SolidIcewx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Snownado said: Obviously they are not expecting much if any accumulating snow in Ft Wayne. Otherwise the impact would be much higher. Mostly for Detroit metro I’m curious as to why they don’t have impacts rated higher. Flash freeze, some freezing rain, a switch to snow then heavy snow potentially during the evening rush not to mention the winds cranking a bit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 I'm sitting pretty much in the bullseye for snow totals right now. It would be crazy to get two major storms back to back in just two weeks. I've seen places to my north get hammered repeatedly in recent Februrarys so it's nice to finally cash in on the snow train! The icing on the cake would be thundersnow, but it seems models have down trended the instability as the storm gets closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 LOT afd again mentioning near-blizzard conditions. Not sure if it will clearly be far enough over the threshold for them to upgrade to a blizzard warning later on, but will at least be close. In terms of observation sites to watch for, GYY would probably have the best shot given their closer proximity to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 LOT increased totals for it's southern zones, and upgraded Cental cook Co. to a WSW. Not much change in actual forecast wording so not sure the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Mostly for Detroit metro I’m curious as to why they don’t have impacts rated higher. Flash freeze, some freezing rain, a switch to snow then heavy snow potentially during the evening rush not to mention the winds cranking a bit I wouldn't get too hung up on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Expectations are for heavy snow impacting the Thursday Evening commute across the Detroit Metro Area and points south, as strong upper level wave comes out of southern Arizona and becomes absorbed within the strong southwest flow of the northern stream trough. Combined 6hr 500 MB height fall center looks to be tracking along the southern Michigan/northwest Ohio border, and favor heaviest band of snow along/just above 850 MB shear axis/fgen zone. Short duration (~21-3z) of the intense lift, but at least several hours of snowfall rates of 1+ inch/hr at any given location. Very sharp NW-SE moisture gradient in place, but still strong consensus of 4 g/kg in the 850-700 MB layer lingering around I-94 corridor in the early evening before aggressive drying then takes place for the rest of the evening and Thursday night. Despite the 12z Euro coming in rather progressive and unimpressive from a QPF perspective (compared to RAP/NAM), have elected to issue a winter storm warning for Detroit Metro Area and points south for 4-8" (especially after giving the 18z NAM a quick peak, which is very agressive). With the peak timing occuring during the Thursday evening commute, and some wind and drier snow on the back end, seems like this event will be highly impactful for travel concerns, especially if a layer of ice develops under the snow as well. Far southeast areas TTF-DET could still be under influence of the leftover marginal warm layer aoa 5000 feet to lead to sleet initially Thursday afternoon, which would cut down on snow amounts for those areas. On flip side, locations north of I-94 have chance to overachieve if snow to liquid ratios end up higher than forecast or if we are able to tap into the instability/negative EPV above the frontal zone indicated in cross sections. very interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, Hoosier said: LOT afd again mentioning near-blizzard conditions. Not sure if it will clearly be far enough over the threshold for them to upgrade to a blizzard warning later on, but will at least be close. In terms of observation sites to watch for, GYY would probably have the best shot given their closer proximity to the lake. Is the gary station at the airport or the university? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cutlew Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 12 minutes ago, Baum said: LOT increased totals for it's southern zones, and upgraded Cental cook Co. to a WSW. Not much change in actual forecast wording so not sure the point. They were picturing the outbound Eisenhower on a good day and then adding inch/hr snow and near blizzard conditions during peak commute and hoped the words “storm warning” would get more people to work from home? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 ILX upped warning totals here to 5-8" with a tenth or two of ice accrual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night) ISSUED AT 301 PM CST Wed Feb 16 2022 Some of the more significant highlights: 1) Snow amounts have been increased into the 6-10" range from near Quincy northeast to just north of Bloomington. Latest HREF guidance shows the heaviest snow rates between noon and 3 pm along this axis, generally 1" per hour with a high potential for rates of 2" per hour in west central Illinois. A sharp gradient on the south edge will be noted, with amounts of 1-3" from around Taylorville to Danville. 2) Freezing rain accumulations from 1/10 to 2/10". HREF hints at potential quarter inch accumulations near I-70 during the afternoon. 