Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 00z HRRR is also notably drier.0z NAM SE/weaker/drier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 HRW FV3 is also drier and it bumped south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Can't help but feel bad for the mets in Detroit if the bleeding doesn't stop, after what happened with GHD 3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Bout ready to do a punt with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z NAM SE/weaker/drier. . no doubt. The 0 call is back in play. Those hoping for a flicker of hope for a late swing in Chicago metro are on life support. It happens. Worse, as it fades SE it becomes less consequential to those in the sweet spot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 6 minutes ago, Powerball said: Can't help but feel bad for the mets in Detroit if the bleeding doesn't stop, after what happened with GHD 3. This has been happening for at least the past 3 years like ive stated before. More storms have missed to the SE the past few years than prob the 10 years combined. It's a weird feeling after going so long with what seemed like a nw trend with every event, which resulted in sleet/ice. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 LAF attempting to reel one in? Tricky call around there though with timing of changeover being crucial in what is not a very long lasting event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Think a WWA would suffice for here. Icing looks nil, and with the south bleeding continuing, 2-4” looks like a real solid call. Possible that’s too generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 In essence, the NAM suggests that the string of WSW and WWAs in Michigan have been extended 1 row of counties too far north. And that's not even considering it's been on the more amped/NW end of guidance the entire time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Powerball said: In essence, the NAM suggests that the string of WSW and WWAs in Michigan have been extended 1 row of counties too far north. And that's not even considering it's been on the more apled/NW end of guidance the entire time At this point its more monitoring the radar than looking at models. Even at this point, you can trust the models. Most of metro detroit should do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Just now, Stevo6899 said: At this point its more monitoring the radar than looking at models. Even at this point, you can trust the models. Most of metro detroit should do well. I'm just amazed at how these storms seemingly keep unraveling when we get so close to onset. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Think a WWA would suffice for here. Icing looks nil, and with the south bleeding continuing, 2-4” looks like a real solid call. Possible that’s too generous. LOT updated their graphic not long ago and bumped our totals up. Has some of Kankakee county at 8+ now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 The NW trend back in the day used to be as much of a guarantee as the SE trend is today. I wonder if the model updates over the years are the reason for that. Maybe changes were made to “fix” that issue and have now resulted in the opposite problem. Now we just need a model that understands how far south an MCS will track in the warm months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 hours ago, WeatherMonger said: Wonder how the overnight and tomorrow severe weather is going to hinder moisture transport, really didn't have to worry about it 2 weeks ago. I was in on an update with IWX this afternoon and the mets there said that it wasn't much of a concern to them, that there will be plenty of moisture pumped up here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: I'm just amazed at how these storms seemingly keep unraveling when we get so close to onset. I think it's been happening a lot recently because these low pressure systems are being shunted to the East so quickly and aren't being allowed to close off and go negative tilt. Lower the chances for big snows when they cant amplify and slow down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 17, 2022 Author Share Posted February 17, 2022 I was in on an update with IWX this afternoon and the mets there said that it wasn't much of a concern to them, that there will be plenty of moisture pumped up here.Makes sense.In this case trajectories are more towards the N/NE, instead of veering east with a squall line racing well east…That’s when we run into more of an issue. In this case the N/NE trajectory will cause an overlap of some convection making it into the cold sector, which is why we have that narrow axis of ‘higher’ snowfall accumulations being possible. Without it, deformation axis snows are lower end.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 At least the rains are delivering 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 from now on all threads should be titled " date possible shit storm". 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 https://maps.api.weatherbell.com/gif/temporary/nam-nest-greatlakes-refc_ptype-1645056000-1645120800-1645142400-10.gif hope the link works for the nam a 6 hour window Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Just now, A-L-E-K said: At least the rains are delivering finally some optimism. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 11 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: I think it's been happening a lot recently because these low pressure systems are being shunted to the East so quickly and aren't being allowed to close off and go negative tilt. Lower the chances for big snows when they cant amplify and slow down. Typical mw garbage. This south trending bs needs to cease! As far as this crapfest storm goes it may as well keep going south and miss. Had enough of these just enough to screw up the roads etc systems to last a lifetime! Hopefully the rain tonight can wash away the rest of the crap ( sheets of ice now was snow ) on the ground. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 I don’t know… this smells like a bust around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 LOT update: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Harry Perry said: I don’t know… this smells like a bust around here. I could not imagine having to spend my whole life here. Ofcourse I doubt I would have had as much interest in this stuff if I had grown up here. This same crap results gets very boring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 On 2/12/2022 at 2:04 PM, IWXwx said: 9 minutes ago, Baum said: from now on all threads should be titled " date possible shit storm". Alek's stank south call is beginning to look money, but I want to point out that I also called dumpster fire on page 3. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, Harry said: I could not imagine having to spend my whole life here. Ofcourse I doubt I would have had as much interest in this stuff if I had grown up here. This same crap results gets very boring. Seems like this didn’t happen as much growing up, but I remember a few times where 6-10” was forecast and woke up to less than a dusting on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 4 hours ago, sbnwx85 said: Final call: 6.9". Nice. Call already in danger. Should have waited 12 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: Call already in danger. Should have waited 12 hours. remember when you were hoping for a SE trend? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 28 minutes ago, IWXwx said: I was in on an update with IWX this afternoon and the mets there said that it wasn't much of a concern to them, that there will be plenty of moisture pumped up here. 20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Makes sense. In this case trajectories are more towards the N/NE, instead of veering east with a squall line racing well east…That’s when we run into more of an issue. In this case the N/NE trajectory will cause an overlap of some convection making it into the cold sector, which is why we have that narrow axis of ‘higher’ snowfall accumulations being possible. Without it, deformation axis snows are lower end. . I agree with these thoughts, yes it is a bit annoying that there is a drying trend in the models right before the system hits but I don't see this unraveling as fast and there is ample moisture heading north without a blocking heavy rain MCS like back in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baum said: remember when you were hoping for a SE trend? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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