Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Natester said: NAM 12k and NAM 3k aren't budging. thier waiting to crap the bed within 6 hours of the event. why kill the suspense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 18z NAM looks like it’ll come south. Live look at the King Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: 18z NAM looks like it’ll come south. Live look at the King Wave less amped and sheared faster. South it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Not a big seasonal trends guy and each event is different but what a stinker of a seasonal trend lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 South it goes now. Prepare for slight adjustment northwest 12 hours before storm starts. You gotta love the classics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Not a big seasonal trends guy and each event is different but what a stinker of a seasonal trend lol There is much more than a seasonal trend going on. For over a year now, southside has been getting all the precip. If things don't change this spring, far N IL and S WI will be in big trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 18z NAM 3k says Hoosier gets sleetfest. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CANNOTDIVIDEBY0 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Ah yes, the worst case scenario for my drive to Peoria on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 All that's left to come south is the GFS but chances are that the GFS will be stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Natester said: 18z NAM 3k says Hoosier gets sleetfest. Thanks Nate. Quite a bit of snow too. In a general sense, always want to be aware of warm layers aloft taking longer to cool. And it's not necessarily apparent by looking at 850 mb temps as the warm nose is more like 750 mb in the sleet zone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 38 minutes ago, Baum said: thier waiting to crap the bed within 6 hours of the event. why kill the suspense. While predicted more damage inflicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 GRR punting watches to morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: GRR punting watches to morning In this case I can't say I blame them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 I'd imagine Watches will pop up tomorrow. Local mets in Toledo are definitely downplaying things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 LOT issued watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 LOT watch I-88 south. Snow amounts negligible, but combined with freezing rain and wind gets them to potential warning criteria. Pretty wild forecast. 50's and melt snow pack followed by heavy rain than freezing rain with 3-7" snow on top. Beats the duster days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 IWX issues watches. Pretty fun map. INZ003>005-MIZ077>079-160900- /O.NEW.KIWX.WS.A.0003.220217T1500Z-220218T0300Z/ La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI- Including the cities of Michigan City, La Porte, South Bend, Mishawaka, New Carlisle, Walkerton, Elkhart, Goshen, Nappanee, Niles, Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Fair Plain, Benton Heights, Buchanan, Paw Paw Lake, Dowagiac, Cassopolis, Edwardsburg, Marcellus, Sturgis, Three Rivers, White Pigeon, and Mendon 406 PM EST Tue Feb 15 2022 /306 PM CST Tue Feb 15 2022/ ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 4 to 7 inches and ice accumulations up to one tenth of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of northern Indiana and southwest Michigan. * WHEN...From Thursday morning through Thursday evening. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions Thursday afternoon and evening. The hazardous conditions will impact the evening commute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 18z RGEM bumped S/weaker.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 26 minutes ago, Baum said: LOT watch I-88 south. Snow amounts negligible, but combined with freezing rain and wind gets them to potential warning criteria. Pretty wild forecast. 50's and melt snow pack followed by heavy rain than freezing rain with 3-7" snow on top. Beats the duster days. I'm wondering if they will pull the flood watch a row or 2 north. It's gonna be a mess. Mentioned this before but my yard gets standing water with basically anything more than showers. I should time lapse it on Wednesday night/Thursday lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z RGEM bumped S/weaker. . almost time for the 18z GFS to give up the ghost and get inline 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Early thinking is 6" of snow here after the rain/pl transitions, and it will take longer than advertised. It always does. Last minute correction back to the NW could throw a monkey wrench into things. yet to be determined. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 18z GFS going to bump SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Clicking around on various WSW texts, it's basically 3-7" or 4-6" in the main band. Hopefully these numbers are playing it conservative due to the uncertainty in placement and will bump up in time. Would be a shame if that's all this managed to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 GFS still north of the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z GFS going to bump SE. And by a bit at that.. Just now, Natester said: GFS still north of the NAM. But south of prior runs and now alot closer to the others. Had a feeling it would cave. Not as far south as euro but alot closer then it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Detroit Nws passing off winter storm watches off to the overnight. I agree that local stations around here downplaying but rightfully so. As I read into it more they did admit that amounts could be well underdone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Last minute south/weaker trend… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Harry said: And by a bit at that.. But south of prior runs and now alot closer to the others. Had a feeling it would cave. Not as far south as euro but alot closer then it was. Still gotta think we will eventually get a north bump from the Euro, even if it's 25-50 miles. I refuse to believe that the NAM/GFS could have blown THAT badly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Still gotta think we will eventually get a north bump from the Euro, even if it's 25-50 miles. I refuse to believe that the NAM/GFS could have blown THAT badly Gfs and nam smoking with snoop dogg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 5 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Still gotta think we will eventually get a north bump from the Euro, even if it's 25-50 miles. I refuse to believe that the NAM/GFS could have blown THAT badly It did it with the last storm. Held onto those crazy high totals till about this time from the event. Look at GHD lll storm thread 2. But yeah it would be nice to see the euro bump north a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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