2022 Mid-Atlantic Severe Wx Thread (General Discussion Etc)

[Eskimo Joe]

13 minutes ago, jewell2188 said:

I would think with a mod La Niña this spring, that would mean an active severe season for us? 

Yup

[Kmlwx]

This is pretty off topic at least in terms of what we have going on today - 

But what's the updates on MPAR or Phased Array radar systems? I know back in like 2015 and 2016 there's a lot of documentation about what the path forward was after the SLEP program for the WSR-88D radars. The current series of GOES has been awesome from the satellite side of things. What about radar? I saw a Powerpoint from back in 2015 suggesting that phased array might be rolling out to FAA sites by 2025 and NWS ones starting in 2030. Guessing that is a pipe dream? 

I just remember hearing A LOT about it and then mostly nothing the past 5+ years. 

@high risk, @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx ?

Dual-pol was a wonderful step up - but what's our next awesome new toy to play with as weather nerds in the radar field?

[MN Transplant]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

This is pretty off topic at least in terms of what we have going on today - 

But what's the updates on MPAR or Phased Array radar systems? I know back in like 2015 and 2016 there's a lot of documentation about what the path forward was after the SLEP program for the WSR-88D radars. The current series of GOES has been awesome from the satellite side of things. What about radar? I saw a Powerpoint from back in 2015 suggesting that phased array might be rolling out to FAA sites by 2025 and NWS ones starting in 2030. Guessing that is a pipe dream? 

I just remember hearing A LOT about it and then mostly nothing the past 5+ years. 

@high risk, @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx ?

Dual-pol was a wonderful step up - but what's our next awesome new toy to play with as weather nerds in the radar field?

Still in the distance.  The original concept was the system that could do multiple things, like track weather and aircraft.  That fell apart.  I think NOAA presented at the last AMS meeting about system requirements, which points to a phased-array due to the benefits of the faster updates.  But there still has not been a NEXRAD-quality S-band phased-array radar constructed.  The technology is now there, but it takes a lot of money to build the first one that can do dual-pol and small enough beamwidth.  I imagine that we’ll start to hear something in the next few years, but a grand rollout of a new system is in the 2030s or beyond.

[Kmlwx]

8 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

Still in the distance.  The original concept was the system that could do multiple things, like track weather and aircraft.  That fell apart.  I think NOAA presented at the last AMS meeting about system requirements, which points to a phased-array due to the benefits of the faster updates.  But there still has not been a NEXRAD-quality S-band phased-array radar constructed.  The technology is now there, but it takes a lot of money to build the first one that can do dual-pol and small enough beamwidth.  I imagine that we’ll start to hear something in the next few years, but a grand rollout of a new system is in the 2030s or beyond.

So it sounds like the plan of doing a 2nd SLEP will probably have to happen to push things into that timeframe. That sucks - but not surprised as that's usually how gov't stuff and advanced tech works. 

[NorthArlington101]

Sort of surprised that Short Pump isn’t under a warning.

[AdamHLG]

Meanwhile…. Radar looks pretty lit given the low expectations.


.

[Kleimax]

Severe T storm warning Fredrick carrol Baltimore, it mentions some hail <.75 inch 

[high risk]

pretty remarkable that we're too far south to get in on the good SVR threat for an early March event

[Kmlwx]

Absolute snoozer here. The wind earlier was more impressive. 

[Stormfly]

41 minutes ago, Kleimax said:

Severe T storm warning Fredrick carrol Baltimore, it mentions some hail <.75 inch 

I don't think that is valid just a marker for svr criteria?  This is/was a wind risk event.  It blew through here like a bat out of hell.  Sounded like a firehose on the skylights, sent the cat scurrying across the floor which startled me!

[MN Transplant]

The line just completely evaporated.  0.04” on the day.

[KAOS]

that was awesome

[mappy]

12 hours ago, yoda said:

Woo showers?

I was under a warning for a period. while no thunder, when the line came through it was pretty darn windy. 

[H2O]

9 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

The line just completely evaporated.  0.04” on the day.

It’s comical, isn’t it?  Didn’t even get a tenth

[North Balti Zen]

4 minutes ago, H2O said:

It’s comical, isn’t it?  Didn’t even get a tenth

I mentioned in the obs thread how paltry it was yesterday and was told it wasn’t here yet. Then it got here and it still was basically nothing.

[H2O]

19 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I mentioned in the obs thread how paltry it was yesterday and was told it wasn’t here yet. Then it got here and it still was basically nothing.

Tomorrow will redeem itself when we get cold rain

[yoda]

I thought this was mainly for winter stuff... but now it's for severe chances as well now in the HWO?

@high risk @Kmlwx @MN Transplant

 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is an enhanced severe storm threat late Friday into Saturday.
Scattered storms with damaging wind gusts are possible. Strong
northwest winds may cause instances of wind damage through
Saturday evening. Gale-force winds are possible over the waters
Saturday.

[mappy]

45 minutes ago, yoda said:

I thought this was mainly for winter stuff... but now it's for severe chances as well now in the HWO?

@high risk @Kmlwx @MN Transplant

 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is an enhanced severe storm threat late Friday into Saturday.
Scattered storms with damaging wind gusts are possible. Strong
northwest winds may cause instances of wind damage through
Saturday evening. Gale-force winds are possible over the waters
Saturday.

