Scraff Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Looks like it's hangin' from about west-central Virginia up to Jersey! I was looking for “a little to the left”, but your explanation will suffice as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I might have overdone it lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Don’t really care to hear what the NAMs are supposed to be good at, I will never trust anything they out out HRRR is in the same league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Uhhh, doesn't exactly look all that great for Westminster either. It is quite a bit drier across almost the entire area compared to 18z. Shows 3.3” there. Looks fine to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I’m still riding the 18z derpy. F the NAM! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 FWIW, HRRR 01z looks like more QPF rather than less, or at least a similar amount. Definitely not the disaster the NAMs were. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 DC should be hugging the FV3. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: DC should be hugging the FV3. You still riding your HRRR train? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: You still riding your HRRR train? It has to be right once right? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: It has to be right once right? Actually I’m not sure it ever will be. Well, take that back. I’ve never seen it be too dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Still coming down but HRRR is only improving on the band location 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Actually I’m not sure it ever will be. Well, take that back. I’ve never seen it be too dry Yeah. I am not sure we really have a decent short range model at all in all honesty. I think the FV3 is supposed to end up being that. But lets hope its wrong about this one. It looks like every other event this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChillinIt Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 HRRR all the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 18z NAM actually gave me some real interest and hope but I'm not surprised by the 0z at all. Where is the cold air right now? These setups where we are waiting on the cold air to bleed in almost always end up much father north and west with the significant accumulations. You can forget models and just forecast these by climo and the history of seeing these storms a billion times here before. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I am not sure we really have a decent short range model at all in all honesty. I think the FV3 is supposed to end up being that. But lets hope its wrong about this one. It looks like every other event this winter. At this point IDGAS. I hope next year the only storms we get are cutters into CAD. I’m sick of precip scraps. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 WB 1Z HRRR…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 18z NAM actually gave me some real interest and hope but I'm not surprised by the 0z at all. Where is the cold air right now? These setups where we are waiting on the cold air to bleed in almost always end up much father north and west with the significant accumulations. You can forget models and just forecast these by climo and the history of seeing these storms a billion times here before. Although....1/3 was also warm beforehand. I think it just depends on the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: At this point IDGAS. I hope next year the only storms we get are cutters into CAD. I’m sick of precip scraps. If we do end up with a Nino next year we will be fine. Active southern stream should give you plenty of that. And chances for big storms as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 At this point IDGAS. I hope next year the only storms we get are cutters into CAD. I’m sick of precip scraps.Indeed. I hate this winter. One of the worst of all time 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 I’m thinking 4-6 region wide. Solid call? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: At this point IDGAS. I hope next year the only storms we get are cutters into CAD. I’m sick of precip scraps. Indeed. I hate this winter. One of the worst of all time Dude...perspective: winter 19-20 would like to have a word. Not saying this winter hasn't been incredibly frustrating, but at least at a minimum it FELT like winter. Yes that's a bit of a low bar, but when you say WORST...worst to me is a raging AO and 50 degrees all winter. BUT, at the same time, I can understand your frustration...it has not been boring but the ROI this winter is almost in the red save the first week of January. So I guess it depends on how ya look at it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 1 hour ago, Ji said: Nam3k has us at 41 right now Nam has me at 45 right now but I have 40 dewpoint 21 it’s dropping here in SE PA stiff NNE wind too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 21 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 18z NAM actually gave me some real interest and hope but I'm not surprised by the 0z at all. Where is the cold air right now? These setups where we are waiting on the cold air to bleed in almost always end up much father north and west with the significant accumulations. You can forget models and just forecast these by climo and the history of seeing these storms a billion times here before. Exactly. Some people claim there is negativity here when it is actually just reality. Still 44 degrees here and only dropping 1 degree an hour. There is already a math problem here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Dude...perspective: winter 19-20 would like to have a word. Not saying this winter hasn't been incredibly frustrating, but at least at a minimum it FELT like winter. Yes that's a bit of a low bar, but when you say WORST...worst to me is a raging AO and 50 degrees all winter. BUT, at the same time, I can understand your frustration...it has not been boring but the ROI this winter is almost in the red save the first week of January. So I guess it depends on how ya look at it! Oh it’s been miles better than 19-20 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 29 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 18z NAM actually gave me some real interest and hope but I'm not surprised by the 0z at all. Where is the cold air right now? These setups where we are waiting on the cold air to bleed in almost always end up much father north and west with the significant accumulations. You can forget models and just forecast these by climo and the history of seeing these storms a billion times here before. lwx mentioned in one of their previous disco's that the downsloping effects (cold area filtering in from the nw) in these types of scenarios is one of the reasons why temps are often times lagging too far behind the precip. that said, there are times when it does work, so who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 13, 2022 Author Share Posted February 13, 2022 42/25 in Monkton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 37/21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 35 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 18z NAM actually gave me some real interest and hope but I'm not surprised by the 0z at all. Where is the cold air right now? These setups where we are waiting on the cold air to bleed in almost always end up much father north and west with the significant accumulations. You can forget models and just forecast these by climo and the history of seeing these storms a billion times here before. 9 times out of 10 this is the case. Jan. 3rd was one of those rare exceptions where areas hit the mid 60s and then got a foot of snow 12-18 hours later. But that was a different, more dynamic setup with distinct LP riding the boundary. The downsloping in the NW flow can certainly help the warm air hold in the PBL in events like this one. It will all come down to the degree of mesoscale banding and where it sets up, although the higher elevs and mtns certainly have an advantage going into this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 RGEM is better this run. An inch or two for the cities north and west. It was a dumpster fire last run so that is good I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 13, 2022 Share Posted February 13, 2022 42/27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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