ILSNOW Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 to this amateur it appears the the 12z GFS is similar to 6z but has moved its heaviest snow band back south but we have a few days to figure that out. Happy to see back to back runs like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 to this amateur it appears the the 12z GFS is similar to 6z but has moved its heaviest snow band back south but we have a few days to figure that out. Happy to see back to back runs like this. The setup is sensitive (as they all are really) to the various key pieces. Most notably from a big picture perspective being: whether northern stream (PV) is more or less suppressive, the strength and tilt of the main wave, magnitude of positive height anomalies (ridging) over us and downstream, and how much jet streak phasing/coupling occurs. All of these pieces favored a hair farther south secondary surface low track than 06z, but plenty deep enough for the heavy snow swath. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Seems to be a sensitive set up versus the last storm, but the 12z GFS is acceptable. On another note, been pounding parachutes at times here for the past hour. Where did this come from? Just gorgeous. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 38 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Yeah people are apprehensive this time around. I know people are reading but will be more active in the coming days. After GHD III it caused some burnout. Back on topic, I do like the model runs in the last bit. I’d be fine with a 3 to 5 with 40+ mph wind gusts To be honest I'm always apprehensive at models. It does not matter whether it's a small event or a big event, they can signal that something is coming but the fine details are absolutely worthless in the long range. And I do not let the models dictate my enjoyment of the weather. Nov 27- got 4.2", expected 1-2 Dec 27- got 2.0, a "chance" of snow Jan 27- got 3.1", expected 1 Feb 2/3- got 9.3", expected 10-16 The day I let enjoyment of an overperforming 3" snowfall trump that of an underperforming 9" snowfall, is the day I quit looking at models altogether and remember I'm a weather hobbyist, not a computer one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Seems to be a sensitive set up versus the last storm, but the 12z GFS is acceptable. On another note, been pounding parachutes at times here for the past hour. Where did this come from? Just gorgeous. Definitely wasn't expecting solid dendrites that far north. Don't recall seeing any forecast soundings for your area and north that didn't have the omega above the DGZ. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said: Definitely wasn't expecting solid dendrites that far north. Don't recall seeing any forecast soundings for your area and north that didn't have the omega above the DGZ. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Yeah, I was kinda surprised. Earlier this morning it was just arctic dust. But then this little enhancement moving through later has been producing really nice dendrites. Pure fluff. Back to the topic at hand, 12z UK and Canadian are not in agreement with the GFS. Still early of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 That was a pretty wild GFS run. So much snow, rain and ice around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 It looks like the main wave will be inland somewhere around Vancouver by 18z Monday. It still has to loop down through the southwest at that point, which can be tricky to forecast. The more subtle northern stream portion will be headed due south over the northern Yukon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That was a pretty wild GFS run. So much snow, rain and ice around here. Taking the run verbatim…that would be a lot of heavy snow on top of ice. Just a couple inches of snow after a couple tenths of an inch of ice causes problems. Nothing to get alarmed about at this stage in the game, but certainly something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Really almost no matter what happens from a snow perspective, there's going to be a nasty layer of ice on the bottom... not even counting freezing rain. Temps rapidly drop below freezing while precipitating so there's not going to be a chance to dry the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 6 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Taking the run verbatim…that would be a lot of heavy snow on top of ice. Just a couple inches of snow after a couple tenths of an inch of ice causes problems. Nothing to get alarmed about at this stage in the game, but certainly something to keep an eye on. Not to mention the wind. It would be breezy. Overall, the 12z GFS would be a high impact storm for northern IL/IN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 12Z Euro is not playing the GFS is on its own with the 2nd wave getting this far north. Nice 6+ from St Louis to Champaign thru Lafayette , Ft Wayne into Mich. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 12z euro is stronger and perhaps a touch NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, hlcater said: 12z euro is stronger and perhaps a touch NW. While you're at it, can you post the Euro FRAM output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 i’ve seen this before.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: i’ve seen this before. . With the GHD storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Canadian got this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, Hoosier said: While you're at it, can you post the Euro FRAM output? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, hlcater said: Thanks Some things to consider as far as the icing potential. Will the preceding warmth have a significant impact? (personally I don't think it will matter a lot as the warmth going in is not that long in duration), will precip rates be a little too high during the window of icing to prevent better accretion? (rates look like they could be moderate at times) and can any particular location have a window of freezing rain for longer than a few hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 7 hours ago, SolidIcewx said: Almost out of nowhere 2 to 4 incher coming thru DTW today I’ll be happy for it to cover up the current glacier I have as a yard. Who needs to go to Iceland when you got beautiful ice outside your door Check the radar in SW MI you can see it mesoscale low has an eye like a tropical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Feel like we just saw this play out in models recently. Oh we did. GHD III. GFS was north. Euro way south and slowly came north each run. Nam looking more like GFS but curious to see more of evolution into Thurs of secondary wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I dont know how this compares with the 00z but the 12z EPS mean is substantially further north than the operational. Especially with eastward extent. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 19 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Feel like we just saw this play out in models recently. Oh we did. GHD III. GFS was north. Euro way south and slowly came north each run. Nam looking more like GFS but curious to see more of evolution into Thurs of secondary wave. figure a 15 mile shift further north and west each day since that last event due to climatology. Calculations paint me in the bullsye. Models be damned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 5 hours ago, RCNYILWX said: Nothing says jaded snow enthusiasts like no posts on this thread for an hour when the NAM has run and looks like the 06z GFS at the end haha. FWIW, the 06z ECMWF operational, while not quite headed toward a 06z GFS type solution if extrapolated out, was an improvement from the 00z run with respect to the Hudson Bay PV lobe being farther north and less suppressive. Also upper jet configuration in that run suggests coupled jet streak would be probable and increase chances of a deeper secondary surface low. On the 06z EPS, noted a similar signal that the members with the 6"+ snow swaths were the deeper solutions. It makes sense, but it's also appearing that unlike GHD III, this event would be less likely to produce big amounts farther south if a farther southeast and weaker secondary low pans out. I spent too much time investing in the 2” I got for GHD III, so checking models once a day, hahaha 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, Baum said: figure a 15 mile shift further north and west each day since that last event due to climatology. Calculations paint me in the bullsye. Models be damned. Super (though in all seriousness, wouldn't be surprised to see the foreign models come north) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Owensnow said: Check the radar in SW MI you can see it mesoscale low has an eye like a tropical storm Yeah I seen that just now crazy cool to look at. Went from clear to 0 vis in a half mile in canton 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 I dont know how this compares with the 00z but the 12z EPS mean is substantially further north than the operational. Especially with eastward extent.There are definitely many EPS members north of the OP Euro, and on the flip side there are many GEFS members south of the OP GFS . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I know it's nam and it's long range for it, but certainly looking like it could do something nice at 500mb. Taking on a negative tilt in TX and closing off. I'm guessing it would be more north like GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Super (though in all seriousness, wouldn't be surprised to see the foreign models come north) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Definitely a little bit of a flooding threat there in NW Ohio to watch for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now