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Feb 16-17th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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41 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said:

Obviously it's an outlier but the HRRR verbatim would meet blizzard warning criteria across northeast IL and northwest IN late Thursday afternoon into evening. 

This will come off as an imby weenie post, but think some of the worst conditions could be somewhere nearby where there is an overlap between the higher snow amounts and some enhanced gustiness downwind of Lake Michigan.

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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

This will come off as an imby weenie post, but think some of the worst conditions could be somewhere nearby where there is an overlap between the higher snow amounts and some enhanced gustiness downwind of Lake Michigan.

Nah I agree and that lines up with where the HRRR has some of the stronger gusts 

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22 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

How much snow is on the ground there because I'm kind of confused why there's a flood watch.

The depth is 3 to 4" but you have to realize the water content in it is a lot.  I took this picture on Saturday after the last thaw but before the fresh snow on Sunday. The frost depth is about 2 feet so the ground is frozen solid.  Huge water Laden ice snowbanks everywhere too. There's really no water where for the water to run off.

FB_IMG_1644981115377.jpg

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11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

The depth is 3 to 4" but you have to realize the water content in it is a lot.  I took this picture on Saturday after the last thaw but before the fresh snow on Sunday. The frost depth is about 2 feet so the ground is frozen solid.  Huge water Laden ice snowbanks everywhere too. There's really no water where for the water to run off.

FB_IMG_1644981115377.jpg

And it can get bad (from March '07)

XRapg7HndZRAcKtvVujzl8S_aodRpKG6FsEcusT8ELFTnoj7QtbaJQP1_rAPGidT-J5AzfuhQVpkKZD6epa6fLEpk6kOKbWR9eOIXrveRiGgbMEuimWB__RNyVMc0BXgz5ImZZ4PfNOC6mYZL60RJzeFNwF0n_2f_Qlf_jgFaysgNnAeeK7QB73Iyb9d240ihzh3Lt6W2vkaSzutC7WEg5b1ZEPr-R_h5zC_PnIGIVzSmy4HFgb3RTuBZTBWqxxxJEP3cU_IUHyb31X_hBAY1oWfcTFSprbqmEzEYUO_1YLLInA1-5WMw4Wxop8BVI0TKByiiYUpOReEjudMZ6CQ_GmvQrA3Jn1cxBGf32o37xWCFi24fCreSQpSY9lQs4OjejPw1p6rTCmTJ8ZPdd_zasPkSFCHdehB56Ot7f92SMAdHLzp2gq6lTHVU8FbWgsMJcSIvBazlM2eqADTSYtcPjAoewrmcdaQ_jSNHZ75yne0xalpiyByexoVCg_B1gnOtayoosob98p6ivwcxguXLEyay28LtVlAVcJZrakSB-2Z3tCn5yRYig4I2kXQIBaFGdB4sFmmfYwuoTOJQmq7zBR2xxKlrWUvk64nCK8IJqYtY6MCiiNL9swCDQhE-ucMvKfqz4pjscv3JhwxaNXl2wbn7EpPuCJn4xcVPNLWaHmwhB4w2WAAXOS-ktkO0AOOBOC7Eacg--aI2L_PL4SK1FzgCg=w1600-h1200-no?authuser=0

yvJYxuVcgBXNGfAE9vY1t3Y-CwDYuaqZg-mOY_wSkiOrI_0nNiJih4rIK2xfQbM0G3QkIJ_-DexMKcQdbtUAIV_oS_7v-mIdPtxzLM1xamZ07TEzkzhwxY5psCuKVugzXGRplb4yZLgEpn6dzMV0b-fyyRy0cKeA-qndztJT5nITWRPVxl1VhgPGEJP9vDzDw-XIKTH0W5TFgmvZr7uoI0OJotxOq5eIb-r29OF9aGbzW_ImVpxzhdwU5D8I7V2d6wC2na2KuN4s5_ZKSiuVZngxwPBkJzu5ooqtbuApONybx2vOktbdSA8xvPq_9pVukZ9cYdCK73h2vEfEmuVTvTDPMzscaY98CR8t0Y97P6ly0A41ReVr73_REGmAPEunLhrR4zpi3TiHQ9qL5rHaPlANheMLooFoccXLjS-XEIk5FNmMBTscuIroS7IiQ7FPXCuBF4EvKrBzvpbEIa_Op7LvfVAfCGceMRubeX_zk4kRhYHJe_Oa0qEfzuMtL8YTSgclRLjFy78MxT_ira75TAVycRkhfKNHjdw5S1AS7DsONPBJ37P23N5itydJSAsRUZoAkvoykDjnsEyhRzcb8AVGAiBnRp1hGm-d2ZDMKWpINYPziWlfkvbACvI5P2oqt0xWmtHe8gmNla4oUlwthtgu6jEDeNwcw3gudEmhxNLaf9YUEsCF9FSiPM5A-wWH0kHKuMrPF-dxNw5dj70GyD_EjQ=w1600-h1200-no?authuser=0

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2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

So here's the million dollar question. Will the nam/gfs/hrrr/rap camps be right with stronger and more nw or will weaker and se euro prevail? It does have support from other foreign guidance. I'm honestly not sure what to think. 

I'll let you know sometime Thursday night into Friday morning, hold tight

 

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1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said:

So here's the million dollar question. Will the nam/gfs/hrrr/rap camps be right with stronger and more nw or will weaker and se euro prevail? It does have support from other foreign guidance. I'm honestly not sure what to think. 

For some reason I foresee an overachieving sleet storm for us

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4 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

50F and heavy rain though will cause significant run off  so this is starting to look interesting for flooding in Grand River area. Possible ice storm/snow storm after which at this point I hope it stays rain as I want nothing to do with an ice storm. 

 

Thinking with the trends maybe EC gets arm twisted into a watch. Even down in your hood and Niagara, the "warmer" NCEP solutions look like a decent ice storm.

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9 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

For some reason I foresee an overachieving sleet storm for us

I think to start yes. But column will really be rapidly cooling by afternoon which should push warm nose south and east. HRRR mixes it out pretty quick in the morning. How long that transition takes will be critical to snow amounts.

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2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Thinking with the trends maybe EC gets arm twisted into a watch. Even down in your hood and Niagara, the "warmer" NCEP solutions look like a decent ice storm.

You guys may get a good-great snowstorm out of this. Ill be keeping an eye though on Don River and other creeks and rivers. Buffalo mentioned 2-4" of water locked up in the snowpack and checking out the interactive snow maps on NOAA you can see most of the GTA has 1-2" with pockets of 2-4" 

The temperature plus heavy rain early Thursday should get rid of a lot and cause significant run off. 

 

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10 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Thinking with the trends maybe EC gets arm twisted into a watch. Even down in your hood and Niagara, the "warmer" NCEP solutions look like a decent ice storm.

It seems to be looking more like snow than freezing rain for Toronto. Niagara might be where the freezing rain is, I'm thinking. 

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