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Feb 16-17th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


0z NAM SE/weaker/drier. 


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no doubt. The 0 call is back in play. Those hoping for a flicker of hope for a late swing in Chicago metro  are on life support. It happens. Worse, as it fades SE it becomes less consequential to those in the sweet spot.

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6 minutes ago, Powerball said:

Can't help but feel bad for the mets in Detroit if the bleeding doesn't stop, after what happened with GHD 3.

This has been happening for at least the past 3 years like ive stated before. More storms have missed to the SE the past few years than prob the 10 years combined. It's a weird feeling after going so long with what seemed like a nw trend with every event, which resulted in sleet/ice.

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3 minutes ago, Powerball said:

In essence, the NAM suggests that the string of WSW and WWAs in Michigan have been extended 1 row of counties too far north.

And that's not even considering it's been on the more apled/NW end of guidance the entire time

At this point its more monitoring the radar than looking at models. Even at this point, you can trust the models. Most of metro detroit should do well.

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8 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Think a WWA would suffice for here. Icing looks nil, and with the south bleeding continuing, 2-4” looks like a real solid call. Possible that’s too generous. :arrowhead:

LOT updated their graphic not long ago and bumped our totals up. Has some of Kankakee county at 8+ now 

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The NW trend back in the day used to be as much of a guarantee as the SE trend is today. I wonder if the model updates over the years are the reason for that. Maybe changes were made to “fix” that issue and have now resulted in the opposite problem. Now we just need a model that understands how far south an MCS will track in the warm months. 

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3 hours ago, WeatherMonger said:

Wonder how the overnight and tomorrow severe weather is going to hinder moisture transport, really didn't have to worry about it 2 weeks ago.

I was in on an update with IWX this afternoon and the mets there said that it wasn't much of a concern to them, that there will be plenty of moisture pumped up here.

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4 minutes ago, Powerball said:

I'm just amazed at how these storms seemingly keep unraveling when we get so close to onset.

 I think it's been happening a lot recently because these low pressure systems are being shunted to the East so quickly and aren't being allowed to close off and go negative tilt. Lower the chances for big snows when they cant amplify and slow down.

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I was in on an update with IWX this afternoon and the mets there said that it wasn't much of a concern to them, that there will be plenty of moisture pumped up here.

Makes sense.

In this case trajectories are more towards the N/NE, instead of veering east with a squall line racing well east…That’s when we run into more of an issue. In this case the N/NE trajectory will cause an overlap of some convection making it into the cold sector, which is why we have that narrow axis of ‘higher’ snowfall accumulations being possible. Without it, deformation axis snows are lower end.


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11 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

 I think it's been happening a lot recently because these low pressure systems are being shunted to the East so quickly and aren't being allowed to close off and go negative tilt. Lower the chances for big snows when they cant amplify and slow down.

 

Typical mw garbage. 

This south trending bs needs to cease! 

As far as this crapfest storm  goes it may as well keep going south and miss. Had enough of these just enough to screw up the roads etc systems to last a lifetime! 

 

Hopefully the rain tonight can wash away the rest of the crap ( sheets of ice now was snow ) on the ground. 

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2 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

I don’t know… this smells like a bust around here. 

I could not imagine having to spend my whole life here. Ofcourse I doubt I would have had as much interest in this stuff if I had grown up here. This same crap results gets very boring. 

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On 2/12/2022 at 2:04 PM, IWXwx said:

 

 

 

 

Untitled 1.gif

 

9 minutes ago, Baum said:

from now on all threads should be titled " date possible shit storm".

Alek's stank south call is beginning to look money, but I want to point out that I also called dumpster fire on page 3. :D

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2 minutes ago, Harry said:

I could not imagine having to spend my whole life here. Ofcourse I doubt I would have had as much interest in this stuff if I had grown up here. This same crap results gets very boring. 

Seems like this didn’t happen as much growing up, but I remember a few times where 6-10” was forecast and woke up to less than a dusting on the ground.

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28 minutes ago, IWXwx said:

I was in on an update with IWX this afternoon and the mets there said that it wasn't much of a concern to them, that there will be plenty of moisture pumped up here.

 

20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Makes sense.

In this case trajectories are more towards the N/NE, instead of veering east with a squall line racing well east…That’s when we run into more of an issue. In this case the N/NE trajectory will cause an overlap of some convection making it into the cold sector, which is why we have that narrow axis of ‘higher’ snowfall accumulations being possible. Without it, deformation axis snows are lower end.


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I agree with these thoughts, yes it is a bit annoying that there is a drying trend in the models right before the system hits but I don't see this unraveling as fast and there is ample moisture heading north without a blocking heavy rain MCS like back in December.

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