ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 It feels like it has been a long time since we had a storm strengthening as it entered our area and we have become conditioned to expect a weakening POS every time. Maybe this is the time we reverse that and the storm will be GFS/NAM like. It is possible that the Euro and its foreign buddies could be wrong this time. Yes the 6z GFS is south/drier but i will happily take my 10 and run. People mentioning the lackluster look of the plumes well for GHDIII they were showing me getting 12-18 and I got 3. Here's to hoping that the GFS/NAM hold steady or improve from their 6z runs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: It feels like it has been a long time since we had a storm strengthening as it entered our area and we have become conditioned to expect a weakening POS every time. Maybe this is the time we reverse that and the storm will be GFS/NAM like. It is possible that the Euro and its foreign buddies could be wrong this time. Yes the 6z GFS is south/drier but i will happily take my 10 and run. People mentioning the lackluster look of the plumes well for GHDIII they were showing me getting 12-18 and I got 3. Here's to hoping that the GFS/NAM hold steady or improve from their 6z runs vort is shearing out even on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Just now, A-L-E-K said: vort is shearing out even on the gfs ok but is not possible that we end up with more of a GFS/NAM solution then a foreign solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 possible sure but smart money says no either way, the gfs (as modeled with the nice snow totals) is not showing the system strengthening in our area, it's already blown its load by the time it gets into n. il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Decent plumes for the Chicago Weens, while the plumes for us Detroit Weens dropped.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Have to sell the GFS and NAM kuchie numbers. They’re dumping 6 hour totals of 12-18” in spots. 2-3” per hour rates just aren’t going to happen IMO. Really think 8-12” amounts are a good range for LOT’s CWA, wherever that may be. Probably somewhere in the I-88/I-80 corridor. 6z Euro held serve. Battle continues… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 keeping the bifurcated look between cores, much like our global battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 The 06Z Euro continued to model the heaviest snows just south of Cook County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 6z EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 6z EPS mean . 6z rgemish. Looks like were honing in on location of higher totals. No surprise nw of dtw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 12z NAM bumping NW.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iBrian Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 and HE is from the area of Winter 21/22 Snowfall: 13.5" let's get some! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z NAM bumping NW. . sped up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 22 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z NAM bumping NW. Has me right on the line between another virtual shutout and about 2"...first time in my observations any model besides the GFS has given us more than a dusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Man nw trend is not being denied this time. If it keeps up I will stay all ice or end up getting all rain. Was kind of looking forward to a wind swept snow since last snowstorm was pretty windless. Hoping this can correct south a little. I'm right on the southern edge of the heaviest swath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snownado Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Man nw trend is not being denied this time. If it keeps up I will stay all ice or end up getting all rain. Was kind of looking forward to a wind swept snow since last snowstorm was pretty windless. Hoping this can correct south a little. I'm right on the southern edge of the heaviest swath. I wonder if it's because we are late in the winter. Are late winter storms more likely to trend northwest ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Would have bet the 12z NAM would have come SE. Weather is like a box of chocolates. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Snownado said: I wonder if it's because we are late in the winter. Are late winter storms more likely to trend northwest ? Climatology does favor it this time of year 1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said: Would have bet the 12z NAM would have come SE. Weather is like a box of chocolates. Honestly I thought so as well. My gut is saying it will track further se but I could be wrong. This does have better upper level support than last storm for a stronger more nw storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 some realistic looking numbers here and probably a hint at where the gfs is going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Looking like almost 50 just after midnight and by the end of the day it drops down to 10. Everything is going to freeze and freeze fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 12z RGEM bump S and weaker.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 loving the clarification with the 12z models so far 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 14 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: loving the clarification with the 12z models so far Not sure what you are talking about. Everything is totally on the same page. Nothing like the "Trace to 16" spread 2 days out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 if I go 50 degrees and heavy rain to freezing rain/sleet than 5" of snow and a flash freeze that's a pretty substantial event in a 24 hour period. I guess the saving grace it's not followed by a 5 day arctic air mass. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 I don't have access to it, but I've heard the 6z Euro bumped NW some more.....can anyone confirm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Just now, McHenrySnow said: I don't have access to it, but I've heard the 6z Euro bumped NW some more.....can anyone confirm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 12 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: I don't have access to it, but I've heard the 6z Euro bumped NW some more.....can anyone confirm? 06z Euro and 06z GFS are the 2 in the gif I posted above. Euro is still hot garbage for those of us on the NW flanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 lol GFS not going to back down. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 12Z GFS not budging...seems the models don't agree on anything except very paltry totals (if anything beyond DAB) northwest of a line drawn right through our BY, @madwx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 gfs holding track wise but definitely continuing to take steps down in qpf and strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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