SolidIcewx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 17 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: 12z euro took a big dump on this run. The secondary low never really takes off so you don't get a nice wrapped up deformation band of wintry precip behind the cf like GFS has. A lot of moving pieces with this. Curious to see how it evolves. Yeah euro had some Taco Bell apparently. Now showing a lower high here on Thursday which is pretty cool 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Frog Town said: An observation if you will. It's one thing when a bunch of us weenies are discussing and dissecting the possibilities with these storms a week out. But when local mets starting showing something 7 days out saying a snow storm is on the horizon, you end up with a skeptic public when two days later the forecast has made a 180 turn. They really should wait till 3-4 days out to even show a graphic. i.e. the 12Z Euro People still watch local TV mets? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Baum said: People still watch local TV mets? Definitely not us. We are not normal. Normal people still rely on the 6 o'clock news... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: While not a carbon copy, there are a lot of similarities to the early Feb winter storm (GHD3). Many of the same moving pieces will be in place and a factor, and how they interact will obviously dictate how things progress. Based on how things look at face value on guidance as of now, it would not be surprising if this ended up close to where GHD3 hit. Shall see how things evolve over the coming days though. Really wouldn’t get invested in things until tomorrow or more-so Monday. . Although I obviously hope Joe is right about his hunch of being similar to GHD3 (12.3" here), right now is what I'm seeing for FWA: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Although I obviously hope Joe is right about his hunch of being similar to GHD3 (12.3" here), right now is what I'm seeing for FWA:Placement, not potential*. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, IWXwx said: Although I obviously hope Joe is right about his hunch of being similar to GHD3 (12.3" here), right now is what I'm seeing for FWA: Yeah he was talking about the same area being impacted not the amounts seen. This will likely be lower as it looks most of the QPF will fall in warm sector of this system and the deformation band of this will move through fairly quickly vs the last storm which was very long duration. But that's only if GFS is right. Latest euro just has some minor anafrontal wintry precip and no real wrapped up deformation band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Placement, not potential* . I knew what you was referring to, I am just pointing out that it will probably be a mostly rain event here before flipping to some mixed crap and then finishing with a little of good stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 At least unlike last time (GHD3) the pattern doesn't look hopeless for the 10-15 days following it. That made missing that event even worse than it was lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 There's still 108 hours left on this one. Plenty of time for things to change for better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Curious/trying to learn a little bit. Both the GFS/Euro seem to be trending slower/deeper with the northern stream piece of energy. What impact does that potentially have? Favor a better chance of phasing, thus a stronger (possibly negative tilt system)? Or something else? Or am I completely not looking at this correctly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 53 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Definitely not us. We are not normal. Normal people still rely on the 6 o'clock news... I think normal people get their weather from an app on their phone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Curious/trying to learn a little bit. Both the GFS/Euro seem to be trending slower/deeper with the northern stream piece of energy. What impact does that potentially have? Favor a better chance of phasing, thus a stronger (possibly negative tilt system)? Or something else? Or am I completely not looking at this correctly? It would have a negative impact in terms of potential, and is about one of three reasons why there’s been a shift south/weaker overall in guidance the past day or two.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It would have a negative impact in terms of potential, and is about one of three reasons why there’s been a shift south/weaker overall in guidance the past day or two. . Did I get the northern stream energy right and the fact that it's trending slower/deeper? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Nelson said: Did I get the northern stream energy right and the fact that it's trending slower/deeper? I think the southwestern upper low being slower to eject is also part of the problem. The models always struggle if there is not a major upstream event over the pacific to force it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, frostfern said: I think the southwestern upper low being slower to eject is also part of the problem. The models always struggle if there is not a major upstream event over the pacific to force it out. Models also tend to be too slow to eject upper lows out of the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 Did I get the northern stream energy right and the fact that it's trending slower/deeper?Correct, the northern wave rotating around the PV in Canada has trended slower/south/a bit more amped.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 18 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Models also tend to be too slow to eject upper lows out of the SW I see earlier runs have a small shortwave diving down from BC into the rear of the cutoff. The major southern stream low kicks off when it rounds the base. Later runs that's completely gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 59 minutes ago, Snownado said: I think normal people get their weather from an app on their phone. Many such apps are distributed by local TV stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eureka22 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 39 minutes ago, Snownado said: I think normal people get their weather from an app on their phone. I think that's partly right, the other part is from the social media apps on their phone. Someone sees a 216 hour euro map on Facebook and then sends it to their friends and it keeps getting shared and then everyone bombards the local TV mets pages with, "OMG we're gonna get buried why aren't you warning us about this?" I've noticed for both GHD3 and this upcoming system they're trying to temper the panic. They acknowledge that there may be a storm next week and here's what they know and what they don't know. Keep up with future forecasts but don't set your hair on fire just yet. TWC doesn't help when they show the GFS or Euro snowfall map five days out. There are no numbers but we know the what the color table is, you aren't helping. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: Looks like another strung out positively tilted turd incoming. Persistent trends die hard. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Why is it so hard to get a nice phased system in the Midwest these days? Always seems to trend to strung out pos. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Why is it so hard to get a nice phased system in the Midwest these days? Always seems to trend to strung out pos. Position of the Hudson Bay Low. Will always suppress/shear. It's king in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Position of the Hudson Bay Low. Will always suppress/shear. It's king in this pattern. And what pattern is that, exactly? And what combination of teleconnections will it take to change that? Seems no matter what, +/- ENSO, PDO, NAO, AO etc the result is the same for years on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 23 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Why is it so hard to get a nice phased system in the Midwest these days? Always seems to trend to strung out pos. ILX sounded the alarm 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Places in WI that were getting >12" for 5, 6 runs straight as of yesterday's 12Z GFS are now getting <3" on today's 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: ILX sounded the alarm Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 lotta rain on 18z GFS with a few inches on the backside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Here's the time period where things look meh. 18z gfs not overly impressive. But still many days out and the energy still way out by Alaska. Still plenty can change for the better or worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 24 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Here's the time period where things look meh. 18z gfs not overly impressive. But still many days out and the energy still way out by Alaska. Still plenty can change for the better or worse. Interesting thought. Maybe it looking not so hot at this point isn't so bad since it keeps expectations in check. Hopefully we can get some favorable ticks in the right direction even if it doesn't end up being a big storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 0z gfs back to being more amped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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