HWO does stand for Hazardous Weather Outlook 

damaging wind gusts are hazardous  

[87storms]

i'm craving a thunderstorm.

[George BM]

6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

i'm craving a thunderstorm.

There actually is a non-zero chance of some convection on Saturday. Models such as the NAM show at least a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE w/ decent shear. Perhaps a few lightning strikes and/or enhanced wind gusts? (General/MRGL type activity)

[high risk]

9 hours ago, George BM said:

There actually is a non-zero chance of some convection on Saturday. Models such as the NAM show at least a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE w/ decent shear. Perhaps a few lightning strikes and/or enhanced wind gusts? (General/MRGL type activity)

   Trend in the NAM is really interesting.    A slower arrival of the front allows for more heating Saturday and for moisture to return.   00Z run this evening has a good amount of CAPE, especially south of DC along with a not-too-shabby wind profile.

[yoda]

7 hours ago, high risk said:

   Trend in the NAM is really interesting.    A slower arrival of the front allows for more heating Saturday and for moisture to return.   00Z run this evening has a good amount of CAPE, especially south of DC along with a not-too-shabby wind profile.

If only the 00z NAM sounding at 21z SAT would come true lol... would be good enough for damaging winds... maybe some hail and isolated weak spinup.  06z NAM continues it... but decreases the low level shear and suggests more of a damaging wind threat

[Eskimo Joe]

On 3/7/2022 at 5:47 PM, Kmlwx said:

This is pretty off topic at least in terms of what we have going on today - 

But what's the updates on MPAR or Phased Array radar systems? I know back in like 2015 and 2016 there's a lot of documentation about what the path forward was after the SLEP program for the WSR-88D radars. The current series of GOES has been awesome from the satellite side of things. What about radar? I saw a Powerpoint from back in 2015 suggesting that phased array might be rolling out to FAA sites by 2025 and NWS ones starting in 2030. Guessing that is a pipe dream? 

I just remember hearing A LOT about it and then mostly nothing the past 5+ years. 

@high risk, @WxUSAF @MillvilleWx ?

Dual-pol was a wonderful step up - but what's our next awesome new toy to play with as weather nerds in the radar field?

Personally, I'd like to see the NWS start filling the radar gaps in the country (NC, FL, etc.) and use the opportunity to make the new radars phased array instead of the WSR-88D. You can build a site from scratch for the new technology, fill long standing gaps, and see how it compares in the field to existing tech.

[Eskimo Joe]

On 3/8/2022 at 6:58 AM, yoda said:

I thought this was mainly for winter stuff... but now it's for severe chances as well now in the HWO?

@high risk @Kmlwx @MN Transplant

 

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

There is an enhanced severe storm threat late Friday into Saturday.
Scattered storms with damaging wind gusts are possible. Strong
northwest winds may cause instances of wind damage through
Saturday evening. Gale-force winds are possible over the waters
Saturday.

As part of the NWS Hazard Simplification (HazSimp) process the HWO will cover the Days 2 - 7 threats.

[Kmlwx]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Personally, I'd like to see the NWS start filling the radar gaps in the country (NC, FL, etc.) and use the opportunity to make the new radars phased array instead of the WSR-88D. You can build a site from scratch for the new technology, fill long standing gaps, and see how it compares in the field to existing tech.

That sounds like a spectacular idea. Worst case scenario it turns out to be a dud and you have the same holes you already had. Best case, you prove that it works and can move forward with the rest of the radars. Though you'd think they'd have a decent baseline from the phased array radar that was (is?) in place at NSSL in OK. 

[Kmlwx]

Actually the models don't look bad for Sat. Wow. 

[87storms]

On 3/16/2022 at 1:02 PM, George BM said:

There actually is a non-zero chance of some convection on Saturday. Models such as the NAM show at least a couple hundred J/kg of CAPE w/ decent shear. Perhaps a few lightning strikes and/or enhanced wind gusts? (General/MRGL type activity)

I’m all in.

[Eskimo Joe]

13 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

Actually the models don't look bad for Sat. Wow. 

Saturday has good potential if the timing works out.

[Eskimo Joe]

13 hours ago, Kmlwx said:

That sounds like a spectacular idea. Worst case scenario it turns out to be a dud and you have the same holes you already had. Best case, you prove that it works and can move forward with the rest of the radars. Though you'd think they'd have a decent baseline from the phased array radar that was (is?) in place at NSSL in OK. 

It's really amazing that we have places like North Carolina, with the growing research triangle and Carolina Alley along with Florida with it's increasing hurricane risk and population growth that are just being ignored by Congress. You'd think a couple of senators would be able to get a bill in to at least cover these areas. I know that NOAA/NWS has been doing a metric ton of work to address this stuff but you can only go so far with the hard scrabble budget they're given.

[Kmlwx]

15 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's really amazing that we have places like North Carolina, with the growing research triangle and Carolina Alley along with Florida with it's increasing hurricane risk and population growth that are just being ignored by Congress. You'd think a couple of senators would be able to get a bill in to at least cover these areas. I know that NOAA/NWS has been doing a metric ton of work to address this stuff but you can only go so far with the hard scrabble budget they're given.

STEM continues to be ridiculously underfunded. Sad to compare NOAA's budget to other agencies.