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Feb 12/13 Event Quest for Blues to Envelop More Rather Than Less


North Balti Zen
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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Actually I’m not sure it ever will be. Well, take that back. I’ve never seen it be too dry

Yeah. I am not sure we really have a decent short range model at all in all honesty. I think the FV3 is supposed to end up being that. But lets hope its wrong about this one. It looks like every other event this winter. 

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18z NAM actually gave me some real interest and hope but I'm not surprised by the 0z at all. Where is the cold air right now? These setups where we are waiting on the cold air to bleed in almost always end up much father north and west with the significant accumulations. You can forget models and just forecast these by climo and the history of seeing these storms a billion times here before.

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3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. I am not sure we really have a decent short range model at all in all honesty. I think the FV3 is supposed to end up being that. But lets hope its wrong about this one. It looks like every other event this winter. 

At this point IDGAS. I hope next year the only storms we get are cutters into CAD. I’m sick of precip scraps.

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4 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

18z NAM actually gave me some real interest and hope but I'm not surprised by the 0z at all. Where is the cold air right now? These setups where we are waiting on the cold air to bleed in almost always end up much father north and west with the significant accumulations. You can forget models and just forecast these by climo and the history of seeing these storms a billion times here before.

Although....1/3 was also warm beforehand. I think it just depends on the storm.

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Just now, Ji said:
12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:
At this point IDGAS. I hope next year the only storms we get are cutters into CAD. I’m sick of precip scraps.

Indeed. I hate this winter. One of the worst of all time

Dude...perspective: winter 19-20 would like to have a word. Not saying this winter hasn't been incredibly frustrating, but at least at a minimum it FELT like winter. Yes that's a bit of a low bar, but when you say WORST...worst to me is a raging AO and 50 degrees all winter.

BUT, at the same time, I can understand your frustration...it has not been boring but the ROI this winter is almost in the red save the first week of January. So I guess it depends on how ya look at it!

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21 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

18z NAM actually gave me some real interest and hope but I'm not surprised by the 0z at all. Where is the cold air right now? These setups where we are waiting on the cold air to bleed in almost always end up much father north and west with the significant accumulations. You can forget models and just forecast these by climo and the history of seeing these storms a billion times here before.

Exactly. Some people claim there is negativity  here when it is actually just reality. 
 

Still 44 degrees here and only dropping 1 degree an hour. There is already a math problem here. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Dude...perspective: winter 19-20 would like to have a word. Not saying this winter hasn't been incredibly frustrating, but at least at a minimum it FELT like winter. Yes that's a bit of a low bar, but when you say WORST...worst to me is a raging AO and 50 degrees all winter.

BUT, at the same time, I can understand your frustration...it has not been boring but the ROI this winter is almost in the red save the first week of January. So I guess it depends on how ya look at it!

Oh it’s been miles better than 19-20

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29 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

18z NAM actually gave me some real interest and hope but I'm not surprised by the 0z at all. Where is the cold air right now? These setups where we are waiting on the cold air to bleed in almost always end up much father north and west with the significant accumulations. You can forget models and just forecast these by climo and the history of seeing these storms a billion times here before.

lwx mentioned in one of their previous disco's that the downsloping effects (cold area filtering in from the nw) in these types of scenarios is one of the reasons why temps are often times lagging too far behind the precip.  that said, there are times when it does work, so who knows.

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35 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

18z NAM actually gave me some real interest and hope but I'm not surprised by the 0z at all. Where is the cold air right now? These setups where we are waiting on the cold air to bleed in almost always end up much father north and west with the significant accumulations. You can forget models and just forecast these by climo and the history of seeing these storms a billion times here before.

9 times out of 10 this is the case. Jan. 3rd was one of those rare exceptions where areas hit the mid 60s and then got a foot of snow 12-18 hours later. But that was a different, more dynamic setup with distinct LP riding the boundary.

The downsloping in the NW flow can certainly help the warm air hold in the PBL in events like this one. It will all come down to the degree of mesoscale banding and where it sets up, although the higher elevs and mtns certainly have an advantage going into this.

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