Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 There's our more amped RAP run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 and so it begins 18z GEFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 GFS ensembles south as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 19 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: Detroit Nws passing off winter storm watches off to the overnight. I agree that local stations around here downplaying but rightfully so. As I read into it more they did admit that amounts could be well underdone It's hilarious every time they are bullish (rare), the storm ends up underwhelming. Now watch this time they'll be conservative and we'll get over a foot. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Harry said: GFS ensembles south as well. Were reelin er in eh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: It's hilarious every time they are bullish (rare), the storm ends up underwhelming. Now watch this time they'll be conservative and we'll get over a foot. I know right. I’m praying for little ice don’t want those winds mixing with even moderate accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Just now, Stevo6899 said: It's hilarious every time they are bullish (rare), the storm ends up underwhelming. Now watch this time they'll be conservative and we'll get over a foot. Well the GFS has gone in that direction big time! Just now, Stevo6899 said: Were reelin er in eh? Yep. Me and Josh using the magnet powers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 21z RAP is wet and wild and has 0% chance of verifying with 3 inch of precip in Chicago. It is smoking what the GFS and NAM were smoking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 so if the euro bumps north to join the gfs's south jog to form a consensus which model actually caved? Which is what happend in the last event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: 21z RAP is wet and wild and has 0% chance of verifying with 3 inch of precip in Chicago. It is smoking what the GFS and NAM were smoking. I'm actually surprised that 10 minutes went by after my post about the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: 21z RAP is wet and wild and has 0% chance of verifying with 3 inch of precip in Chicago. It is smoking what the GFS and NAM were smoking. Damn right it is. Intoxicated on the job Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Baum said: so if the euro bumps north to join the gfs's south jog to form a consensus which model actually caved? Which is what happend in the last event. It means we will need a model update so we won't know the biases. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 I've decided to pre empt Chicago storm on the 18Z Euro and 00Z NAM. Euro bump NW and wetter. NAM is NW and stronger. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 "The RAP was good inside 51hrs". God NCEP blows 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: "The RAP was good inside 51hrs". God NCEP blows Has the RAP ever verified more than an hour out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 41 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 21z RAP is wet and wild and has 0% chance of verifying with 3 inch of precip in Chicago. It is smoking what the GFS and NAM were smoking. That run is unrealistic even early on in the storm. It already has several inches around Chicago by 12z Thursday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 RAP or bust. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That run is unrealistic even early on in the storm. It already has several inches around Chicago by 12z Thursday. worst model followed by GFS and NAM!!!! And we will have a juiced run of the HRRR as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 I remember when Hoosier found the developmental RUC (old name of the RAP for you young kids) that ran out to 36 hours or something. Him and thundersnow12 posted that sh*t constantly in every storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago WX said: I remember when Hoosier found the developmental RUC (old name of the RAP for you young kids) that ran out to 36 hours or something. Him and thundersnow12 posted that sh*t constantly in every storm. Got the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 LOT got the storm part of the afd out. Worth a read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Got the link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: I remember when Hoosier found the developmental RUC (old name of the RAP for you young kids) that ran out to 36 hours or something. Him and thundersnow12 posted that sh*t constantly in every storm. Hey, that did pretty well with GHD I lol, I still have those images saved somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 52 minutes ago, Harry said: Well the GFS has gone in that direction big time! Yep. Me and Josh using the magnet powers. We have actually had quite a few snow events this season that have overperformed, and most of the rest have performed as expected. Only the 1 big one was the one that really underperformed, and it had the most hype. This storm has a massive amount of uncertainty. Either way I don't see how it's not going to be a high impact event. You have frozen solid ground with snowcover that is going to be melting with heavy rain, then a transition to ice and snow and a major temp plummet to the single digits in the storms wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michaelmantis Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: LOT got the storm part of the afd out. Worth a read. Damn, there are times these AFD's are just awesome. I share them with friends/family and they just don't get them. This one was almost as good as Ricky's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: Damn, there are times these AFD's are just awesome. I share them with friends/family and they just don't get them. This one was almost as good as Ricky's. Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 7 minutes ago, michaelmantis said: Damn, there are times these AFD's are just awesome. I share them with friends/family and they just don't get them. This one was almost as good as Ricky's. Even got the B word thrown out as one scenario. One thing I'm wondering about is how they mention it being wet snow. I wonder how wet it will actually be. The relative warmth aloft will hurt ratios but I would think it would make it more of a dense snow but not necessarily wet. A denser type of snow should still be capable of blowing around quite a bit given the expected winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: We have actually had quite a few snow events this season that have overperformed, and most of the rest have performed as expected. Only the 1 big one was the one that really underperformed, and it had the most hype. This storm has a massive amount of uncertainty. Either way I don't see how it's not going to be a high impact event. You have frozen solid ground with snowcover that is going to be melting with heavy rain, then a transition to ice and snow and a major temp plummet to the single digits in the storms wake. 1-3 isnt considered an event imo. An event is 3+ and theres only been these last 2 worth getting excited about and the last one was a turd compared to what it couldve been. We'll see about this one. Rain to snow events are always tricky as far as accumulations. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Baum said: so if the euro bumps north to join the gfs's south jog to form a consensus which model actually caved? Which is what happend in the last event. Maybe they both caved into each other. People in the heart of the final snow band refer to it as a "consensus". Those left outside the band refer to it as a "cave." The GFS/NAM amped NW solution offered a more significant impact storm and seems to be more of a model fail since it failed in path and intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 23 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: worst model followed by GFS and NAM!!!! And we will have a juiced run of the HRRR as well. HRRR Nailed the lake effect snow IMBY last February and that means its the best always Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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