2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[yoda]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Cell firing in Garrett County, MD looks like it wants to become interesting.

STW on it now

[Scraff]

All the latest guidance says….

[mappy]

ran out for a little bit and it is noticeably muggy today compared to other days this week. still pretty cloudy in Hunt Valley, quite breezy too. 

[Round Hill WX]

Blue skies showing in beautiful Round Hill. 73. 

[midatlanticweather]

[Eskimo Joe]

TOR for RIC.

[NorthArlington101]

TOR for RIC.

Couplet going into Brandermill looks legit. Don’t see a CC drop though.

[H2O]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

TOR for RIC.

hell of a sig on radar velocity

[catoctin wx]

I hate days like this. I have a baseball practice to run from 5:30 - 7:00 in Frederick.  The HRRR shows the line coming through at like 6:30, but the 3km NAM doesn't have it until later 

[Eskimo Joe]

@yoda @Kmlwx latest SPC meso analysis has better 0-1 SRM helicity. Maybe we do get a tornado watch this afternoon?

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like may two possible areas of rotation on that warning near RIC? OU CIMMS placefile has experimental TOR probability at 61% damn.

[clueless]

That doesn’t look good in RIC.  

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like that's a whole cluster trying to spin up. Another notch SW of RIC worth watching.

[mappy]

maybe we just get a wind advisory instead. we do wind well 

[Eskimo Joe]

Looks like a bit of a CC drop just NE of Midlothian, VA.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like a bit of a CC drop just NE of Midlothian, VA.

Not sure I'm sold on that being a CC drop, but it looked like it could've dropped one over the last 10-15 minutes for sure. 

[Eskimo Joe]

Another couplet just SE of Amelia Court House.

[yoda]

Latest SWS from AKQ says radar indicated rotation still

[Eskimo Joe]

SPC issues Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 02:00 UTC

[yoda]

6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

SPC issues Severe Thunderstorm Watch until 02:00 UTC

Watch info includes "widespread damaging wind gusts to 70mph likely"

 

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 87
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   200 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
     District Of Columbia
     Western and Central Maryland
     Southern New York
     Central Pennsylvania
     Northern Virginia
     Eastern Panhandle of West Virginia
     Coastal Waters

   * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until
     1000 PM EDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely
     Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and
   intensity this afternoon and spread across the watch area.  The
   strongest cells and lines will pose a risk of damaging wind gusts
   and a tornado or two.

 

[mattie g]

Meh

[yoda]

20/5 tor probs, 90/20 wind probs on the watch

[batmanbrad]

that is a huge watch box!

 

[Kmlwx]

I'm still at work in Rockville/Potomac. No windows. Hoping to sneak out before 3. Sounds like things are looking not meh? 

[mappy]

Just now, Kmlwx said:

I'm still at work in Rockville/Potomac. No windows. Hoping to sneak out before 3. Sounds like things are looking not meh? 

depends on who you ask. 

mattie = meh

EJ = probably meh, but hopeful

yoda = plenty to copy and paste

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[NorthArlington101]

Funnel cloud report did come through outside Richmond, not seeing any evidence on Twitter or anything that suggests there was a touchdown.

ninja'd

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I'm still at work in Rockville/Potomac. No windows. Hoping to sneak out before 3. Sounds like things are looking not meh? 

Yea it's not too shabby. Shaping up to be a solid SLGT, low end ENH kind of day. If we can just get an hour or two of sun.....

[yoda]

RIC cell would be on path for just east of La Plata and into S MD if it continues NE

[Rhino16]

Maybe another rotation to the southwest of current warning in RIchmond?