WeatherMonger Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Got the link? Still have this bookmarked https://ruc.noaa.gov/ruc/RUC/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Wonder if EC puts up winter storm watches tomorrow. Tough but potentially high impact event for them to forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve23guy Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Can a brother get some dang snow in Beloit WI.. my god man 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 18z Euro @ 24 hours 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: 1-3 isnt considered an event imo. An event is 3+ and theres only been these last 2 worth getting excited about and the last one was a turd compared to what it couldve been. We'll see about this one. Rain to snow events are always tricky as far as accumulations. Sometimes it's about impact. Look at all the car pile ups on Sunday in the whiteouts. This storm should have a high impact regardless due to the icy conditions. Snow amounts however are a huge unknown so they might as well just forecast 1 to 8" and see what happens. I wish I could avoid looking at computer models but i can't help myself. Weather does what it wants. Like I said a few weeks ago, the day I enjoy an overperforming 3" snowfall more than I do an underperforming 9" snowfall is the day I quit following the weather and just turn to following computers. And that's not happening. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Need the NGM model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said: Wonder if EC puts up winter storm watches tomorrow. Tough but potentially high impact event for them to forecast Noticed over the last decade or so EC only issues a WSW for exceptional snow storms (or maybe ice storms). More likely SWS to warnings/advisories for this event. 3km NAM is pretty nuts but overall I think the max band is 6-10". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 18z Euro going SE again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro going SE again. Main wave is handled differently. It started off SE for western sub-forum, then corrects a bit NW for eastern sub-forum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z Euro going SE again. Would you believe it if I said orientation change? (Actually) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 QCA under a winter storm watch but 1-2" looks like it'd be a victory at this point. Epic GFS fail yet again lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 19 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Noticed over the last decade or so EC only issues a WSW for exceptional snow storms (or maybe ice storms). More likely SWS to warnings/advisories for this event. 3km NAM is pretty nuts but overall I think the max band is 6-10". That's DTX. Very gunshy on watches and warnings but they'll issue an advisory all day. Sometimes to where I think it makes the public complacent. Some of their advisories I feel are not even needed, a special weather statement would suffice, and other advisories should be warnings and are often upgraded midway through the storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: That's DTX. Very gunshy on watches and warnings but they'll issue an advisory all day. Sometimes to where I think it makes the public complacent. Some of their advisories I feel are not even needed, a special weather statement would suffice, and other advisories should be warnings and are often upgraded midway through the storm lol. With respect to watches, it was bad even when I was growing up. A watch would get hoisted and the storm never materialized, and people would have a bitchfest (friends, family, media) about how wrong the weather people were. The word "watch" connoting a slim probability rather than a certainty never seemed to translate to most folks; they were instead dazzled with the "winter storm" part of the phrase. And now with social media I believe that's gotten much worse, to the point where EC has for the most part shelved it. Headlines with "Special weather" and "winter weather"(rather than storm) I think give them a little more wiggle room re: public perception. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Slight bump in totals across the Chi metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 32 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Main wave is handled differently. It started off SE for western sub-forum, then corrects a bit NW for eastern sub-forum. personally think given the scenario it could be quite a bit underdone on precip. I think this situation has quite a bit going for it. As I say no science just a gut feeling from years of getting punched in it by models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 C'mon...some of us are eating. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 How does the GFS suck so bad especially after all the repeated upgrades in recent years including the much-touted "FV3 core"? Based on what I've seen on the tropical forums, it still sucks for TCs too but has flipped from showing too many fantasy storms to whiffing on genesis that do occur (although I do recall it still having a lot of phantom Carribbean/GOM cyclones last fall). Because severe weather events are so sensitive to details that usually evolve close-in (see: Derecho, Iowa) I don't even really bother looking at the globals for it anymore other than to say "there may be potential for something somewhere in this time-frame." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 1 minute ago, cyclone77 said: Epic first post bruh Coming in with a bang...or some sort of explosion. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 18z EPS mean. Bump SE and weaker.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 36 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said: How does the GFS suck so bad especially after all the repeated upgrades in recent years including the much-touted "FV3 core"? Based on what I've seen on the tropical forums, it still sucks for TCs too but has flipped from showing too many fantasy storms to whiffing on genesis that do occur (although I do recall it still having a lot of phantom Carribbean/GOM cyclones last fall). Because severe weather events are so sensitive to details that usually evolve close-in (see: Derecho, Iowa) I don't even really bother looking at the globals for it anymore other than to say "there may be potential for something somewhere in this time-frame." Like bruh, we're the USA and the Europeans do a better job of predicting our own weather. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 6 minutes ago, snowman33 said: Like bruh, we're the USA and the Europeans do a better job of predicting our own weather. 'MURICA!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Riding the hrrr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 0z HRRR is going to be NW of the 18z run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 16, 2022 Author Share Posted February 16, 2022 0z HRRR is going to be NW of the 18z run lol are you really surprised though.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 0z HRRR soundings has freezing rain when the column barely breaches 0C above 850 mb. Loss of ice? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 8 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: Riding the hrrr no choice but to 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 4 minutes ago, Baum said: no choice but to 2nd consecutive storm where RAP and HRRR are my only hope we all know how this will turnout with a solid 1-2 inches in Lake and McHenry county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Obviously it's an outlier but the HRRR verbatim would meet blizzard warning criteria across northeast IL and northwest IN late Thursday afternoon into evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 2nd consecutive storm where RAP and HRRR are my only hope we all know how this will turnout with a solid 1-2 inches in Lake and McHenry county Wait for the FV3 before making that call. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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