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Feb 16-17th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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1 hour ago, King James said:

Have a feeling this one is going to be pretty rough for my area. Backyard is already flooded and a mess and I still have drifts all over. Road I live on had water on it all week and caution signs were out. Roads won’t be right until after the weekend I bet 

Really think LOT needs to expand the flood watch into our area.  If anything there's better qpf progged here tonight than in the current flood watch area.

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5 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

Global guidance led the way in this one. Selling the American models and going 4-6” final for MBY. Fits right inside LOT’s forecast for IKK.

Higher

I actually feel fairly confident in pulling 6" here, especially with a little contribution from the lake.  And I don't really care much about what the 12z Euro comes in with haha.  How much over 6", I don't know. 

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31 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Feeling more confident with 6-8" for the GTA with this event. Latest guidance has shifted the freezing rain/ice pellet risk further south towards Hamilton/Niagara but some uncertainty still remains. The cold high in Northern Ontario could help too. 

Yeah, I agree.  Rain-to-snow events always make me shy away from the higher end numbers.  6-8" seems like a high probability.

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40 minutes ago, Lightning said:

Oh yeah.  If sunny it would be going very quickly!!! 

Pretty standard though for this area that the snow pack get nearly wiped out before the changeover occurs with these type of systems.    

 I never want snow to melt but in the circumstances of this case I wish it would just continue to go because I want as little standing water as possible for the freeze up before the snow starts lol.

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10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

 I never want snow to melt but in the circumstances of this case I wish it would just continue to go because I want as little standing water as possible for the freeze up before the snow starts lol.

Its just difficult to get a good snow on top of an already solid 6+ snow depth. Either it all has to melt before or it just freezes into a glacier and we dont get anymore snow after that lol. 

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22 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Higher

I actually feel fairly confident in pulling 6" here, especially with a little contribution from the lake.  And I don't really care much about what the 12z Euro comes in with haha.  How much over 6", I don't know. 

Lol, good luck. But not basing it solely off the Euro. Taking all them into consideration, sans the GFS and NAM, leads me to my 4-6”. In some cases, that may be too high. :lol:

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7 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

Its just difficult to get a good snow on top of an already solid 6+ snow depth. Either it all has to melt before or it just freezes into a glacier and we dont get anymore snow after that lol. 

 That's what was so amazing about 2013 14. I mean don't get me wrong we still get snow on top of snow many times but it's usually a different ball game to get snow on top of deep snow.

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8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The new LOT aviation disco addresses the potential burst of snow tomorrow morning.

Here it is for anyone too lazy to go read it :D

 

.AVIATION...
For the 18Z TAFs...

Numerous aviation weather concerns during the upcoming TAF period
including:

* Strong and gusty SSW winds this afternoon but easing a bit with
  time

* Expanding -SHRA this afternoon and evening, IFR vsbys expected
  this evening

* FROPA with a north to northeast wind shift late this evening

* Rain transitioning to a brief wintry mix and eventually all snow
  tonight and Thursday morning. Developing potential INVOF the
  Chicago-area sites for a brief burst of heavier snow roughly
  9-13z.

* Notable break in precipitation chances Thursday morning with the
  next round of snow developing through the afternoon. IFR/LIFR
  vsbys anticipated.

Gusty south-southwesterly winds generally from a 210 to 220
direction will continue this afternoon but will be gradually
easing with time. Showers will expand in coverage through the late
afternoon hours and will become widespread this evening. Vsbys
will likely drop into IFR for a time this evening.

Colder air will push into the region in the wake a cold front
which will bring a north and north-northeast wind shift to the
terminals after 03-04z or so. Profiles will begin to support a
wintry mix at RFD first as early as about 04-05z, and then into
the Chicago-area sites a few hours later. It appears the window
for FZRA and PL may be fairly brief, and have continued to reflect
these within quick TEMPO groups. Snow is expected to become the
dominant p-type after about 07z at RFD, and 09/10z at the
Chicago-area terminals.

There is a developing signal in model guidance that could support
a brief period of heavy snowfall, mainly INVOF DPA, ORD, and MDW
very early Thursday morning. Confidence was not high enough to
TEMPO LIFR vsbys at this time, but did coordinate a PROB30 mention
for 3/4SM snow between 9 and 13z to account for this potential.

Thereafter, snow is expected to gradually push south and east of
the terminals, likely ending entirely through mid-morning at all
sites (perhaps lightly snowing through the morning at GYY). The
next system pushes in rapidly through Thursday afternoon. There is
still some uncertainty regarding the northwestern terminus of the
heavier snow potential with this next system, but confidence was
high enough to prevail IFR and LIFR vsbys at ORD and MDW,
respectively. TEMPOs have been added to highlight a window
supporting heavy snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour.
Vsbys to 1/4 sm on a temporary basis are possible.

While snow to liquid ratios will start on the wetter side near 10:1
as snow starts late Thursday morning/early afternoon, these are
expected to increase to above 15:1 through Thursday afternoon.
Combined with strong gusty north winds (gusting potentially above
30 kts), BLSN appears probable and a mention has been added to the
18z TAFs.

Carlaw
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