CheeselandSkies Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GFS actually bumped NW. . Riding that 6"+ line again (10:1, even more so Kuchera) @madwx 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GFS actually bumped NW. . It was the only model that had the last storm as far North as it did, with the main show banding all the way up to near lansing, and ended up being 200+ miles SE of detroit. You think its gonna cave or score a coup with this one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 gonna be a hard cave for one of the globals, still tons of space for a d3 guidance split 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 ICON was north, the truth has been revealed 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Holy shit the GFS. What do I need to do to make that happen 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 23 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said: It was the only model that had the last storm as far North as it did, with the main show banding all the way up to near lansing, and ended up being 200+ miles SE of detroit. You think its gonna cave or score a coup with this one? My feeling for about 3 days now has been that we will see a compromise between the GFS/Euro solutions, which would impact near where GHD3 hit. A few things to watch though, which are differences between the GFS/Euro. The GFS is a good bit further north with the lead wave that moves across Canada on Tue/Wed, while the Euro is much further south. This impacts ridging ahead of the main through in the West. Another thing is hat there are some differences in how the GFS/Euro handle how much the main through will dig into the Southwest, and where exactly the secondary wave diving into the West tracks. Some of this difference is connected to the aforementioned differences in how the lead wave is handled for Tue/Wed. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, hlcater said: Holy shit the GFS. What do I need to do to make that happen You and Nate need to join forces and, I don't know, sacrifice a goat or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 gem not gfs/nam like but jumping north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 12z GEFS Mean 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 12z rgem looks more organized, as does the 12z gdps. I'm still a little confused the difference between those 2. I know they're both the Canadian model, rgem the short term model, but sometimes they do have subtle differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Stevo6899 said: 12z rgem looks more organized, as does the 12z gdps. I'm still a little confused the difference between those 2. I know they're both the Canadian model, rgem the short term model, but sometimes they do have subtle differences. Think of it like the GFS vs the NAM for us, that's essentially what they are. Then there is also the HRDPS, which would be like the 3km NAM to us. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GEFS Mean this works for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 where do I go to sign up for the 12z GFS 10:1 snowfall? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Canadian and UKMET remain south. A hair north on the UKMET and a fairly substantial jump north from the Canadian. Still well south of the GFS. As much as I'd like to believe, I don't really see a scenario where the GFS is correct and everything caves towards it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Just now, hlcater said: Canadian and UKMET remain south. A hair north on the UKMET and a fairly substantial jump north from the Canadian. Still well south of the GFS. As much as I'd like to believe, I don't really see a scenario where the GFS is correct and everything caves towards it. dont forget the NAM !!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Just now, hlcater said: Canadian and UKMET remain south. A hair north on the UKMET and a fairly substantial jump north from the Canadian. Still well south of the GFS. As much as I'd like to believe, I don't really see a scenario where the GFS is correct and everything caves towards it. This isn't to say the GFS is right by any means, but......the UKMET is pretty terrible. Canadian isn't a lot better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Just now, hlcater said: Canadian and UKMET remain south. A hair north on the UKMET and a fairly substantial jump north from the Canadian. Still well south of the GFS. As much as I'd like to believe, I don't really see a scenario where the GFS is correct and everything caves towards it. ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Just now, Baum said: ok. I've always kind of been a closet UKMET truther. It's kinda been blowing chunks this year though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 Just now, hlcater said: I've always kind of been a closet UKMET truther. It's kinda been blowing chunks this year though This winter might be the worst performance I can recall from it. And that's surprising, because last winter it had moments of greatness. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 31 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: You and Nate need to join forces and, I don't know, sacrifice a goat or something. Yeah, but what does the ICON say? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 If something resembling the stronger models verifies, it's going to result in an outsized impact for whatever amount of ice that occurs. Just a tenth or two of ice with 40+ mph gusts would act more like a quarter to half inch would in light winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 I would be selling significant ice accretion at advertised precipitation rates especially if temps the day before approach 50 and the ground is wet from heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 5 minutes ago, mimillman said: I would be selling significant ice accretion at advertised precipitation rates especially if temps the day before approach 50 and the ground is wet from heavy rain. The rates are definitely a factor that could mitigate icing amounts if they're too high. It's been cold and with a relatively short duration of warm temps, I don't think it will take long for the ground to start icing up after temps fall below freezing (especially untreated surfaces) and trees/powerlines should start freezing even quicker than the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Come on GFS. We have been so bone dry around here. Running nearly 20" below normal in Madison. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 17 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The rates are definitely a factor that could mitigate icing amounts if they're too high. It's been cold and with a relatively short duration of warm temps, I don't think it will take long for the ground to start icing up after temps fall below freezing (especially untreated surfaces) and trees/powerlines should start freezing even quicker than the ground. Agreed ground temps will not warm much because of a few hours above freezing unless it is full sunny day. Trees do however (maple syrup experience) warm relatively quickly so they will take at least a little extra time to get icy (not like I am talking hours). In these situations (warm => cold ice storms) I find it a lot to do with how quickly temps drop. Ice accretion with temps in 30-31 range is definitely hampered by the heavier rate. Once you get 28 or below then I find ice accretion and rates go hand in hand. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 3 minutes ago, Lightning said: Agreed ground temps will not warm much because of a few hours above freezing unless it is full sunny day. Trees do however (maple syrup experience) warm relatively quickly so they will take at least a little extra time to get icy (not like I am talking hours). In these situations (warm => cold ice storms) I find it a lot to do with how quickly temps drop. Ice accretion with temps in 30-31 range is definitely hampered by the heavier rate. Once you get 28 or below then I find ice accretion and rates go hand in hand. My observation over the years is that objects like trees and powerlines react more quickly to whatever the air temp is. The ground is a trickier thing. Coming out of cold spells, we have seen instances of the ground lagging and taking longer to warm above freezing even after the air temp goes above freezing. Conversely, the ground *can* take longer to cool off after air temps drop below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 12z Euro will bump north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Hopefully the Euro comes north so that the baby stepping in messaging toward a higher impact event can begin. Logic would say that it would come north, but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Euro headed North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Hopefully the Euro comes north so that the baby stepping in messaging toward a higher impact event can begin. Logic would say that it would come north, but who knows. One would assume its either gonna come north and be a respectable storm, or stay SE and be less of an impact wherever it precipitates? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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