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2/16 - 2/18 severe weather event


ATDoel
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Are threads allowed here this time of year that aren't winter storms impacting the Carolinas?  Ok, cool.

Models have been picking up on this system for several days now with unusually high agreement, showing severe weather over three days impacting Texas to the Carolinas.  I guess that's why the SPC has issued a 15% risk a whole week out, don't see that very often.  

 

day7prob.gif

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Discussion from SPC on tomorrow's event and why they upgraded to enhance.

 

"with south-southwesterly 850 mb winds in excess of 50 to 60 kt increasing to west-southwesterly at 70 to 90 kt at mid levels -- is suggestive of supercells, and attendant risk for damaging winds and several -- and possibly locally strong/damaging -- tornadoes."

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1 hour ago, LiQuiDBuD said:

I guess we got a little overzealous with the storm thread, huh?

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk
 

Several tornadoes in Alabama today, had one pass right over my house and touchdown 5 miles away.

 

I mean it’s this or an inch of snow in NC somewhere, beggars can’t be choosers lol

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Several tornadoes in Alabama today, had one pass right over my house and touchdown 5 miles away.
 
I mean it’s this or an inch of snow in NC somewhere, beggars can’t be choosers lol
The fact there weren't any storm related posts during the event was the impetus for my criticism.

Glad you're safe!

Sent from my Pixel 6 Pro using Tapatalk

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Thursday kind of surprised in Alabama. I figured the CAPE was more robust in Mississippi; however, the line was also forced. Same east-west boundary sat in Alabama, awaiting the pre-frontal trough. Sure enough the boundary intersection was the epicenter. Notably the FV3 got the scenario day ahead. NAM caught on later. 

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