McHenrySnow Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Found my run. Lock in the 18z GFS. lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I'd sell off a section of my retirement for the 18z GFS to verify lol. On that note, time to go watch the super bowl. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Just now, cyclone77 said: I'd sell off a section of my retirement for the 18z GFS to verify lol. On that note, time to go watch the super bowl. yes that is impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 The 18z GFS is a blizzard, with 40-55MPH wind gusts.Also has 6hr snowfall totals nearly of 20” close to the IA/IL/MO border area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Despite fluctuations in exact placement, another high impact run from the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Also has 6hr snowfall totals nearly 20” close to the IA/IL/MO border area. . Might be a bit overdone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 and total precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 The verbatim snow/ice numbers and wind would be an extremely impressive storm in some areas. Still a ways to go though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 Might be a bit overdone? It’s just about as good of a phase we can get, based on how things are on paper right now.So probably the tip of the ceiling for the event, and obviously would still favor weaker/SE. I think it was yesterday when I mentioned I would favor a hit near where GHD3 hit, in other words a compromise of the GFS/Euro (which ironically is what ended up working out at this range for GHD3).. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Hard to ignore the consistency of GFS showing an amped system for many runs now. Snow amounts likely a bit overdone though. But man that would be a great storm with a nice swath of double digit totals and near blizzard to blizzard conditions. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 Hard to ignore the consistency of GFS showing an amped system for many runs now.sounds familiar, doesn’t it.we know how that worked out last time. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Bet against the amped system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The verbatim snow/ice numbers and wind would be an extremely impressive storm in some areas. Still a ways to go though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Aaaaand the thread explodes those ice totals of played out would be north of me and I’m fine with that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Rooting for the 18z GFS. That’s like saying the 84hr NAM will verify. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Ez toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Temps right after the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 While I'd take 20", my one and only goal these days is to see a double digit snowfall. Haven't seen a single double digit snowfall since March 4-5, 2015.......in Kentucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It’s just about as good of a phase we can get, based on how things are on paper right now. So probably the tip of the ceiling for the event, and obviously would still favor weaker/SE. I think it was yesterday when I mentioned I would favor a hit near where GHD3 hit, in other words a compromise of the GFS/Euro (which ironically is what ended up working out at this range for GHD3). . I actually kinda like where I'm at right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Just now, Hoosier said: Temps right after the storm It’s going to get brutal I’ve been impressed with how cold it will get from it being in the upper 40s to near or below 0 depending on where you live. I hope for less rain cause that will be some serious freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Just now, SolidIcewx said: It’s going to get brutal I’ve been impressed with how cold it will get from it being in the upper 40s to near or below 0 depending on where you live. I hope for less rain cause that will be some serious freezing A GFS like solution would be a potential problem for anyone who loses power and is w/o a generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: sounds familiar, doesn’t it. we know how that worked out last time. Well gfs ended up doing well nailing the waa event being well north last time with wave 1 but this time wave 1 is going to be all rain. Wave 2 is our only hope at wintry precip and that did end up way south like euro had it so guess you're right. There are definitely similarities to GHD III but plenty of differences as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Well gfs ended up doing well nailing the waa event being well north last time with wave 1 but this time wave 1 is going to be all rain. Wave 2 is our only hope at wintry precip and that did end up way south like euro had it so guess you're right. There are definitely similarities to GHD III but plenty of differences as well. Plenty. And also are we really calling that storm GHD III? It was certainly not in the same category as GHD I and II. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: A GFS like solution would be a potential problem for anyone who loses power and is w/o a generator. Exactly that’s what has me concerned about the ice portion of the event let alone of winds play out 30 to 50 at times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 Well gfs ended up doing well nailing the waa event being well north last time with wave 1 but this time wave 1 is going to be all rain. Wave 2 is our only hope at wintry precip and that did end up way south like euro had it so guess you're right. There are definitely similarities to GHD III but plenty of differences as well. GFS was the last to cave south with the overrunning event, and in the end a compromise ended up being correct between the GFS/Euro for it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Plenty. And also are we really calling that storm GHD III? It was certainly not in the same category and GHD I and II. Well here it was pretty high impact. Travel was nearly shutdown. But I agree. First two definitely outshined it. I think GHD III was named more for the day it fell on not necessarily because of it's predecessors. But it still was a high impact storm for a large area of the US. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: GFS was the last to cave south with the overrunning event, and in the end a compromise ended up being correct between the GFS/Euro for it. . Valid point. Though I do feel euro corrected way more than gfs did, at least for round 1. Definitely curious to see if the secondary low ends up weak and south like a few weeks ago or if this one will be more amped and nw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I actually kinda like where I'm at right now. Would agree. You lie in the compromise track between 18Z GFS and Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 As Joe mentioned, would certainly be some 40-50+ mph gust potential on this run. 925 mb winds are pretty strong and that level gets tapped into. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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