Harry Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 6 minutes ago, Hoosier said: That's a little risky imo, especially given that the EPS has consistently been north of the op Euro. I feel like the course of least regret would be a compromise of some kind, but not overweighting the op Euro. Yep. As mentioned earlier I think one of them caves by/at 12z runs later on. We'll see. Was around same time it happened with GHD lll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Can you imagine if we only had the American models to rely on? Good thing the Euro is available. If you only had the GFS to rely on it'd be like trying to forecast back in the 1960s. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 9 minutes ago, Harry said: Yep. As mentioned earlier I think one of them caves by/at 12z runs later on. We'll see. Was around same time it happened with GHD lll. Honestly I think they're both (GFS and Euro) gonna cave toward each other. The spread between them is so big right now that it's a little hard to imagine one of them nailing it. And as said, the EPS is a red flag for me that something north of the current op Euro is very much in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 21 minutes ago, Harry said: Gut tells me GRR will ride the GFS. They tend to ( not always but usually ) follow whatever model ( GFS vs euro situation ) has the highest snowfall over the office and the GFS has that. Not saying if it's right or wrong but that's how they usually roll at this office. This. Truer words never spoken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 10 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Honestly I think they're both (GFS and Euro) gonna cave toward each other. The spread between them is so big right now that it's a little hard to imagine one of them nailing it. And as said, the EPS is a red flag for me that something north of the current op Euro is very much in play. It's comical watching them hold so hard. I did a comparison of the latest euro ensembles ( vs 18z ) and it is identical right down to this small gap ( between higher totals ) running across my backyard. Wish I could figure how to post them side by side. Never seen anything like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2012 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 I know it won't happen but wouldn't it be a riot if the heavy snow ended up in southern Indiana and central Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, chuckster2012 said: I know it won't happen but wouldn't it be a riot if the heavy snow ended up in southern Indiana and central Ohio? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Just now, McHenrySnow said: No. He is from southern Indiana.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 37 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Honestly I think they're both (GFS and Euro) gonna cave toward each other. The spread between them is so big right now that it's a little hard to imagine one of them nailing it. And as said, the EPS is a red flag for me that something north of the current op Euro is very much in play. Almost forgot. I do agree on the compromise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Somebody ought to post a side by side of the Euro and GFS snow maps for the lolz. Came up with this. Pretty impressive spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 And GFS goes southbound and a bit drier.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 hours ago, Harry said: Gut tells me GRR will ride the GFS. They tend to ( not always but usually ) follow whatever model ( GFS vs euro situation ) has the highest snowfall over the office and the GFS has that. Not saying if it's right or wrong but that's how they usually roll at this office. Judging by dtx graphic, they're riding the gfs too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 riding the south end of the GFS and the north end of the Euro. And the talk that the euro caved to the gfs,at least on the overunning event last time is not what occurred in NE Illinois. Both models in concert worked towards a consensus. GFS tip toed south and Euro north. But again 72 hours before the event Euro/Gem had me with not a flake while GFS was consistent with 4-8". I ended up with 6". This time every run of the GFS/NAM makes me worry this thing will amp and I'll get a sleet storm but than the Euro gives me hope a compromise/blend puts me in the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 GFS and NAM caving to weaker drier SE solution. Mchenrysnow and I need to move to DTW for snow. Weather is repetitive 1" far NW LOT, 3-6" metro, 4-7" southside over to DTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Just now, Cary67 said: GFS and NAM caving to weaker drier SE solution. Mchenrysnow and I need to move to DTW for snow. Weather is repetitive 1" far NW LOT, 3-6" metro, 4-7" southside over to DTW you've been damaged. you need to have faith. Though that out come would be the same as last. And to to say the GFS caved would be false. This time yesterday the Euro basically had the Chicago metro snowless. So in essence it has surrendered a touch to it's American brethren. And again, today is Tuesday. It's a Thursday event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 16 minutes ago, Baum said: riding the south end of the GFS and the north end of the Euro. And the talk that the euro caved to the gfs,at least on the overunning event last time is not what occurred in NE Illinois. Both models in concert worked towards a consensus. GFS