nwohweather Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 For NW Ohio I’m going 3-6” north of US 24 and 1-3” of slop south of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 If anything the NAM is slightly stronger with the srn stream ejecting wave by 18z Thursday but the trof coming across the Dakotas/upper lakes is a bit tad further SE this run; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 0z NAM looks similar to 18z run.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z NAM looks similar to 18z run. . Yeah sfc low even a smidge stronger by 21z Thursday compared to previous run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 FV3 southeast of 12z in terms of the band of precip tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 From a local Chi metro standpoint, the NAM bumped NW with totals in that area compared to the 18z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Thundersnow12 said: From a local Chi metro standpoint, the NAM bumped NW with totals in that area compared to the 18z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 41 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Obviously it's an outlier but the HRRR verbatim would meet blizzard warning criteria across northeast IL and northwest IN late Thursday afternoon into evening. This will come off as an imby weenie post, but think some of the worst conditions could be somewhere nearby where there is an overlap between the higher snow amounts and some enhanced gustiness downwind of Lake Michigan. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: This will come off as an imby weenie post, but think some of the worst conditions could be somewhere nearby where there is an overlap between the higher snow amounts and some enhanced gustiness downwind of Lake Michigan. Nah I agree and that lines up with where the HRRR has some of the stronger gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Should be fun once all that water freezes and snow is whipping around everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 5 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Should be fun once all that water freezes and snow is whipping around everywhere How much snow is on the ground there because I'm kind of confused why there's a flood watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, Stevo6899 said: How much snow is on the ground there because I'm kind of confused why there's a flood watch. Frozen ground and about 4 where the sun did not hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said: How much snow is on the ground there because I'm kind of confused why there's a flood watch. Frozen ground leading to runoff is one of the issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Some of this model output is almost hard to believe. About an inch of rain and a little ice/sleet followed by a foot+ of snow and arguably a blizzard on both NAMs and the HRRR around here. But still have many models/runs left to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 22 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: How much snow is on the ground there because I'm kind of confused why there's a flood watch. The depth is 3 to 4" but you have to realize the water content in it is a lot. I took this picture on Saturday after the last thaw but before the fresh snow on Sunday. The frost depth is about 2 feet so the ground is frozen solid. Huge water Laden ice snowbanks everywhere too. There's really no water where for the water to run off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 0z RGEM holds main axis, but did expand precip NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 11 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: The depth is 3 to 4" but you have to realize the water content in it is a lot. I took this picture on Saturday after the last thaw but before the fresh snow on Sunday. The frost depth is about 2 feet so the ground is frozen solid. Huge water Laden ice snowbanks everywhere too. There's really no water where for the water to run off. And it can get bad (from March '07) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Updated WSW from LOT mentioned an axis of higher totals possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z RGEM holds main axis, but did expand precip NW. Really nails the city with the rain tomorrow into early Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 So here's the million dollar question. Will the nam/gfs/hrrr/rap camps be right with stronger and more nw or will weaker and se euro prevail? It does have support from other foreign guidance. I'm honestly not sure what to think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: So here's the million dollar question. Will the nam/gfs/hrrr/rap camps be right with stronger and more nw or will weaker and se euro prevail? It does have support from other foreign guidance. I'm honestly not sure what to think. I'll let you know sometime Thursday night into Friday morning, hold tight 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 50F and heavy rain though will cause significant run off so this is starting to look interesting for flooding in Grand River area. Possible ice storm/snow storm after which at this point I hope it stays rain as I want nothing to do with an ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
janetjanet998 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: So here's the million dollar question. Will the nam/gfs/hrrr/rap camps be right with stronger and more nw or will weaker and se euro prevail? It does have support from other foreign guidance. I'm honestly not sure what to think. For some reason I foresee an overachieving sleet storm for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: 50F and heavy rain though will cause significant run off so this is starting to look interesting for flooding in Grand River area. Possible ice storm/snow storm after which at this point I hope it stays rain as I want nothing to do with an ice storm. Thinking with the trends maybe EC gets arm twisted into a watch. Even down in your hood and Niagara, the "warmer" NCEP solutions look like a decent ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 9 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said: For some reason I foresee an overachieving sleet storm for us I think to start yes. But column will really be rapidly cooling by afternoon which should push warm nose south and east. HRRR mixes it out pretty quick in the morning. How long that transition takes will be critical to snow amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 0z GFS bumping SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Thinking with the trends maybe EC gets arm twisted into a watch. Even down in your hood and Niagara, the "warmer" NCEP solutions look like a decent ice storm. You guys may get a good-great snowstorm out of this. Ill be keeping an eye though on Don River and other creeks and rivers. Buffalo mentioned 2-4" of water locked up in the snowpack and checking out the interactive snow maps on NOAA you can see most of the GTA has 1-2" with pockets of 2-4" The temperature plus heavy rain early Thursday should get rid of a lot and cause significant run off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 10 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Thinking with the trends maybe EC gets arm twisted into a watch. Even down in your hood and Niagara, the "warmer" NCEP solutions look like a decent ice storm. It seems to be looking more like snow than freezing rain for Toronto. Niagara might be where the freezing rain is, I'm thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS bumping SE. Actually retains good totals in Chi metro though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Just now, Hoosier said: Actually retains good totals in Chi metro though. That early stuff is probably a mirage so toss that but yeah still a respectable hit across the metro. Better off using 12hr totals to get rid of that weird initial fake snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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