SolidIcewx Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Called it with the major impact upgrade 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 22 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Seems like this didn’t happen as much growing up, but I remember a few times where 6-10” was forecast and woke up to less than a dusting on the ground. There is people around here 40 years old who have never seen a 18+ event. That's crazy. PD I ( Feb 79 east coast ) is what got me going. Ofcourse there was more like it after till I left in 2002 and has been more to this day. Oh what I wouldn't give to see 2-3 inch hr rates again for more then 5 minutes. This was never modeled to be a big dog but damn. Long live 13-14 and GHD ll. Ofcourse that event that a few days out I do recall models showing 20+ across this area. I still have alot of the model output for that on my computer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, Harry said: There is people around here 40 years old who have never seen a 18+ event. That's crazy. PD I ( Feb 79 east coast ) is what got me going. Ofcourse there was more like it after till I left in 2002 and has been more to this day. Oh what I wouldn't give to see 2-3 inch hr rates again for more then 5 minutes. This was never modeled to be a big dog but damn. Long live 13-14 and GHD ll. Ofcourse that event that a few days out I do recall models showing 20+ across this area. I still have alot of the model output for that on my computer. It would be nice if I could come on this forum and go a one full day without somebody bringing up damn ghd2 lol. Edit ghd1 2011. 2014 still sucked too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 24 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Seems like this didn’t happen as much growing up, but I remember a few times where 6-10” was forecast and woke up to less than a dusting on the ground. I think it was November 1997 when there was a Winter Storm Warning for 6-9 inches of snow here for the next day. This was back when The Weather Channel had the NWS forecast on the local forecast and that was how I saw the NWS forecast as I didn’t have the internet yet at the time. So the next morning I woke up to find the Winter Storm Warning gone and a forecast of 1-3 inches. We never had a flake from that storm. The Detroit area ended up getting the 6-9 inches and the northern edge made it up to around Flint where they got a couple of inches. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: It would be nice if I could come on this forum and go a one full day without somebody bringing up damn ghd2 lol. GHD is quickly going into the same dumpster as "Katrina" in my mind. Tired of hearing about them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 54 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: At least the rains are delivering Still not raining here. Towel thrown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, roardog said: I think it was November 1997 when there was a Winter Storm Warning for 6-9 inches of snow here for the next day. This was back when The Weather Channel had the NWS forecast on the local forecast and that was how I saw the NWS forecast as I didn’t have the internet yet at the time. So the next morning I woke up to find the Winter Storm Warning gone and a forecast of 1-3 inches. We never had a flake from that storm. The Detroit area ended up getting the 6-9 inches and the northern edge made it up to around Flint where they got a couple of inches. I remember this. This was one of the events I remembered. The other was 2005-6ish. Dry air infiltration completely demolished the deformation zone snows with a sharp cut-off. Literally nothing but virga and a sharp NE wind. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, Harry said: There is people around here 40 years old who have never seen a 18+ event. That's crazy. PD I ( Feb 79 east coast ) is what got me going. Ofcourse there was more like it after till I left in 2002 and has been more to this day. Oh what I wouldn't give to see 2-3 inch hr rates again for more then 5 minutes. This was never modeled to be a big dog but damn. Long live 13-14 and GHD ll. Ofcourse that event that a few days out I do recall models showing 20+ across this area. I still have alot of the model output for that on my computer. Heck, I think I've only seen Hail maybe 3 times with a thunderstorm. Two of those times it was stray stones mixed in with rain. And as far as thundersnow, I've only seen it 2 times (one of which was with a LES squall). I'm not exactly a spring chicken either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Funny all this southern trending and down here in Indy nobody even talking about it lol. I mean I'm not expecting much either but the freezing rain looks like a bigger deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 And of course, the 00z RGEM is wetter and bumped NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 34 minutes ago, Harry said: There is people around here 40 years old who have never seen a 18+ event. That's crazy. PD I ( Feb 79 east coast ) is what got me going. Ofcourse there was more like it after till I left in 2002 and has been more to this day. Oh what I wouldn't give to see 2-3 inch hr rates again for more then 5 minutes. This was never modeled to be a big dog but damn. Long live 13-14 and GHD ll. Ofcourse that event that a few days out I do recall models showing 20+ across this area. I still have alot of the model output for that on my computer. Those rates would be niiiiice. I’m 33 and think the biggest system I can recall is GHDII. Seems like there were big ones all the time when I was young, but when you’re only 3’ tall… doesn’t take much to have snow up to your knees. But yeah, this system… this one is exciting. Loved how GRR stated this to be a high end advisory yesterday, yet issued a warning today and will likely bust (unless these short range ensembles are correct). They’ll never issue a watch or warning here again. Ever. