Cary67 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 This is awful. The whole thread is suffering from NW LOT syndrome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 17 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Some models had pushed all precip southeast of Cedar Rapids, but scattered patches of sleet and light snow are moving through the area... enough to coat the pavement and cause DVN to issue an advisory. Could be a valuable ob for folks downstream in the coming hours. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 With so much negative vibes, how about that 3z RAP. Not gonna ride it, but it's getting into the range when it's not automatically trashworthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 13 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: Current mood: Updated mood: 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: With so much negative vibes, how about that 3z RAP. Not gonna ride it, but it's getting into the range when it's not automatically trashworthy. insta-toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: insta-toss. Had the same thought to myself upon seeing the 00z GFS. Very stingy on the northern end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 This storm will certainly be feast of famine for some, who is yet to be determined. I feel for the Mets/NWS in times like these. What a mess to sort through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 The difference between the GFS from the 00z 48hours ago is beyond lol worthy. Wow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Pretty sure I just saw a flash of lightning here in Hyde Park Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
laferri2 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Very much looking forward to someone 10 miles north of me or 10 miles south of me getting a good 6+ inches. The only nine incher I'll have to worry about anytime soon is the one I can't talk about in public. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Models are not handling the temp drop behind the front very well. Almost every 00z run is too cold with temps in northern IL at 06z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Models are not handling the temp drop behind the front very well. Almost every 00z run is too cold with temps in northern IL at 06z. Think maybe that could be part of issue with models shifting south? Or was that mostly because of weaker south sfc low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Think maybe that could be part of issue with models shifting south? Or was that mostly because of weaker south sfc low? What I posted was not meant to imply anything in regards to where the surface low is going to track. I didn't check the current frontal position. That could be spot on for all I know. Just noticed that temps behind it are not dropping off as quickly, which is probably going to further reduce the already questionable freezing rain prospects over the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: What I posted was not meant to imply anything in regards to where the surface low is going to track. I didn't check the current frontal position. That could be spot on for all I know. Just noticed that temps behind it are not dropping off as quickly, which is probably going to further reduce the already questionable freezing rain prospects over the next several hours. Yet another gift from this POS storm. Lol. PUNT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Yet another gift from this POS storm. Lol. PUNT Two perfect names for future forecast models… 06z POS and PUNT coming in hot. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 The 5z RAP was actually a tad north of the 3z run. Might as well wait up for the 6z run which is currently running. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The 5z RAP was actually a tad north of the 3z run. Might as well wait up for the 6z run which is currently running. Send it and wait out the 12z bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The 5z RAP was actually a tad north of the 3z run. Might as well wait up for the 6z run which is currently running. Looks a touch north at first glance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 If only RAP was right. I would be so happy. But HRRR more realistic and in line with other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Temp has quickly gone from being in the 50s down to 36 now, with a bit of assistance from winds coming off of the cold lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Switching to freezing rain here now with the temp down to 32. Picked up 0.45" of rain this eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 06z nam bumped north slightly with higher totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Interesting that the euro came in more juiced up. Not that it means alot at this point but gotta stop the hemorrhaging somehow. And yeah the 06z runs stopping the south bleed thank god Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said: 06z nam bumped north slightly with higher totals But the 06z NAM also noticably drier. The WSWs would be quite marginal, with just barely over 6" in the heaviest part of the band. 06z RGEM is wetter though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
85snowline Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 If your interested in thundersnow. The Santa Fe Junction Kansas City Railcam on YouTube has awesome thundersnow at 04:53.30 CST 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Rip city in Kansas City METAR KMCI 171145Z AUTO 01013KT 1/4SM +SN VV005 M06/M07 A3007 RMK P0010 METAR KMCI 171140Z AUTO 01018KT 1/4SM +SN VV005 M06/M07 A3005 RMK P0009 METAR KMCI 171135Z AUTO 01018G25KT 1/4SM +SN VV005 M06/M07 A3004 RMK P0007 METAR KMCI 171130Z AUTO 01017G22KT 1/4SM +SN VV005 M06/M07 A3005 RMK P0006 METAR KMCI 171125Z AUTO 01016KT 1/4SM +SN VV005 M06/M07 A3004 RMK P0006 METAR KMCI 171120Z AUTO 01023KT 1/4SM +SN VV005 M06/M08 A3003 RMK P0005 METAR KMCI 171115Z AUTO 01019KT 1/4SM +SN VV005 M06/M08 A3003 RMK P0004 METAR KMCI 171110Z AUTO 02019G24KT 1/4SM +SN VV005 M06/M08 A3003 RMK P0002 METAR KMCI 171105Z AUTO 02020G26KT 1/4SM +SN VV007 M06/M08 A3003 RMK P0002 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 checks in. F'n Alek. checks out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baum said: checks in. F'n Alek. checks out. SE trend like ice cream. Too much made him sick but he's not the only one who ate from that bowl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 7 hours ago, cyclone77 said: The difference between the GFS from the 00z 48hours ago is beyond lol worthy. Wow. Trash model, particularly when it comes to southern stream winter storms. Noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Cary67 said: SE trend like ice cream. Too much made him sick but he's not the only one who ate from that bowl. eh I've seen far bigger collapses in the days when your only resource was 312-976-1212(NWS Chicago) and the local TV Mets who were conditioned to only forecast 1-3,2-4, and 4 inches or more. Many times waiting on the snowstorm, looking at the sky for the storm that was never coming. Nowadays, when you have one model all in, and 2or 3 all out you know the game can go either way. It was pretty clear two days ago when the american models burped where we were headed. Real hilarity, is wife's school called a snow day yesterday at 4pm. As a kid, it would have taken 20" for me to sniff an off day...like the 1979 blizzard....and even that took until 7 am. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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