AWMT30 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 And the RAP did quite well once we got inside 51 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 1:31 AM, Cary67 said: Not sure but I thought Euro actually caved near term on the over running event back south a bit towards the NAM but that was after global runs backed off further NW solutions Expand Both the NAM and Euro 72 hours or so out showed a complete miss for LOT metro. GFS always had us in the game. EURO ticked NW incrementally and as event neared GFS made a slight shift SE where they reached a consensus track. Probably watching the same scenario again. Weenie in me says were going full on amped this go round. It's time. And I'll save the trouble 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Plumes not exactly hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 1:48 AM, A-L-E-K said: Plumes not exactly hot Expand ban 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 1:38 AM, AWMT30 said: And the RAP did quite well once we got inside 51 hours. Expand If you're talking about GHD III that's a no. The RAP had multiple runs of 12-18" for the Chi metro area. It like the HRRR was too far NW for multiple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 1:48 AM, A-L-E-K said: Plumes not exactly hot Expand Mean swath bumped SE and also looks drier compared to the 15z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 1:53 AM, Thundersnow12 said: If you're talking about GHD III that's a no. The RAP had multiple runs of 12-18" for the Chi metro area. It like the HRRR was too far NW for multiple runs. Expand It nailed it pretty darn good for the Lansing area and to my NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 The joe ride the eps strat is the way to go here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Early look at the NAM is it's going to be slower again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 2:03 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Early look at the NAM is it's going to be slower againWe’ll have to watch that trend.It was something that was seen with GHD3 in the days leading up to it. Guidance overcorrected in that case, and then ended up coming back faster once again.The other potential would obviously be for it to keep trending slower, which then could cause other issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/14/2022 at 11:18 PM, snowstormcanuck said: Early thinking 75% EURO/UKIE/CMC, 25% GFS compromise. As has been pointed out, this is very similar to GHDIII and I believe that's the blend between the NW/SE camp that ended up being reality. Would yield a tremendous ice storm imby. Expand Supposed to head up to Muskoka this weekend. May go up a bit earlier in the week if it looks to be a good one. The models are showing some big snow but forecasts (weather network, EC) are showing heavy rain. Think it ends up being a good storm up there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 2:11 AM, Chicago Storm said: We’ll have to watch that trend. It was something that was seen with GHD3 in the days leading up to it. Guidance overcorrected in that case, and then ended up coming back faster once again. The other potential would obviously be for it to keep trending slower, which then could cause other issues . Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 NAM will either be north, or end up going big earlier and shearing out faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 2:16 AM, mississaugasnow said: Supposed to head up to Muskoka this weekend. May go up a bit earlier in the week if it looks to be a good one. The models are showing some big snow but forecasts (weather network, EC) are showing heavy rain. Think it ends up being a good storm up there? Expand Heavy rain in Muskoka? Anything's possible but that would require an slp track through Huron or something, which even the GFS isn't showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 2:32 AM, Chicago Storm said: NAM will either be north, or end up going big earlier and shearing out faster. Expand Really cranks quickly once it ejects and goes negatively tilted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 2:36 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Really cranks quickly once it ejects and goes negatively tilted Expand i'm okay with it. golden track for back yard. to bad it's monday night and it's a thursday event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 15, 2022 Author Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 2:32 AM, Chicago Storm said: NAM will either be north, or end up going big earlier and shearing out faster. Expand The former. Crusher. Edit: Both. Can see how it shears quicker heading into the Great Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Can’t believe I’m asking this…but anyone have access to sleet accumulation maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 2:38 AM, Chicago Storm said: The former. Crusher. Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 2:34 AM, snowstormcanuck said: Heavy rain in Muskoka? Anything's possible but that would require an slp track through Huron or something, which even the GFS isn't showing. Expand haha ya. Check out the weather networks forecast. 15-20mm of rain Wednesday/Wednesday night and then flurries with 5cm Thursday. Looking at the models and then looking at the forecast and not sure what they see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 2:39 AM, sbnwx85 said: Can’t believe I’m asking this…but anyone have access to sleet accumulation maps? Expand 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Ridiculous snow forecast totals. Totally overdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 The 6hr totals map even at 10:1 is pretty wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 2:39 AM, sbnwx85 said: Can’t believe I’m asking this…but anyone have access to sleet accumulation maps? Expand As far as free sites, coolwx.com has them. Using a 3:1 ratio for sleet is usually a good approximation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Well on the bright side any ice Cedar Rapids gets will be light, maybe just under a tenth of an inch. However as Hoosier said earlier, just a tenth of an inch of ice with strong winds can cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 2:44 AM, Natester said: Ridiculous snow forecast totals. Totally overdone. Expand I don't think 0.6 is too crazy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 2:49 AM, Baum said: I don't think 0.6 is too crazy Expand I meant in Missouri and Illinois LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 2:44 AM, Natester said: Ridiculous snow forecast totals. Totally overdone. Expand It is the NAM. Cut the numbers in half and you will be much closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 Wow....NAM went way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 On 2/15/2022 at 2:56 AM, Jonger said: Wow....NAM went way north. Expand That’s ice zone for me. Good thing I got ice skates that’s how I’ll get home from work 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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