Tallis Rockwell Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 First major outbreak of the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tallis Rockwell Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Forgot the important stuff. Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a strong shortwave trough will drop southward from the Pacific Northwest into southern CA on D4/Monday and D5/Tuesday. This shortwave is then expected to eject eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico into the southern Plains on D6/Wednesday before continuing northeastward across the Mid MS Valley and Lower/Middle OH Valley on D7/Thursday. Very strong mid-level flow will accompany the shortwave, with strong low-level flow anticipated throughout the warm sector ahead of the shortwave as well. This strong low-level flow will contribute to robust moisture advection, with upper 50s dewpoints into southern OK and low 60s dewpoints through much of central TX by early D6/Wednesday evening. This moisture advection will continue on D7/Thursday, with upper 50s dewpoints likely reaching into the middle OH Valley by D7/Thursday evening. The combination of lift, strong vertical shear, low-level moisture, and buoyancy will likely result in severe thunderstorms. Current guidance indicates the most probable location for severe storms on D6/Wednesday is from central TX northeastward across eastern OK, central/western AR, and northwest LA. For D7/Thursday, the severe risk extends from the Lower MS Valley through the Mid-South into the Lower OH Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 D3 slight issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Doesn’t look like a major outbreak. Thursday probably has the most potential of the two days. Timing has slowed down, trending threat areas farther west. Wednesday looks like mainly a nocturnal threat at this juncture across Texas and possibly parts of Oklahoma. Thursday could be more potent across the lower Mississippi Valley. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Reed Timmer@ReedTimmerAccu·3hStill though, given such strong kinematics and massive hodographs across warm sector on Thursday, especially MS into AL, I do expect a significant tornado event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Outbreak? Since when did this forum turn into the YouTube emulation channel for RHY and Timmer? Really don't expect a 'outbreak' of tornadoes - though a decent number of pocket-change size hail and wind reports are possible. To be honest, gradient winds ahead of the squall line may be a more substantial problem. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 That title is a huge overreaction. BTW, I'm getting ****ing sick of these nighttime setups. That's all we've had in DFW since I've been here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Fairly large area of a 10 percent hatched tornado contour added to the 2 day outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Was gonna say today may have fizzled but tomorrow looks worth watching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Like most severe weather events as of late, this will definitely be a good setup for MS/AL. For TX and OK, it's looking like nothing special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sydney Claridge Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Looks like we got our first severe thunderstorm warning over Odessa, with a risk for 70 mph wind gusts. Dew points are only in the 30s and 40s there, but there is still a little instability present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 47 minutes ago, BrandonC_TX said: Looks like we got our first severe thunderstorm warning over Odessa, with a risk for 70 mph wind gusts. Dew points are only in the 30s and 40s there, but there is still a little instability present. Very strong wind fields - 00z MAF (Midland-Odessa) sounding sampled 107 knots of 0-6 km shear. Impressive wind profiles will drive the severe threat through Thursday night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 https://twitter.com/NWStornado/status/1494227513358258177?t=NFfFjMmdAIemW5Y4WjJbag&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Man if the instability can deliver, these hodographs are pretty ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 I guess this isn't getting a lot of discussion, but may very well be a dangerous tornado outbreak Quote Tornado Watch Number 20 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1050 AM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern Arkansas Northeast Louisiana Central and northern Mississippi Southwest Tennessee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, Chinook said: I guess this isn't getting a lot of discussion, but may very well be a dangerous tornado outbreak That's what I'm leaning more towards. SB & MLCAPE are solid, condensation level is basically on the ground, and both shear & SRH are pretty high. I will say though it's lining a bit much this early in the game and maybe pushing too far east of where the best dynamics are Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Jackson MS 1257 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 The National Weather Service in Jackson has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Northeastern Holmes County in central Mississippi... Southeastern Carroll County in north central Mississippi... Northwestern Attala County in central Mississippi... Southeastern Montgomery County in north central Mississippi... * Until 145 PM CST. Second tornado warning on this cell, first was (inexplicably in my opinion) allowed to expire about 20 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 4 hours ago, nwohweather said: That's what I'm leaning more towards. SB & MLCAPE are solid, condensation level is basically on the ground, and both shear & SRH are pretty high. I will say though it's lining a bit much this early in the game and maybe pushing too far east of where the best dynamics are the new line of cells is producing a tornado Quote Severe Weather Statement National Weather Service Birmingham AL 417 PM CST Thu Feb 17 2022 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CST FOR CENTRAL WALKER...NORTH CENTRAL TUSCALOOSA AND SOUTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES... At 416 PM CST, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was located over Boley Springs, or 19 miles east of Fayette, moving northeast at 55 mph. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW! HAZARD...Damaging tornado. SOURCE...Radar confirmed tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKTWISTER Posted February 18, 2022 Share Posted February 18, 2022 9 hours ago, Chinook said: I guess this isn't getting a lot of discussion, but may very well be a dangerous tornado outbreak There is too much throwing out the word outbreak with limited data to back it up. Again today was not an outbreak by any means not even close. If the hype is all that is put out you will see people not believing it when the data really supports it. Remember part of the issue that was looked at after Joplin was the number of tornado warnings issued by NWS Springfield that were not backed up by what really was occuring. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/publications/edwards/defpaper.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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