2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[Stormfly]

16 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Meh?

Pretty much for us in NE MD...so far.

Misty and dreary out.  With slugs on the deck.  So an advisory against barefoot walking at least.

[Kmlwx]

12 HRRR (still running now) really ramps us this early line and plows it through the area as scheduled. Should leave a decent amount of time for the airmass to recover/destabilize. Rare two round severe day seems more and more likely...though second batch I'd venture a guess won't be as severe. 

[yoda]

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
906 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Eastern Nelson County in central Virginia...
  The City of Charlottesville in central Virginia...
  Albemarle County in central Virginia...

* Until 945 AM EDT.

* At 905 AM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
  extending from 6 miles south of Afton to near Spout Spring, moving
  northeast at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Damaging winds will cause some trees and large branches
           to fall. This could injure those outdoors, as well as
           damage homes and vehicles. Roadways may become blocked by
           downed trees. Localized power outages are possible.
           Unsecured light objects may become projectiles.

* Locations impacted include...
  Charlottesville, Crozet, Shipman, Schuyler, Free Union,
  Westmoreland, Hollymead, Nellysford, Ivy, Arrington, Scottsville,
  Esmont, Lovingston, Allens Creek, North Garden, Covesville, Yancey
  Mills, Stony Point, Buffalo Springs and Flordon.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for central
Virginia.

[Eskimo Joe]

7 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

12 HRRR (still running now) really ramps us this early line and plows it through the area as scheduled. Should leave a decent amount of time for the airmass to recover/destabilize. Rare two round severe day seems more and more likely...though second batch I'd venture a guess won't be as severe. 

I'm...somewhat more intrigued about our potential today. Over/under for LWX CWA:

TORs issued: 5, 2 confirmed when it's over
SVRs issued: 24
FFW issued: 6

[southmdwatcher]

And we have breaks in the clouds and some sunshine breaking through sporadically.

[Disc]

Damage in Bedford Co

 

[Eskimo Joe]

Nice SigTor parameters building in across NOVA and even a bit into Frederick County. 

[high risk]

Agree fully that the threat for tornadoes, given the current storm mode being mostly linear, is fairly low and will be limited to brief, low-end TORs.    Wind damage is the bigger threat.    The wildcard, though, will be if any storm can form out ahead and remain discrete.     That would be a different ballgame.

Parameters are fairly good to our south - it looks like they will advect north before the line arrives, but that's still "work that has to be done".    We don't currently have any src-based instability to work with.

[yoda]

More video of damage in Bedford county from possible TOR earlier this morning

 

[Eskimo Joe]

23 minutes ago, high risk said:

Agree fully that the threat for tornadoes, given the current storm mode being mostly linear, is fairly low and will be limited to brief, low-end TORs.    Wind damage is the bigger threat.    The wildcard, though, will be if any storm can form out ahead and remain discrete.     That would be a different ballgame.

Parameters are fairly good to our south - it looks like they will advect north before the line arrives, but that's still "work that has to be done".    We don't currently have any src-based instability to work with.

Latest SPC mesoanalysis has between 500 - 100 SBCAPE tongue ahead of the main line up from NOVA into Gettysburg. I know @Ian has posted in the past about how sneaky these ribbons of SBCAPE can in environments like this.

[yoda]

Latest RWR as of 10am shows 70 degree DPs reaching just south of DC

[Kmlwx]

Seems like there has been an uptick in lightning on the part of the line down near/just south of Palmyra, VA. 

[Kmlwx]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest SPC mesoanalysis has between 500 - 100 SBCAPE tongue ahead of the main line up from NOVA into Gettysburg. I know @Ian has posted in the past about how sneaky these ribbons of SBCAPE can in environments like this.

3hr SBCAPE change has been like +600 for most of us and even +1000 south of DC. Not bad. Even MLCAPE is +400 SE of DC. 

[Eskimo Joe]

TOR coming out for Goochland.

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Latest RWR as of 10am shows 70 degree DPs reaching just south of DC

Its muggy, 67/66 here

[high risk]

3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

3hr SBCAPE change has been like +600 for most of us and even +1000 south of DC. Not bad. Even MLCAPE is +400 SE of DC. 

     Agreed.    Temps are going up despite the cloud cover.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, high risk said:

     Agreed.    Temps are going up despite the cloud cover.

Definitely some okay breaks in the clouds south of US 50 in Maryland.

[Eskimo Joe]

Cell near Strasburg, VA looks like it's trying to do something. 

[H2O]

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

Its muggy, 67/66 here

75/71 here  Warm sector ftw

[H2O]

Some higher cloud tops showing up on sat. for the warned area

[Eskimo Joe]

Noteworthy uptick in CG on the TOR warned cell. I know there's some literature out there about the relationship between CG and sustained updrafts so maybe this one has legs?

[Eskimo Joe]

More Bedford, VA images coming in.

 

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Noteworthy uptick in CG on the TOR warned cell. I know there's some literature out there about the relationship between CG and sustained updrafts so maybe this one has legs?

AKQ canceled the TW

[Kmlwx]

Looks LEWP-y for sure

[biodhokie]

2 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

 

I can see the DC split already.

[mappy]

That line has definitely gotten beefier as it moves slowly NE. Lot of lightning show up east of Winchester

[Eskimo Joe]

SPC issues Mesoscale Discussion #936: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/2022/md0936.html

[Eskimo Joe]

LWX issues Tornado Warning for Spotsylvania County. 

[WxWatcher007]

^

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
1102 AM EDT Fri May 27 2022

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  Central Spotsylvania County in central Virginia...

* Until 1130 AM EDT.
    
* At 1102 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a
  tornado was located near Bumpass, or 7 miles east of Mineral,
  moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

  IMPACT...For those in the direct path of a tornado touchdown, 
           flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Damage to roofs, siding, and windows may occur. 
           Mobile homes may be damaged or destroyed. Tree damage is 
           likely.

* This dangerous storm will be near...
  Spotsylvania and Massaponax around 1130 AM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Glenora, Post Oak, Gatewood, Brokenburg, Snell and Alsop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.
 

[yoda]

I'm sorry, as an aside, I love the city name Bumpass.