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Feb 16-17th Winter Storm


Chicago Storm
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2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Taking a look at the Euro wind fields and expected snowfall rates, even its tamer output (compared to GFS/NAM) would be flirting with blizzard conditions in some areas.

That’s what has been on my mind last few days even with a 3 to 5 incher would definitely be some crazy sights 

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10 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

For the LOT cwa, at this point I think there's enough confidence to start talking up a sig-major storm/impact in the area, while expressing the uncertainty that remains particularly farther north in the cwa.

If I get to smell another siggy event while watching flurries, I may run headfirst into a wall. GHD III was brutal to be in the middle of the cutoff. 

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On a very local level, one thing I'm curious about is if the cold front will get a little lake enhanced bump southward with the cold water temps and the main surface low still well upstream Wed night/early Thu.  Would not materially affect things too much other than maybe a slightly quicker temp drop.

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I guess GRR Meteorologist wanted to be done with the day early this is a bland AFD. 





LATEST UPDATE...
Discussion/Marine/Hydro

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 256 PM EST Mon Feb 14 2022

- Lake enhanced snow tapers off this evening

Expect about another half inch to inch of snow this evening near
Lake Michigan before subsidence associated with surface and upper
ridging moves in and puts an end to the activity shortly after
midnight.

- Mid-week storm

Attention continues to focus on forecast details indicated by
ensemble trends for Wednesday-Thursday. The best bet at this point
is to find a middle ground between the GFS and ECMWF precip
totals, which currently would translate to rain amounts of 0.5 to
0.75 Wednesday followed by 6 to 10 inches of snow on Thursday.
The GFS mean is closer to 10 inches, while the ECMWF is around 6
inches, with the higher amounts displaced further south than the
GFS, although the 12Z ECMWF has trended a bit closer to the GFS.

There is also a signal for some icing during the transition from
rain to snow Wednesday night, but details on this are inherently
even lower confidence than snow totals.

In summary, the potential for snowfall greater than 5 inches
across much of the forecast area between Wednesday night and
Thursday evening may be increasing.
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