ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: gfs holding track wise but definitely continuing to take steps down in qpf and strength agree but would be happy this locally as I am sure u would be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Gotta believe pretty much all of DuPage and Cook are good no matter what, which sounds pretty familiar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: gfs holding track wise but definitely continuing to take steps down in qpf and strength That's why we're down from 5"-7" on the NW fringe to less than 2." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: gfs holding track wise but definitely continuing to take steps down in qpf and strength Still a nice storm, but one of these globals is going to be hilariously wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: agree but would be happy this locally as I am sure u would be Bad boy. No 10:1. It confuses hungover me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 GFS precip for downtown Chicago 0z --2.2 6z-- 2.1 12z--1.9 bigger changes for Northbrook 0z--2.3 6z--1.7 12z--1.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 FWIW, I prefer to use this when it comes to snow accums as it's usually more accurate than Kuchera or 10:1. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Bad boy. No 10:1. It confuses hungover me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: gfs holding track wise but definitely continuing to take steps down in qpf and strength you mean reality? While I love to look at 15" kuchera maps IMBY those events don't verify very often. I'll take a 6-12" event and run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 FWIW, I prefer to use this when it comes to snow accums as it's usually more accurate than Kuchera or 10:1. Neither of them are more accurate. A middle ground approach is always best when dealing with favorable ratios.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 For the Chicago people assuming Euro doesnt budge do they put a watch out for area from Chicago north and west where the Euro is showing nothing? Tough spot to be in hope Ricky drops in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: Neither of them are more accurate. A middle ground approach is always best when dealing with favorable ratios. . Excuse me, as I meant to say "reasonable" anyhow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: For the Chicago people assuming Euro doesnt budge do they put a watch out for area from Chicago north and west where the Euro is showing nothing? Tough spot to be in hope Ricky drops in. I seen something on DTW’s forecast that they are calling Thursday a potentially advisory event. I can see they are very skeptical after last time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 Excuse me, as I meant to say "reasonable" anyhow. awesome.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 12z GEM holds S.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Question are these Kuchera ratio on pivotal a middle ground approach for determining snowfall or is it meaningless? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Just now, ILSNOW said: Question are these Kuchera ratio on pivotal a middle ground approach for determining snowfall or is it meaningless? Not meaningless, but not incredibly meaningful either. So much has to be taken into account when it comes to ratios - not just temperature. Wind also plays a role and I imagine will certainly play one this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GEM holds S. . was hoping for some movement north to build some confidence in the american solutions. Maybe the euro will bite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Focusing on my area and the American models: GFS keeps temps right at freezing during the icing event before temps drop and sleet occurs. Due to marginal temps and heavier rates, I think quite a bit of freezing rain would runoff and lower accretion. NAM and 3k NAM keep me around 30 during the icing portion of the event, increasing accretion. Winds will be an issue if any significant icing should occur. I’m 24 hours away from breaking out the “ice accumulation index chart”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Just now, Baum said: was hoping for some movement north to build some confidence in the american solutions. Maybe the euro will bite. It’s a war of models even tho we are 30 ish hours of getting some precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 12z GEFS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 Interestingly enough, the poorly performing 12z UKMET bumped NW and is now further N than the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dj3 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Question for you guys since I haven't been following this storm at all since PA is warm sectored. I have a connecting flight leaving Midway tomorrow night at 10:15PM. Is the worst of the storm expected Thursday AM meaning we should be OK for take off? I see some wind and rain in the point and click forecast but it doesn't look like the changeover happens until after midnight? Thanks for any help or info you can provide and hope you guys cash in on some snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 FWIW, SREF went north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, dj3 said: Question for you guys since I haven't been following this storm at all since PA is warm sectored. I have a connecting flight leaving Midway tomorrow night at 10:15PM. Is the worst of the storm expected Thursday AM meaning we should be OK for take off? I see some wind and rain in the point and click forecast but it doesn't look like the changeover happens until after midnight? Thanks for any help or info you can provide and hope you guys cash in on some snow! You'll be fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 midway tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: midway tho Midway is my fave! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 20 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GEFS mean . I would take that, but even GRR is now saying the GFS is overdone and going with a lower compromise forecast for the grids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 I have big news. The 15z RAP is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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