2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1107 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Western Loudoun County in northern Virginia...
  Northeastern Warren County in northwestern Virginia...
  Clarke County in northwestern Virginia...
  Northwestern Fauquier County in northern Virginia...
  Southeastern Jefferson County in the Panhandle of West Virginia...

* Until 1145 AM EDT.

* At 1107 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Millwood Pike to 7 miles south of Berryville to
  Hume, moving northeast at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Purcellville, Berryville, Middleburg, Round Hill, Delaplane,
  Linden, Oatlands, Bluemont, Lovettsville, Boyce, Hamilton,
  Hillsboro, White Post, Gaylord, Aldie, Blue Mountain, Philomont,
  Bethel, Lincoln and Saint Louis.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for north central
Maryland...northern and northwestern Virginia...and the Panhandle of
West Virginia.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

[MN Transplant]

[Eskimo Joe]

The TOR warned cell in VA is about to enter a decent airmass for QLCS tornadoes:

[arlwx]

New radio warning for marine for the Potomac.

[yoda]

Updated morning AFD from LWX (as of 1025am) says that the afternoon/evening threat for severe is "still in play"

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Initial line associated with low level jet continues to slowly
move eastward across the area. Tornado Watch remains in place
through 2 PM. Some stabilization has been occurring with
northward extent as storms interact with weaker instability and
more CIN across our forecast area. Appears an effective warm
front is lurking between DC and Fredericksburg, and theta-e
advection along with some diurnal heating will result in higher
instability spreading northward ahead of the line as it reaches
the I-95 corridor during the midday hours. Therefore damaging
winds and a brief tornado remain threats as low level shear
values remain high. While the overall line will progress to the
east, there is potential for brief training and we have seen
rain amounts of 1-2 inches in an hour where this occurs.

The second round late this afternoon and into this evening is
still somewhat uncertain, but additional severe storms and
localized flooding issues are still within play.

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The TOR warned cell in VA is about to enter a decent airmass for QLCS tornadoes:

If it continues NE path... could brush eastern DC metro in about an hour

[Eskimo Joe]

Just hit 70 degrees at home. Airmass really has that soupy feel.

[H2O]

Temps are really moving up here.  78 now with broken clouds and some sun.  Winds picking up a lot too.

[MN Transplant]

Up to 78/68 at DCA 

[yoda]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Up to 78/68 at DCA 

11am LWX HRR says partly sunny skies too

[midatlanticweather]

Nice downpour but little wind here in Purcellville. We have had almost 0.4 inches of rain in the last 15 minutes so it is a soaker!

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Latest HRRR has a decent 2nd line coming through during prime heating. Currently visible satellite shows outright clearing behind this first batch so it's certainly possible.

[Kmlwx]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest HRRR has a decent 2nd line coming through during prime heating. Currently visible satellite shows outright clearing behind this first batch so it's certainly possible.

Will be interesting to see trends with further HRRR runs as this line gets out of the way and the airmass behind it is ingested into the model.

[Round Hill WX]

Pretty solid gusts under the warning in Round Hill. Nothing severe though

[yoda]

Don't know if I am using it right, but some of the higher tilts (like Tilt 3) on Radarscope look like they have some decent rotation down in EZF and in Prince William County using SRV (Storm Relative Velocity)

[biodhokie]

Parents told me the SVR verified in Spotsy County. They looked to be a few miles NW of the circulation track as it crossed 208 by the courthouse so they couldn't tell me any verify for the TOR.

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1143 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Prince Georges County in central Maryland...
  Northwestern Charles County in southern Maryland...
  Central Stafford County in northern Virginia...
  Southeastern Fairfax County in northern Virginia...
  Southeastern Prince William County in northern Virginia...

* Until 1230 PM EDT.

* At 1142 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from near Montclair to near Stafford to near
  Fredericksburg, moving east at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Stafford, Waldorf, Dale City, Clinton, Fort Washington, Fort Hunt,
  La Plata, Fort Belvoir, Woodbridge, Quantico, Aquia Creek, Port
  Tobacco River, Lake Ridge, Montclair, Lorton, Hybla Valley,
  Newington, Friendly, Triangle and Dumfries.

[Eskimo Joe]

SVR for DC metro.

[Eskimo Joe]

SPC issues Tornado Watch until 22:00 UTC. CC: @yoda

[jacindc]

Sun trying to break through and breeze picking up on Capitol Hill.

[MN Transplant]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

SVR for DC metro.

Sketchy warning based on radar

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Sketchy warning based on radar

Experimental WISC CIMMS placefile on GR suggests decent wet miroburst, marginal tornado risk with the line. 

[yoda]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

SPC issues Tornado Watch until 22:00 UTC. CC: @yoda

Covers east and SE of us... no counties from LWX in that new watchbox

[Eskimo Joe]

IAD just gusted to 36 kts. iadasos.org

[MN Transplant]

Tiny couplet south of Reston, better viewed on TDCA 

[yoda]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

Tiny couplet south of Reston, better viewed on TDCA 

Nice catch... tornado warned now

[arlwx]

TOR warning on the radio for Fairfax and MOCO.

[Eskimo Joe]

TOR for Montgomery and Fairfax until 12:24 pm. Wonder if it was warned off one of the terminal dopplers?

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Tiny couplet south of Reston, better viewed on TDCA 

Called it. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like maybe a 2nd couplet on IAD terminal near Loudoun/Montgomery/Frederick county border?