2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[Stormfly]

Wow that cell to our north is so close, we got a few quarter sized drops slapping the patio.  But the breeze gusted to 32 mph out of the NW and the dewpoints are now in the upper 50s.  I'll take it!  It's like someone turned on the AC outside.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[nw baltimore wx]

23 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

In their defense, not one student or staff member was harmed from the storms...

Not true. I tweaked my shoulder lifting a beer at my early lunch.

[Stormfly]

3 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Not true. I tweaked my shoulder lifting a beer at my early lunch.

IPA?

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, Stormfly said:

IPA?

A double. Should have started with something lighter to warm up.

[nw baltimore wx]

Watching the storm making its way to Cambridge.

https://chart.maryland.gov/video/video.php?feed=1400b84100a300ab0050fa36c4235c0a

[North Balti Zen]

26 minutes ago, mappy said:

Yup. 

 

wow. Literally just to my north by, like, 1/2 a mile. Nice breeze on the outflow as it shot by. 

[North Balti Zen]

10 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Not true. I tweaked my shoulder lifting a beer at my early lunch.

commissioning the statue to commemorate your sacrifice

[WxWatcher007]

 

[WxUSAF]

WxUSAF: marked SAFE from the Mid-Atlantic’s first Day 1 ENH of 2022

[CAPE]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

WxUSAF: marked SAFE from the Mid-Atlantic’s first Day 1 ENH of 2022

Lookin pretty safe here too. Might get some pity showers/drizzle. Mostly a one trick pony for our region today. Pretty isolated for an ENH.

[Maestrobjwa]

23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Frickin' awesome!!!

[WeatherShak]

Got absolutely hammered. Power still out. Sent wife to basement. Quarter sized hail. South of Old Town.

[Terrapinwx]

 

From Facebook, this is a few miles North of that report


.

[yoda]

000
NWUS51 KLWX 162206
LSRLWX

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
605 PM EDT MON MAY 16 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0513 PM     HAIL             4 SSE CHESAPEAKE BEACH  38.63N  76.52W
05/16/2022  M3.00 INCH       CALVERT            MD   COCORAHS


&&

EVENT NUMBER LWX2203434

 

[yoda]

 

 

[WxWatcher007]

Wow, that’s big time.

[WeatherShak]

Still-out-of-power grilled chicken nachos.

[MN Transplant]

 

[mappy]

1 hour ago, North Balti Zen said:

wow. Literally just to my north by, like, 1/2 a mile. Nice breeze on the outflow as it shot by. 

Yeah close miss for ya. Wonderful out there now 

[osfan24]

It's amazing outside. Should have just fast-forwarded to this part.

[WxWatcher007]

Nothing nearly as exciting up here but awesome to get the camera out.

 

 

 

[WeatherShak]

Video of me running around the house assessing damage.

[high risk]

So, um, that 45 wind area from the morning outlook didn't work out very well.....

 

[Eskimo Joe]

D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts. Oy.

[Kmlwx]

28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

D2 ENH is the new D2 MOD in these parts. Oy.

If my memory is correct - a significant number of our *good* moderate days have come when SPC has added the moderate area at 13z or later. Without going to the SPC site, I believe June 4, 2008 was either bumped to a mod at 13z or 1630z. We call know June 29, 2012 was barely outlooked earlier that same day before going to a moderate risk as the line formed/approached. 

Am thinking there's other notable ones as well. I think the failure potential is just way too high to warrant moderate risks in this part of the country more than a few hours ahead. Too many variables. I don't envy SPC's job of course - and not digging on them - but elevating the risk area too far ahead of time can lead to public distrust over time...particularly in this day and age when SPC forecasts are all over social media and more widely seen by the public. 

[csnavywx]

The mid-deck from earlier in the day almost crapped out the entire party. We'll have another chance here this week if we can get an MCS to ride the EML instability gradient or this weekend, provided the BL doesn't get mixed out with all the heat.

[Eskimo Joe]

On 5/16/2022 at 10:09 PM, Kmlwx said:

If my memory is correct - a significant number of our *good* moderate days have come when SPC has added the moderate area at 13z or later. Without going to the SPC site, I believe June 4, 2008 was either bumped to a mod at 13z or 1630z. We call know June 29, 2012 was barely outlooked earlier that same day before going to a moderate risk as the line formed/approached. 

Am thinking there's other notable ones as well. I think the failure potential is just way too high to warrant moderate risks in this part of the country more than a few hours ahead. Too many variables. I don't envy SPC's job of course - and not digging on them - but elevating the risk area too far ahead of time can lead to public distrust over time...particularly in this day and age when SPC forecasts are all over social media and more widely seen by the public. 

I completely agree with this assessment. I'm  a big fan of not "over forecasting" the event. There is nothing wrong with waking up to a strongly worded slight risk then adding the ENH, or MOD at the day goes on. I think that's why the April 27, 2011 event in Alabama was so well forecast because SPC and the local WFOs just upped the confidence as the event drew close.

[Kmlwx]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I completely agree with this assessment. I'm  a big fan of not "over forecasting" the event. There is nothing wrong with waking up to a strongly worded slight risk then adding the ENH, or MOD at the day goes on. I think that's why the April 27, 2011 event in Alabama was so well forecast because SPC and the local WFOs just upped the confidence as the event drew close.

I think there's something to be said to timing of a threat too. For a nocturnal event, I can certainly see the merits of emphasizing a threat before average bedtimes since people may miss alerts ahead of time. But for a normal afternoon/evening severe events, there's plenty of time in the morning and even up to 12 or 1 for nowcasting and seeing how things like instability, CIN etc are playing out in real time before going big on an event. 

ENH for our area I truly believe is essentially the new moderate. It's still possible we'd get a moderate with hatching - but if you look at the breakdown of what is ENH vs MOD now - I think mod is going to be much harder for us to attain locally. 

[Eskimo Joe]

27 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I think there's something to be said to timing of a threat too. For a nocturnal event, I can certainly see the merits of emphasizing a threat before average bedtimes since people may miss alerts ahead of time. But for a normal afternoon/evening severe events, there's plenty of time in the morning and even up to 12 or 1 for nowcasting and seeing how things like instability, CIN etc are playing out in real time before going big on an event. 

ENH for our area I truly believe is essentially the new moderate. It's still possible we'd get a moderate with hatching - but if you look at the breakdown of what is ENH vs MOD now - I think mod is going to be much harder for us to attain locally. 

Yup. Couple of hard learned lessoned learned about convective days here:

1.) Always take the under. You won't be dissapointed.

2.) There are a lot of ways we lose in these parts, mostly from terrain and water boundaries.

3.) If we get a good EML/mid level lapse rates, it helps to overcome the aforementioned local issues.

4.) We don't do multiple rounds of storms well, unless you're angling for flooding.