Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Models coming in juicier and farther N and W. Starting to look like after low 60s today, arctic front plows thru later with plummeting temps and a mix of rain and snow breaking out by midnight or shortly after. Coating to an inch in most spots, mostly on grass/cars. So heavier bursts over extreme SE PA with some isolated spots seeing up to 2 or 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 12z HRRR has my area bullseyed with a 4" isolated max. I think I would be content with a half inch of slush tbh given the recent warmth and the LR close the blinds pattern coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Snow hole over central Montco, looks right 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Suspect quite a bit of what you see south and east will be white rain....where qpf looks to be lighter N and W of fall line and with some elevation expect quick stickage...even after temps in the low 50's early today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Ralph suddenly makes a thread because he will "win" finally lol you're a trip buddy! Enjoy tomorrow and I'll enjoy today 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Ralph suddenly makes a thread because he will "win" finally lol you're a trip buddy! Enjoy tomorrow and I'll enjoy today I made a thread because y'all are snoozing on the job 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Mt holly seems to think paved surfaces should retain most of their warmth from today hence why there are no winter weather advisory’s. I think 1-3” on grassy surfaces seems to be a good bet though. Hope the HRRR and other meso guidance ends up being correct and some areas see lollis of 4”. Should be nice to wake up to snow for possibly the last time this winter. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I made a thread because y'all are snoozing on the job Lol I didn't realize it was thread worthy! Me and the boys are brewing today and yesterday I did a lot of walking around enjoying the sun. I think most people just watching the super bowl tomorrow so this slid under the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 37 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Lol I didn't realize it was thread worthy! Me and the boys are brewing today and yesterday I did a lot of walking around enjoying the sun. I think most people just watching the super bowl tomorrow so this slid under the radar Given the sad state of affairs this season, the threat of a coating is thread worthy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 22 minutes ago, JTA66 said: Given the sad state of affairs this season, the threat of a coating is thread worthy We've made threads for flizzards before, so yes I agree...desperate times call for desperate measures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: If that verifies it would be my second largest accumulation so far this season 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Latest HRRR and HRDPS doubled down for SE PA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 I thought this one was neat surprised it wasn't posted 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Is 18 hours out ok to be in the bullseye? Asking for a friend. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is 18 hours out ok to be in the bullseye? Asking for a friend. Well it is the Herp a Derp and it’s cousin the HURRR so I wouldn’t count my chickens just yet but if I see 2” out of this system I’m counting it as an epic win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2-4” for most on the latest HREF mean: 4-6 on the ensemble max: I think mt holly will issue advisories on the afternoon update unless they really think it’s going to have trouble sticking due to the recent high temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Maybe I'm reading/seeing things wrong, but sure seems like SE PA is backing into a sneaky little surprise event at the last minute. These models barely gave us a trace yesterday now some guidance as high as 6" with the stripe of banding.....and guidance is increasing rather than going the opposite way for a change. I'm with @The Iceman.....2" wet snow is a win....an epic win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Thinking moat accums will be on grassy/colder surfaces. Kinda surprised by the higher amounts on models, it doesn't seem that juicy of a system. A general 1-3, 2-4" is likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Maybe I'm reading/seeing things wrong, but sure seems like SE PA is backing into a sneaky little surprise event at the last minute. These models barely gave us a trace yesterday now some guidance as high as 6" with the stripe of banding.....and guidance is increasing rather than going the opposite way for a change. I'm with @The Iceman.....2" wet snow is a win....an epic win. That's why I'm skeptical? I'm pretty much when I see the first flakes and radar looks good I'm onboard mode. Either way, we're not having a blowtorch SB Sunday which is good but looking ahead 60F+ late next week (?) kinda sucks... 55F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Euro looks solid... 56F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, Newman said: Thinking moat accums will be on grassy/colder surfaces. Kinda surprised by the higher amounts on models, it doesn't seem that juicy of a system. A general 1-3, 2-4" is likely There is a jet streak right over the area providing extra lift as the precip develops. Agreed it isn’t that juicy of a system but that should enhance rates for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 NBM throws a few inches over the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Models continue to tick N and W. HRRR still making moves. Close enough now that coastal development may even creep into SE PA aside from the jet enhanced stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Crazy part is, now the LV is in the heavier band on some guidance and for some, this *could* be the largest event of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: Well it is the Herp a Derp and it’s cousin the HURRR so I wouldn’t count my chickens just yet but if I see 2” out of this system I’m counting it as an epic win. My wife always laughs when I'm checking the models and say out loud "Hurderps" and "HURRRR". Glad I'm not the only one! Looking like we'll at least get snow TV tomorrow. Love it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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