3) Wind gusts 40-45 mph across east central Illinois during the afternoon, as 3-hour pressure changes of 5-8 mb are noted late afternoon and early evening. Will need to closely monitor the potential for some blizzard conditions during the afternoon, with HREF probabilities around 30% of visibility below a half mile and sustained winds above 30 mph. Blowing snow has been added to the forecast. 4) No significant changes in the winter storm warning expanded earlier, though the advisory was expanded south to I-70. Both were extended until 9 pm Thursday. 5) Flood watch remains in place, with the heaviest rain axis remaining south of I-70. See the Hydrology section below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 20 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said: Is the gary station at the airport or the university? Airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 18z RGEM came in even drier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 57 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: Something that popped into my head that is kind of interesting. My first memory of posting on this forum was with the Feb 7/8 storm in 2013. Crazy to think that it's been over 9 since since then and that we still interact from time to time on this forum. Time flies. Yup, I was 20 in 2006 when I started posting over at Eastern. Now I'm 35. Time waits for no one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Powerball said: 18z RGEM came in even drier. Wonder if it's a bias. Was the driest for the Jan 17 storm (way wrong) and GHDIII (spot on). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Powerball said: 18z RGEM came in even drier. Dtx put some weight from the 18z nam into its decision to issue warnings, regardless what the euro showed. Nam over rgem all day lolol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 It is such a mess outside with the frozen ground and melting snow. There are literally sheets of consolidated ice with water on top of them. We've not had bare ground in about a month and even then the ground was already frozen. I'm really hoping we can avoid the heaviest rain. The one good thing is it does appear to be a break between the rain and the Winter part of the storm as temperatures fall below freezing. By the time the 2nd round of precipitation starts, whether it starts a snow or briefly begins a sleet or freezing rain, temperatures should already be in the 20s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Springtime warmth one day followed by a solid snowstorm the next. Not too many events I can think of like that. Feb 6, 2008 is about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Springtime warmth one day followed by a solid snowstorm the next. Not too many events I can think of like that. Feb 6, 2008 is about it. I remember quite a few from the early 2000s. One of the regions most infamous of course would be January 26, 1967. Record temperatures in the 60s immediately preceded the record storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: I remember quite a few from the early 2000s. One of the regions most infamous of course would be January 26, 1967. Record temperatures in the 60s immediately preceded the record storm. Yeah it is pretty common for SE MI. I am very used to the snow cover melting just before a big dog moves in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 I give you the NCEP trash known as the GFS... 8 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: I give you the NCEP trash known as the GFS... Poor alek gets the shaft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I give you the NCEP trash known as the GFS... GFS ... garbage for sale. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I give you the NCEP trash known as the GFS... And that is in just over 3 days time. Sometimes people post op runs for almost 2 weeks later than that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I give you the NCEP trash known as the GFS... Euro for comparison. undefeated. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Natester said: Poor alek gets the shaft. His call was 0 from 5 days ago. He should be dancing given him shows him getting 3". Lesson for all; set your expectations low and you won't be disappointed. Oddly, that 18Z looks better for areas further NW in Chicago metro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baum said: His call was 0 from 5 days ago. He should be dancing given him shows him getting 3". Lesson for all; set your expectations low and you won't be disappointed. Oddly, that 18Z looks better for areas further NW in Chicago metro. Some guidance continues to try to put down several inches tonight in N IL. But realistically, the chances of anything meaningful seem low as of now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 17 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: I give you the NCEP trash known as the GFS... Fire everyone at NCEP. Literally everyone and bring in Joe and Alek and let them head it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Euro for comparison. undefeated. Definitely won this round. I thought the Euro hadn't been performing particularly well this winter though. Maybe it handles systems from the southern stream better leaving the clippers to the CMC and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Glad to see them taking it a little more seriously 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulder Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Only significant-ish outliers at this point are NAM and RAP, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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