nwohweather Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, Snohio said: This thing might actually give us some snow in the Toledo area. I want wasn't expecting that. I like 3-6" north of the Maumee River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 hour ago, King James said: Have a feeling this one is going to be pretty rough for my area. Backyard is already flooded and a mess and I still have drifts all over. Road I live on had water on it all week and caution signs were out. Roads won’t be right until after the weekend I bet Really think LOT needs to expand the flood watch into our area. If anything there's better qpf progged here tonight than in the current flood watch area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 46 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: has 0% chance of verifying around Chicago good luck further east. Once again, problems already show up earlier on in the run with unrealistic totals in N IL by early tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Once again, problems already show up earlier on in the run with unrealistic totals in N IL by early tomorrow morning. I'm good cutting totals in half. not greedy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Global guidance led the way in this one. Selling the American models and going 4-6” final for MBY. Fits right inside LOT’s forecast for IKK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Global guidance led the way in this one. Selling the American models and going 4-6” final for MBY. Fits right inside LOT’s forecast for IKK. Higher I actually feel fairly confident in pulling 6" here, especially with a little contribution from the lake. And I don't really care much about what the 12z Euro comes in with haha. How much over 6", I don't know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Ready to be saved in nowcasting time NW bump for the win 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 31 minutes ago, Snowstorms said: Feeling more confident with 6-8" for the GTA with this event. Latest guidance has shifted the freezing rain/ice pellet risk further south towards Hamilton/Niagara but some uncertainty still remains. The cold high in Northern Ontario could help too. Yeah, I agree. Rain-to-snow events always make me shy away from the higher end numbers. 6-8" seems like a high probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 40 minutes ago, Lightning said: Oh yeah. If sunny it would be going very quickly!!! Pretty standard though for this area that the snow pack get nearly wiped out before the changeover occurs with these type of systems. I never want snow to melt but in the circumstances of this case I wish it would just continue to go because I want as little standing water as possible for the freeze up before the snow starts lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 There does appear to be a several hour break between the rain and the wintry aspect of the system here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: There does appear to be a several hour break between the rain and the wintry aspect of the system here Yeah, looking the same way here. Except for the lack of snow with wave 1, seems pretty similar to Feb 2-3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: I never want snow to melt but in the circumstances of this case I wish it would just continue to go because I want as little standing water as possible for the freeze up before the snow starts lol. Its just difficult to get a good snow on top of an already solid 6+ snow depth. Either it all has to melt before or it just freezes into a glacier and we dont get anymore snow after that lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 37 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Once again, problems already show up earlier on in the run with unrealistic totals in N IL by early tomorrow morning. you mean ALEK is not goin to get 7 inches overnite? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Upgraded to WSWarning with mid morning update. 3-5" snow and up to 2 tenths of an inch of ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Higher I actually feel fairly confident in pulling 6" here, especially with a little contribution from the lake. And I don't really care much about what the 12z Euro comes in with haha. How much over 6", I don't know. Lol, good luck. But not basing it solely off the Euro. Taking all them into consideration, sans the GFS and NAM, leads me to my 4-6”. In some cases, that may be too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: Its just difficult to get a good snow on top of an already solid 6+ snow depth. Either it all has to melt before or it just freezes into a glacier and we dont get anymore snow after that lol. That's what was so amazing about 2013 14. I mean don't get me wrong we still get snow on top of snow many times but it's usually a different ball game to get snow on top of deep snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 The new LOT aviation disco addresses the potential burst of snow tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The new LOT aviation disco addresses the potential burst of snow tomorrow morning. Here it is for anyone too lazy to go read it .AVIATION... For the 18Z TAFs... Numerous aviation weather concerns during the upcoming TAF period including: * Strong and gusty SSW winds this afternoon but easing a bit with time * Expanding -SHRA this afternoon and evening, IFR vsbys expected this evening * FROPA with a north to northeast wind shift late this evening * Rain transitioning to a brief wintry mix and eventually all snow tonight and Thursday morning. Developing potential INVOF the Chicago-area sites for a brief burst of heavier snow roughly 9-13z. * Notable break in precipitation chances Thursday morning with the next round of snow developing through the afternoon. IFR/LIFR vsbys anticipated. Gusty south-southwesterly winds generally from a 210 to 220 direction will continue this afternoon but will be gradually easing with time. Showers will expand in coverage through the late afternoon hours and will become widespread this evening. Vsbys will likely drop into IFR for a time this evening. Colder air will push into the region in the wake a cold front which will bring a north and north-northeast wind shift to the terminals after 03-04z or so. Profiles will begin to support a wintry mix at RFD first as early as about 04-05z, and then into the Chicago-area sites a few hours later. It appears the window for FZRA and PL may be fairly brief, and have continued to reflect these within quick TEMPO groups. Snow is expected to become the dominant p-type after about 07z at RFD, and 09/10z at the Chicago-area terminals. There is a developing signal in model guidance that could support a brief period of heavy snowfall, mainly INVOF DPA, ORD, and MDW very early Thursday morning. Confidence was not high enough to TEMPO LIFR vsbys at this time, but did coordinate a PROB30 mention for 3/4SM snow between 9 and 13z to account for this potential. Thereafter, snow is expected to gradually push south and east of the terminals, likely ending entirely through mid-morning at all sites (perhaps lightly snowing through the morning at GYY). The next system pushes in rapidly through Thursday afternoon. There is still some uncertainty regarding the northwestern terminus of the heavier snow potential with this next system, but confidence was high enough to prevail IFR and LIFR vsbys at ORD and MDW, respectively. TEMPOs have been added to highlight a window supporting heavy snowfall rates in excess of 1 inch per hour. Vsbys to 1/4 sm on a temporary basis are possible. While snow to liquid ratios will start on the wetter side near 10:1 as snow starts late Thursday morning/early afternoon, these are expected to increase to above 15:1 through Thursday afternoon. Combined with strong gusty north winds (gusting potentially above 30 kts), BLSN appears probable and a mention has been added to the 18z TAFs. Carlaw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Went home quick to get something and noticed my backyard is an icy, water logged mess. This is before a single drop of rain has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 29 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The new LOT aviation disco addresses the potential burst of snow tomorrow morning. so the RAP is right. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King James Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Looking forward to some heavy snow and high winds during the day time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Euro still being a stubborn mule and won't budge. Here's to hoping hi res guidance is right for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, Baum said: so the RAP is right. Probably, if you cut the amounts by about 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Probably, if you cut the amounts by about 70% I think that gets me to my hope for 4". So I'm on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 27 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Went home quick to get something and noticed my backyard is an icy, water logged mess. This is before a single drop of rain has fallen. Same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Anyone have 12Z Euro data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Frog Town said: Anyone have 12Z Euro data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Frog Town said: Anyone have 12Z Euro data? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Maybe a little LE there in Toledo with that little notch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Yeah shreks swamp here. Frozen just a 1/3 inch below 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now