseball sized hail (2.75"+) and 80+ mph winds. 

There ya go. Unlikely we ever see one of those around here.

[George BM]

21 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Why dont they put out alerts for Thunderstorm warnings anymore?

I don't remember there ever being WEAs for STWarnings before last year. I believe last year was when WEAs for STWs started for 2.75"+ hail and 80+ mph winds.

[kgottwald]

A few scraps of blue sky in Tysons Corner.

[Hank Scorpio]

Sun is trying hard in Leesburg 

[Hoosier]

34 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Unless SPC is seeing something that we aren't, I think we're primed for Round #2...perhaps even one that surpasses this morning's activity in some areas.

I will be more diplomatic with the criticism than some of what gets thrown around in my sub, but let's say that SPC can be a bit slow to react sometimes. While they are the foremost experts on this stuff, I would definitely put weight on the outside collective thoughts/opinions from knowledgeable folks.

[yoda]

can def see the thinning of the clouds and clearing going on

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=24

 

 

[WEATHER53]

Most of the  time around DC when we get hit like  we did at the time if day we were then the atmosphere is sapped and stabilized.  Now 85 degrees and full sunshine and no breeze can destabilize again but 70% of the time that does not happen and dire forecasts of round two do not materialize 

[Stormfly]

56 minutes ago, H2O said:

Good thing that was EAST of you

Got the alert on my watch when I was in the lavatory of all places!

Everyone freaks out when they hear it on their phones.  Pulled up velocity and the spinup was about 500 yards EAST of my toilet (location).  Just dark skies, windy and rain here.  Doubt it did anything on the ground but there was definitely some rotation, albeit for a short time.

[Kmlwx]

Haven't really seen any sun here near Silver Spring. 

[Kmlwx]

Showers running from SW of CHO down to Chatham, VA. Those could serve to increase cloud cover. We'll see how the pockets of clearing sustain or fill in in the NoVA/Central Maryland/DC areas in the next hour or two. The most recent mesoanalysis shows we are pretty worked over in terms of CAPE. 

[Eskimo Joe]

5 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Showers running from SW of CHO down to Chatham, VA. Those could serve to increase cloud cover. We'll see how the pockets of clearing sustain or fill in in the NoVA/Central Maryland/DC areas in the next hour or two. The most recent mesoanalysis shows we are pretty worked over in terms of CAPE. 

We have a decent amount of shear and low level moisture so the wet microburst potential is still there.

[CAPE]

Nothing exciting here. A few rumbles of thunder, but some decent rain. 0.40". Still some on and off showers. Instability should be on the wane through the rest of the afternoon into the evening, but hopefully another round of showers can bring maybe an additional quarter inch. Mesos look pretty meh with the next round weakening as it moves east.

[MN Transplant]

35 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Most of the  time around DC when we get hit like  we did at the time if day we were then the atmosphere is sapped and stabilized.  Now 85 degrees and full sunshine and no breeze can destabilize again but 70% of the time that does not happen and dire forecasts of round two do not materialize 

While generally true you only have to go back a few days for a dual round of storms that verified warnings in the area.

[Kmlwx]

The more recent HRRR runs have focused some better activity to the south in the next round but are a little less impressive than earlier runs in the immediate DC-Balt corridor. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Brookneal, VA cell attm:

 

[Terrapinwx]

Drove through North Beach while out running errands. Lots of debris on the roads and a small area with numerous trees down including 2 houses that I saw were damaged. Luckily the worst of the damage seems to have been to this shed



.

[frostbite_falls]

7 minutes ago, Terrapinwx said:

Drove through North Beach while out running errands. Lots of debris on the roads and a small area with numerous trees down including 2 houses that I saw were damaged. Luckily the worst of the damage seems to have been to this shed



.

If it had been blue it would have been unscathed

[Kmlwx]

Still stuck at 66 degrees here with full cloud cover. I may meh. 

[Kmlwx]

Many of us aren't even in a slight risk anymore. 

[WeatherShak]

Still stuck at 66 degrees here with full cloud cover. I may meh. 

I didn’t know you un-meh’d from earlier and yesterday…