MidwestChaser Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 For those keeping score at home, my first and final call of rain was for Wednesday. I haven’t made a decision for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Just now, sbnwx85 said: For those keeping score at home, my first and final call of rain was for Wednesday. I haven’t made a decision for Thursday. Partly cloudy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said: Wow! I might get me 1" down here if I cross my fingers! ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I completely wrote off this storm and yet Toronto is back in depending on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 i'm pretty proud of myself for not even getting remotely excited 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said: Saw this map 10 days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Kuchera map better imo because ratios will probably be better than 10:1 especially Thurs with rapidly falling temperatures behind cf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Question for the pro’s why does the GEFS look so different then the op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 Question for the pro’s why does the GEFS look so different then the op run There’s a lot of spread in the ENS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Question for the pro’s why does the GEFS look so different then the op run Ensembles are leaving the door open for this to tick back north enough to bring south side and Chicago loop back in play 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Ride the UKMET 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Can’t wait for the RAP to verify again 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 15 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Kuchera map better imo because ratios will probably be better than 10:1 especially Thurs with rapidly falling temperatures behind cf I want to believe! This would be another great hit for me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I'm cool with however this pans out because for whatever reason, I never really bought into this storm to begin with. If it trends right, great. If not, whatever. No skin off my back this time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Whelp euro is drastically different from gfs. It has pretty significant icing here behind cf Wed night but secondary wave of wintry precip with low riding up the cf is significantly more south. I remember euro did this with last storm system as well then slowly nudged north to match gfs. Not saying it will but gfs is overall being more consistent run to run and euro is showing pretty different outputs each model cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 11 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Whelp euro is drastically different from gfs. It has pretty significant icing here behind cf Wed night but secondary wave of wintry precip with low riding up the cf is significantly more south. I remember euro did this with last storm system as well then slowly nudged north to match gfs. Not saying it will but gfs is overall being more consistent run to run and euro is showing pretty different outputs each model cycle. Would like a real storm for once this year. Tired of being nickle and dimed on the fringe of events missing south. Two years of this nonsense. Rather just have a rain storm at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, frostfern said: Would like a real storm for once this year. Tired of being nickle and dimed on the fringe of events missing south. Two years of this nonsense. Rather just have a rain storm at this point. Big differences aloft on euro. Northern stream trough digs much more south and is slower to depart which slows and shunts southern stream wave south. On gfs the northern stream trough initially digs south but then flattens and pushes east. This allows the southern stream piece to eject quicker and more north. It also took on a negative tilt which allowed a much stronger sfc low to develop ne. Euro has a much weaker sfc low south with a more strung out trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Big differences aloft on euro. Northern stream trough digs much more south and is slower to depart which slows and shunts southern stream wave south. On gfs the northern stream trough initially digs south but then flattens and pushes east. This allows the southern stream piece to eject quicker and more north. It also took on a negative tilt which allowed a much stronger sfc low to develop ne. Euro has a much weaker sfc low south with a more strung out trough. Yea. The OP Euro doesn't phase the jets at all, while the GFS phases too late and too far south for my liking. I really should stop obsessing over OP runs while the ensembles are still all over the place. The parent wave is south of Alaska at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Almost out of nowhere 2 to 4 incher coming thru DTW today I’ll be happy for it to cover up the current glacier I have as a yard. Who needs to go to Iceland when you got beautiful ice outside your door Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 As noted earlier, very large spread still on the GEFS, with many members northwest of the operational and the mean. Compared to the 18z GEFS, solid cluster of member lows west/northwest of the mean Wednesday night into Thursday. The 00z ECMWF (EPS) ensemble also definitely left the door open for the main wave and associated secondary low pressure to track farther northwest. Comparing to the 18z EPS, similarly to the 00z GEFS, the 00Z EPS has a solid clustering of member lows northwest of the ensemble mean Wednesday night into Thursday. Along the lines of my post yesterday, a distinct majority of the GEFS and EPS members with 6"+ snow swaths are tied to the deeper solutions. And sure enough, the 06z GFS came in way deeper and farther northwest with the secondary low. Given the trend on the 00z suite and continued on the 06z GFS/GEFS, I wouldn't at all hang it up yet in eastern Iowa, NW IL, northern Chicago burbs and southern WI. Plenty of time to go on this one with multiple moving parts. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I'll be back Tuesday....this is crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 based on climatology, i like my chances. Old trends sometimes die hard. Time to bury the progressive, weaker trends on ejecting southwest energy riding baroclinic zones. Go with the gut. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Nothing says jaded snow enthusiasts like no posts on this thread for an hour when the NAM has run and looks like the 06z GFS at the end haha. FWIW, the 06z ECMWF operational, while not quite headed toward a 06z GFS type solution if extrapolated out, was an improvement from the 00z run with respect to the Hudson Bay PV lobe being farther north and less suppressive. Also upper jet configuration in that run suggests coupled jet streak would be probable and increase chances of a deeper secondary surface low. On the 06z EPS, noted a similar signal that the members with the 6"+ snow swaths were the deeper solutions. It makes sense, but it's also appearing that unlike GHD III, this event would be less likely to produce big amounts farther south if a farther southeast and weaker secondary low pans out. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 24 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Nothing says jaded snow enthusiasts like no posts on this thread for an hour when the NAM has run and looks like the 06z GFS at the end haha. FWIW, the 06z ECMWF operational, while not quite headed toward a 06z GFS type solution if extrapolated out, was an improvement from the 00z run with respect to the Hudson Bay PV lobe being farther north and less suppressive. Also upper jet configuration in that run suggests coupled jet streak would be probable and increase chances of a deeper secondary surface low. On the 06z EPS, noted a similar signal that the members with the 6"+ snow swaths were the deeper solutions. It makes sense, but it's also appearing that unlike GHD III, this event would be less likely to produce big amounts farther south if a farther southeast and weaker secondary low pans out. Yeah people are apprehensive this time around. I know people are reading but will be more active in the coming days. After GHD III it caused some burnout. Back on topic, I do like the model runs in the last bit. I’d be fine with a 3 to 5 with 40+ mph wind gusts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Purely anecdotal too (didn't look into the moving parts), I don't think the Ukie ever really showed an amped solution with GHDIII ever, so nice to see at least a run with that solution during the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 32 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: Nothing says jaded snow enthusiasts like no posts on this thread for an hour when the NAM has run and looks like the 06z GFS at the end haha. FWIW, the 06z ECMWF operational, while not quite headed toward a 06z GFS type solution if extrapolated out, was an improvement from the 00z run with respect to the Hudson Bay PV lobe being farther north and less suppressive. Also upper jet configuration in that run suggests coupled jet streak would be probable and increase chances of a deeper secondary surface low. On the 06z EPS, noted a similar signal that the members with the 6"+ snow swaths were the deeper solutions. It makes sense, but it's also appearing that unlike GHD III, this event would be less likely to produce big amounts farther south if a farther southeast and weaker secondary low pans out. this has always been a slow crew fwiw on a sunday morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 7 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Yeah people are apprehensive this time around. I know people are reading but will be more active in the coming days. After GHD III it caused some burnout. Back on topic, I do like the model runs in the last bit. I’d be fine with a 3 to 5 with 40+ mph wind gusts apprehensive after a blanket 4-12" snowfall over a good part of MO.,IN,South Mich, Illinois, and Ohio? Now that screams "jaded." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 Really wouldn’t get invested in things until tomorrow or more-so Monday.bump. the time has come. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Just now, Chicago Storm said: bump. the time has come. Great time to begin haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now