WeatherMonger Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 38 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Euro still being a stubborn mule and won't budge. Here's to hoping hi res guidance is right for a change. Your 15Z SREF Plume bumped up a tad. Still over 8" and less than a half an inch difference from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Yeah shreks swamp here. Frozen just a 1/3 inch below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 51 minutes ago, Baum said: so the RAP is right. But Joe said no snow. Poor Joe. Can’t win ‘em all 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 But Joe said no snow. Poor Joe. Can’t win ‘em all you need to work on your hits.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: You win on that one brother lmao. Looks like we need to get the ice skates out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: You win on that one brother lmao. Looks like we need to get the ice skates out I'd show MBY but it is actually a lake so of course it looks like a lake ... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Fairly good model consensus on 6-10" for the GTA with 401 bullseye 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toro99 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Patiently waiting for the board to explode as the massive shifts NW begin, like the good old days. Sorry, this should have gone in the banter thread.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 IWX hoists warnings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said: Yeah, I agree. Rain-to-snow events always make me shy away from the higher end numbers. 6-8" seems like a high probability. I agree. We have good model consensus now so 15-25cm (6-10") seems like a high probability. Was looking at the soundings and there's a lot of impressive lift too. I wouldn't rule out seeing 1-3"/hr rates for a couple hours Thursday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chasestormz39 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Both 18z HRRR and NAM ticked a bit SE to come in line with almost an identical GHDIII solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Can't get a better track than the 18z nam for dtw. I just wish this thing would slow down but i guess if it did, and went neg tilt, it'd prob be congrats madison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 EC has hoisted winter storm warnings for SW ON, extending from Windsor-Sarnia-London-St Thomas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, blizzardof96 said: EC has hoisted winter storm warnings for SW ON, extending from Windsor-Sarnia-London-St Thomas Dtw last to the party as always lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, blizzardof96 said: EC has hoisted winter storm warnings for SW ON, extending from Windsor-Sarnia-London-St Thomas Interesting. Looks like they're going to do this piecemeal. Seems like a watch is at least warranted NE of that zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Uh oh... 18z NAM more snowy around northern IL overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Interesting. Looks like they're going to do this piecemeal. Seems like a watch is at least warranted NE of that zone. Agreed. I think they'll either issue WSWs or snowfall warnings for areas further east into GTA. Probably coming out this afternoon or into tonight. They are always hard to predict though, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snohio Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Looks like the Cleveland office isn't buying the models showing bigger snow accumulations for the Toledo area. They are going with a winter weather advisory for 1-3 inches and some ice. Quote WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations of 1 to 3 inches and ice accumulations of around one tenth of an inch. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Ohio. * WHEN...From 1 PM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Precipitation will begin as rain early Thursday afternoon, changing over to freezing rain, sleet, and then snow by late Thursday evening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 18z NAM would make up for the massive bust of GHD3 here locally. But on my bingo card I can now check off a overly amped NAM run with massive snow totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 18z 3kNAM big hit for GTA with amounts near 10". Low tracks ~990mb through Erie, PA always seem to get it done around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said: 18z 3kNAM big hit for GTA with amounts near 10". Low tracks ~990mb through Erie, PA always seem to get it done around here. Ill be threading the needle here in Northern Haldimand up by Hamilton regarding heavy snow. Though Ill be following the Grand River closely with the rainfall and snow melt. EC has me in the rainfall warning. Could/should be in rainfall warning with a winter weather travel advisory by tomorrow morning I think 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 30 minutes ago, Toro99 said: 31 minutes ago, Toro99 said: Patiently waiting for the board to explode as the massive shifts NW begin, like the good old days. Sorry, this should have gone in the banter thread.... NW trends aren't really a thing any more. Now it's eveey storm trends SE or to a strung out POS the closer to onset. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Definitely a run for Detroit on the 18z NAM. I'd give it a 2% chance of verifying though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 18z NAM easy toss as it brings areas NW of Chicago 3-5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 18 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Interesting. Looks like they're going to do this piecemeal. Seems like a watch is at least warranted NE of that zone. Something that popped into my head that is kind of interesting. My first memory of posting on this forum was with the Feb 7/8 storm in 2013. Crazy to think that it's been over 9 since since then and that we still interact from time to time on this forum. Time flies. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 IWX warnings paint the bullseye of 6-10 inches about a row of counties south of me. Still puts me in 5-9. 40 mph wind gusts. Let's go. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 May go boating imby 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, Powerball said: Definitely a run for Detroit on the 18z NAM. I'd give it a 2% chance of verifying though. Yeah that’s a dream. Snow rates would have to be 2” an hour at least. That would bring a lot of chaos around here too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Not quite sure why they have little impacts from Fort Wayne up through DTW. Based off everything I’d say Major impacts especially in the Detroit metro with it being rush hour and later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Not quite sure why they have little impacts from Fort Wayne up through DTW. Based off everything I’d say Major impacts especially in the Detroit metro with it being rush hour and later Obviously they are not expecting much if any accumulating snow in Ft Wayne. Otherwise the impact would be much higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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