tip toed south and Euro north. But again 72 hours before the event Euro/Gem had me with not a flake while GFS was consistent with 4-8". I ended up with 6". This time every run of the GFS/NAM makes me worry this thing will amp and I'll get a sleet storm but than the Euro gives me hope a compromise/blend puts me in the sweet spot. If the GFS was showing 4-8" at 72 hrs and the Euro nothing, the Euro must have tip toed north a decent amt for you to end up with 6". Although the gradient was steep south to north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 GEFS ensemble mean remains bullish for both Lake Counties in the CWA and the space in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 2 minutes ago, Baum said: you've been damaged. you need to have faith. Though that out come would be the same as last. And to to say the GFS caved would be false. This time yesterday the Euro basically had the Chicago metro snowless. So in essence it has surrendered a touch to it's American brethren. And again, today is Tuesday. It's a Thursday Fair enough but if this ends up having a GHDIII path after persistent amped NW GFS runs would be hard not to think it caved at least incrementally over the next 36 hrs. Along with Euro edging north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 expecting the american guidance to start moving hard towards the eps with 12z, plumes still underwhelming and 6z had that first steps look cary#s call looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: expecting the american guidance to start moving hard towards the eps with 12z, plumes still underwhelming and 6z had that first steps look cary#s call looks good I think his call looks good as well. Always easier to take the lower end of guidance in a snow call. But to me, a 3-6" call through the metro already says while the GFS was to far north and wet with the main snow band it didn't have ORD at zero which was the Euro look a day ago. Your own call supports what the non american models showed, and the GEM still shows. Fun to debate, but a read back through the previuos event shows that while the GFS was a touch to north and wet the Euro had to work back north to get LOT center zones in the game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 41 minutes ago, Cary67 said: GFS and NAM caving to weaker drier SE solution. Mchenrysnow and I need to move to DTW for snow. Weather is repetitive 1" far NW LOT, 3-6" metro, 4-7" southside over to DTW How are either of this caving to a weaker/drier solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 40 minutes ago, Cary67 said: If the GFS was showing 4-8" at 72 hrs and the Euro nothing, the Euro must have tip toed north a decent amt for you to end up with 6". yep on Sunday 1/30 00Z Euro run I was out of the game. Euro worked back to this. As a sidenote, I'll post Canadian Mean. Look familar? Posting old maps as an attempt to show where a compromise on this event is probably in the cards. Note: GFS always had me in a solid event albeit overdone in the end, but still a warning criteria event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 ^ I'll let the pro back me up: THE ECMWF CONTINUED, AS NOTED ABOVE, TO HOLD IN ITS "MIDDLE GROUND" SOLUTION, WHILE THE OTHER COMMONLY CITED OPERATIONAL MODELS HELD FARTHER SOUTH (WITH NORTHWARD SHIFTS SINCE 24-HOURS AGO). RC from todays AFD And this is no way throwing full support in the direction of the American models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 I have a very different perspective with the models. They are much improved within 72 hours (honestly within 120 hours). Yes there are difference and each models have biases. No they are not perfect. Living through the 70s, 80s and 90s and even somewhat into the 00s. It was common with 24 hours to have a 6-12" forecast of snow to verify as a T-2" wiff or be mostly rain (or the opposite would occur). Surprise last second storms rarely happen any more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 6z GEFS did come south and drier and we have lost the 6z ICON. Hoping the that GEOS magnet pulls this storm our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 33 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: How are either of this caving to a weaker/drier solution? Not a big fan of Kuchera except for clipper systems. They seemed inflated during the last storm. For this storm more anticipating GFS and NAM will keep ticking SE to meet Euro edging north after the 6Z runs blinked. Granted previous post had too much of an emotional component 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 6z GEFS did come south and drier and we have lost the 6z ICON. Hoping the that GEOS magnet pulls this storm our way. I like that look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 50 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: How are either of this caving to a weaker/drier solution? Verbatim, the 0z GFS had a max of 25” in McHenry County. 6z is only 10-15” there…and the max a bit further south is much less than 25”. All relative… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Just now, Cary67 said: Not a big fan of Kuchera except for clipper systems. They seemed inflated during the last storm. For this storm more anticipating GFS and NAM will keep ticking SE to meet Euro edging north after the 6Z runs blinked. Granted previous post had too much of an emotional component snow is a highly emotional game. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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