2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[yoda]

Middle of the week threat maybe?

[NorthArlington101]

One more from last week:

 

[Kmlwx]

On 4/3/2022 at 10:57 AM, yoda said:

Middle of the week threat maybe?

Meh

[Eskimo Joe]

On 4/3/2022 at 10:57 AM, yoda said:

Middle of the week threat maybe?

Meh

[mattie g]

On 4/3/2022 at 10:57 AM, yoda said:

Middle of the week threat maybe?

Meh

[Kmlwx]

Honestly it looks even sub-meh at this point. I'm not even tracking this one anymore. It's still early in the season anyhow. We need to wait for warmer temps, higher dews. 

[Vice-Regent]

25 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Honestly it looks even sub-meh at this point. I'm not even tracking this one anymore. It's still early in the season anyhow. We need to wait for warmer temps, higher dews. 

I look forward to a time when our window for severe wx is more consistently expanded. Upsides friends.

[yoda]

Second TOR confirmed from March 31st

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[yoda]

Sounds like Thursday could be our next date to watch for possible severe per this morning AFD 

[yoda]

MRGL for Thursday from SPC

[yoda]

Maybe sneaky severe storm on Wednesday too?

Morning AFD from LWX 

A warm front will return back north on Wednesday. Therefore, WAA
will increase once again. If the warm front moves north of the
region as indicated by most guidance, sun could aid in bringing
temperatures towards the 80 degree mark east of I-81, with a few
locations a degree or two higher. Rain chances on Wednesday are
highest along the Mason-Dixon line closer to where a shortwave
trough will pass through. Cannot rule out a thunderstorm across
the far northwest given the forecast instability, though
uncertainty remains if the instability will be surface based or
elevated. Should greater instability be realized, some rotating
updrafts aren`t out of the question given what appears to be
supportive deep layer shear, but even then, am not sure that
there would be enough CAPE for severe storms. Conditions should
stabilize as diurnal heating is lost Wednesday evening into the
overnight, with many locations drying out.

Thursday will feature a potent cold front passing through the
area into the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures
Thursday will be highly sensitive to the timing of the cold
front passage. Current guidance suggests a later cold front
passage, resulting in warm southerly flow ahead of the cold
front bringing temperatures to near 80 degrees again east of the
mountains. The dynamics associated with the cold front will
yield the next opportunity for rain showers and thunderstorms.
This is another HSLC set up, with 50-60 kt bulk shear and mean
CAPE less than 300 J/kg. A few ensemble members continue to
bring CAPE values significantly higher near the metros late
Thursday, but confidence is low at this time if the instability
would be rooted within the boundary layer. Will maintain the
potential for thunderstorms Thursday afternoon/evening, some of
which could be strong or even severe.

[Kmlwx]

I'm meh-ing for now. 

[high risk]

Wednesday has some sneaky supercell potential for the northwest areas, perhaps HGR and points west and north of there.  CAMs suggest that the greatest threat for a few cells is in PA, but there is a signal for northwest and western MD     The wind profiles might not support TORs, but they would support storm rotation.

NAM Nest and hi-res FV3 both show a narrow line ahead of the front Thursday afternoon.   There are questions about the amount of instability, and some of the wind profiles look “weird”, but this could eventually end up as a SLGT day. 

[Eskimo Joe]

I could see Thurs morphing into a low end SLGT day.

[Eskimo Joe]

2% TOR risk introduced for the I-81 corridor tomorrow afternoon.

[Kmlwx]

CIPS is relatively quiet for tomorrow - but does have May 13, 2000 and May 6, 1991 in the mix. 

[Stormfly]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

CIPS is relatively quiet for tomorrow - but does have May 13, 2000 and May 6, 1991 in the mix. 

I remember May 13, 2000 VERY well!  That one affect us big time.

[Eskimo Joe]

Evening update from SPC puts D2 SLGT from Cecil County NE along I-95 into NYC.

[high risk]

Really not sure what to make of the SVR chances this afternoon.    Pretty much every CAM brings some sort of line or broken line through the area (with perhaps a few stronger cells immediately behind), but there is no agreement on intensity.    Overall, based on simulated reflectivity, it's tough to expect more than a few SVR reports, but if we can maximize surface heating without mixing out the low-level moisture, perhaps we can have a modestly more interesting event.

[WEATHER53]

60 mph gust

Limbs down 

[Eskimo Joe]

8 hours ago, high risk said:

Really not sure what to make of the SVR chances this afternoon.    Pretty much every CAM brings some sort of line or broken line through the area (with perhaps a few stronger cells immediately behind), but there is no agreement on intensity.    Overall, based on simulated reflectivity, it's tough to expect more than a few SVR reports, but if we can maximize surface heating without mixing out the low-level moisture, perhaps we can have a modestly more interesting event.

12z RAOB has decent mid level lapse rates. Could definitely be a conditional wind threat. Wouldn't shock me to see the 15% wind get nudges back further SW.

[high risk]

54 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z RAOB has decent mid level lapse rates. Could definitely be a conditional wind threat. Wouldn't shock me to see the 15% wind get nudges back further SW.

       Agreed.    Ultimately, I think it's going to come down to the surface dew points.    The NAM Nest and ARW2 keep dew points around 60 ahead of the line, and both have impressive reflectivity signatures.    Other CAMs (including the HRRR) mix out the low-level moisture and end up with mid 50s dew points, and their simulated radars look very meh.

   

[high risk]

3 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

12z RAOB has decent mid level lapse rates. Could definitely be a conditional wind threat. Wouldn't shock me to see the 15% wind get nudges back further SW.

      good call!

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, high risk said:

      good call!

Pulled a Pro Forecaster move

[weatherCCB]

Line to the west really blowing up now.

[biodhokie]

22 minutes ago, weatherCCB said:

Line to the west really blowing up now.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[wawarriors4]

Got some decent thunderstorms down this way this evening.

 

[yoda]

Afternoon AFD suggests next Tuesday may be our first chance at severe again