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Finally raining here, storm back on... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 GFS keeps moving south, what a garbage system and/or garbage model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, Powerball said: And of course, the 00z RGEM is wetter and bumped NW. Hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 18 minutes ago, Powerball said: Heck, I think I've only seen Hail maybe 3 times with a thunderstorm. Two of those times it was stray stones mixed in with rain. And as far as thundersnow, I've only seen it 2 times (one of which was with a LES squall). I'm not exactly a spring chicken either. Severe wx and especially hail I cannot complain about here as far as hail and high winds go. Ofcourse tornadoes can stay away. Lol but yeah there has been a few decent hailers the past 5 years or so here. One hailer did 1,000s in damage to my vehicle though. Thank you insurance. This place does decent with wind and hail. Thundersnow is awesome especially if you are outside when it happens. My first experience with it was with what was called the megalopolis Strom in Feb 1983. Over 20 imby with that. Talk about being wowed when that happened. Besides that it was a daytime event as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Stebo said: GFS keeps moving south, what a garbage system and/or garbage model. I've about had it with this system lol. Still going to look at the models of course but now we are getting to the point when we can watch upstream radar and obs to see how things are going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Front just passed Chicago. Low still in western Texas.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Those rates would be niiiiice. I’m 33 and think the biggest system I can recall is GHDII. Seems like there were big ones all the time when I was young, but when you’re only 3’ tall… doesn’t take much to have snow up to your knees. But yeah, this system… this one is exciting. Loved how GRR stated this to be a high end advisory yesterday, yet issued a warning today and will likely bust (unless these short range ensembles are correct). They’ll never issue a watch or warning here again. Ever. Lol. You got that right with GRR. Ofcourse the amounts shown by them ( unless something has changed? ) are not warning amounts anyways. Thought I recall 8+ in 12hrs was the criteria here? Anyways this has turned into a huge turd and as said can keep going south and totally miss as far as I am concerned. Ofcourse I know it won't and there will be just enough to screw up the roads etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, Stebo said: GFS keeps moving south, what a garbage system and/or garbage model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Have a couple pie plate sized snow patches left. All drifts and plow mounds gone in my yard. See where we stand tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 13 minutes ago, Stebo said: GFS keeps moving south, what a garbage system and/or garbage model. Yep. Garbage all the way. System and model. Spring ( real spring that is. Not 40s cloudy and rain ) cannot get here fast enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Gonna call bust here 4" when all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 0.36" rain so far, temp down to 35. Already a more valuable system than GHD3 was for here lol. Nice to get some moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 It is 50 right now and somehow we might be missed to the south 15 hours from now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Some models had pushed all precip southeast of Cedar Rapids, but scattered patches of sleet and light snow are moving through the area... enough to coat the pavement and cause DVN to issue an advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasestormz39 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 23 hours ago, janetjanet998 said: For some reason I foresee an overachieving sleet storm for us Some areas north of I72 are going to bust so bad with their winter storm warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 7 minutes ago, Stebo said: It is 50 right now and somehow we might be missed to the south 15 hours from now. Cold front is moving a bit quicker than previously thought.. at this rate Flat Rock to Adrian point south is in line for 3-5” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: Cold front is moving a bit quicker than previously thought.. at this rate Flat Rock to Adrian point south is in line for 3-5” Yeah I don't think so, nothing is that bad not even the shitty gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 This, this is impressive. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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