sbnwx85 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 And wow is it south of GFS and NAM. 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I have big news. The 15z RAP is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 57 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: Not meaningless, but not incredibly meaningful either. So much has to be taken into account when it comes to ratios - not just temperature. Wind also plays a role and I imagine will certainly play one this go around. I think there's even more factors. Southern stream synoptic events always have a fairly deep saturated isothermal layer below the DGZ while clippers have a very thin one. That isothermal layer seems to favor chunkier plates as opposed to spindly dendrites. They just don't form large aggregates the way pure dendrites do. You still get a lot of bigger aggregates mixed in within the heavier bands, but the abundance plates falling at the same time fills in the air gaps and lowers the ratios even so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, frostfern said: I would take that, but even GRR is now saying the GFS is overdone and going with a lower compromise forecast for the grids. They may have said that in afd but check out zones further Se of Grand Rapids. The highest totals are still up that way ( 3-5 up there vs 1-4 along I94 ) which basically follows the GFS line of thinking. Just that they are way to low across the board which is very typical of this office sadly. It amazes me how a number of them ( there is a couple of people there who is very good at this stuff ) have kept thier job for as long as they have. Ofcourse some of them do alot better with severe and other weather stuff vs winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, frostfern said: I think there's even more factors. Southern stream synoptic events always have a fairly deep saturated isothermal layer below the DGZ while clippers have a very thin one. That isothermal layer seems to favor chunkier plates as opposed to spindly dendrites. They just don't form large aggregates the way pure dendrites do. You still get a lot of bigger aggregates mixed in within the heavier bands, but the abundance plates falling at the same time fills in the air gaps and lowers the ratios even so. Yes, I did not mean to imply it was just temperature and wind by any means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Just now, McHenrySnow said: Yes, I did not mean to imply it was just temperature and wind by any means. I agree. I just find it fascinating. Wish I had studied it in graduate school but I got stuck doing tropical meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said: And wow is it south of GFS and NAM. It’s a bit south, but more wayyyy slower Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: It’s a bit south, but more wayyyy slower is this the short term model that showed LOT's NW burbs with a foot 18 hrs out in the last event? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Just now, Baum said: is this the short term model that showed LOT's NW burbs with a foot 18 hrs out in the last event? yes that and the HRRR!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Just now, Baum said: is this the short term model that showed LOT's NW burbs with a foot 18 hrs out in the last event? I don't recall a foot, but, yes, it's nothing to hang your hat on this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, Harry said: They may have said that in afd but check out zones further Se of Grand Rapids. The highest totals are still up that way ( 3-5 up there vs 1-4 along I94 ) which basically follows the GFS line of thinking. Just that they are way to low across the board which is very typical of this office sadly. It amazes me how a number of them ( there is a couple of people there who is very good at this stuff ) have kept thier job for as long as they have. Ofcourse some of them do alot better with severe and other weather stuff vs winter. Maybe they are jaded because it always snows in their back yard. Some of them kinda dismiss events that aren't bullseyes for GRR itself. Lake effect is always lowballed in the grids too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, frostfern said: Maybe they are jaded because it always snows in their back yard. Lake effect is always lowballed in the favored areas. Some of them kinda dismiss events that aren't bullseyes for GRR itself too. I think this is what Harry and Rogue are frequently complaining about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 I do not envy the NWS offices in this situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Wow, what significant differences in the GFS and Euro for this close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Considering the GFS & NAM are like duplicate copies..... shouldn't that mean something? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I do not envy the NWS offices in this situation Well yea. It's hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I do not envy the NWS offices in this situation We'll see what the Euro offers up but even if it's still relatively south, I think the hand is going to be forced into beginning to roll out watches this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Just now, Hoosier said: We'll see what the Euro offers up but even if it's still relatively south, I think the hand is going to be forced into beginning to roll out watches this afternoon. Particularly since the public is already aware of a storm. My MIL already asking about a big snowstorm. I told her not to get her hopes up, especially since she lives further north than I do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I do not envy the NWS offices in this situation LOT currently 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tuanis Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, ILSNOW said: bigger changes for Northbrook 0z--2.3 6z--1.7 12z--1.3 Could be wrong, but I think that's more a function of WAY less rain then previously forecast. Much of that falls as frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 Comparing all of guidance, the difference in the more NW NAM/GFS vs all other SE guidance is not tied to just one thing being different. The SE camp is different with all five pieces that are of focus for this storm system. That's fairly significant for being only ~36 hours out from the main storm system moving into the sub-forum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 Euro looks to bump SE. Edit: And weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 amazing event to event consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 I know this is off topic but what is a good paid site for models? I know about PW but want to know what some Mets are using. Anyways being this close to the event and so much difference’s going to be interesting to see what local Mets are saying around here. Will be fun ride home from work Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 Very solid agreement between the OP Euro/GEM/RGEM, with the UKMET just a hair north of that consensus. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said: I know this is off topic but what is a good paid site for models? I know about PW but want to know what some Mets are using. Anyways being this close to the event and so much difference’s going to be interesting to see what local Mets are saying around here. Will be fun ride home from work Thursday Pivotal is my choice for most data behind a paywall, but WxBell does offer much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Fire everyone at NCEP when the foreign models get this one right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Comparing all of guidance, the difference in the more NW NAM/GFS vs all other SE guidance is not tied to just one thing being different. The SE camp is different with all five pieces that are of focus for this storm system. That's fairly significant for being only ~36 hours out from the main storm system moving into the sub-forum. Annoying storm The sizable model differences have almost taken some of the fun out of the anticipation. Not enough evidence to really get excited. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 This reminds me of the classic NCEP vs foreign model guidance battles of many years past, which almost always ended in an NCEP failure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Very solid agreement between the OP Euro/GEM/RGEM, with the UKMET just a hair north of that consensus. Add in the GEM ENS are down to only 4 of 20 members being more amped/NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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