Jebman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Congrats guys. I am sure this will overperform! Just noticed your WWA as I was getting my daily meteorological obs in 13 different cities. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawk Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 54/26 in Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 BRB - tossing the gfs into the abyss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Not feeling this for Annandale. Hope I’m wrong. Worried about temps. Will the rate overcome them? Who the frick knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 20 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I think it got stuck...lol If it is indeed wrong that would take it from a winning g record to about .500...lol I’m fairness to the Gfs this is not the kind of setup where it should be used anyways. We wouldn’t even think to use it to place meso scale features in a larger scale storm. This is no different just makes it look worse since there is no larger synoptic feature to hide its meso scale deficiencies within. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 SREF looks entirely reasonable. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: That was the last event it nailed at range. Now the ICON figures it out sooner. Dunno I still think it’s been less jumpy since the upgrade. It still has flaws but if you know when to adjust for them it’s been less prone to crazy tangents. Those are what used to drive me crazy. I can account for a models errors so long as it’s somewhat consistent. But it’s back to being second best to the euro that’s for sure. It was always more the euro had a rough patch making the Gfs seem better by comparison. That said I do think the Gfs is incrementally better now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 48/30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Dunno I still think it’s been less jumpy since the upgrade. It still has flaws but if you know when to adjust for them it’s been less prone to crazy tangents. Those are what used to drive me crazy. I can account for a models errors so long as it’s somewhat consistent. But it’s back to being second best to the euro that’s for sure. It was always more the euro had a rough patch making the Gfs seem better by comparison. That said I do think the Gfs is incrementally better now. It is better, and has closed the gap with the Euro, but having a bit of a bad stretch recently. I knock it lately mostly to be contrarian to all those who claim it is now the superior global model. Lol it is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Hawk said: Man, Bernie Rayno is super down on this, calling it a non event. Cool I expect 4” then 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Interesting look on the nws web page map.... only winter storm warning in the entire lower 48 is down here in Augusta....really stands out.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, Hawk said: Chris is a solid Philly area Pro Met. We all fear this in La Nina. You know what bring the spring. Faster we get there the faster we get to next winter and hit the reset. Just gotta get through the next 9 months. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: It is better, and has closed the gap with the Euro, but having a bit of a bad stretch recently. I knock it lately mostly to be contrarian to all those who claim it is now the superior global model. Lol it is not. It sucks with mesoscale events...this is an event which 30 years ago the forecast would likely have no snow except for probably SE MA with the coastal...no models back then would have had the resolution to see the band of snow generated from DC up to NYC. The modern day GFS can sort of see that band but its misplacing it or thinking its going to be less significant. The NGM/LFM/AVN though probably would have had a totally dry forecast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Why is there discussion about spring and longer range thoughts in a thread that's about an upcoming event later tonight and tomorrow? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Latest HRDPS is a nice event for the metro corridor and central md 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Super zoomed out but 2-4” for many. MOCO HOCO to BAL 4+, 4-6” back near Staunton again 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 7 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Why is there discussion about spring and longer range thoughts in a thread that's about an upcoming event later tonight and tomorrow? The Philly interloper is lost 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: 45/30 Yessir! Temps finally making progress in Carroll county. 46.5/30 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 53/32 in the market Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 12, 2022 Author Share Posted February 12, 2022 49/26 in Monkton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jmk Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 54/31 Gainesville. My bar is set for any sort of white on the grass. Anything else will be a plus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PantherJustin Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Pretty Decent Flizzard up here at 4500’ (SnowShoe WV) …. Doubt it but hoping for 3-6”, best of luck to all of you tonight/Tomorrow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawk Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 CWG Isn’t enthusiastic. Coating to 2” with 3-6 possible in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 49.1/32.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, snowmagnet said: CWG Isn’t enthusiastic. Coating to 2” with 3-6 possible in the mountains. 1-2” seems to be the general consensus among all local media. Wbal, despite their chief met tweeting a model showing 3-6, went 1-2 for tomorrow. Will probably be areas that see more depending on banding, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 45/25. Will be nice to get some fresh snow on the grass at least. I am down to just a few piles left in the shade from my house. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, snowmagnet said: CWG Isn’t enthusiastic. Coating to 2” with 3-6 possible in the mountains. They just posted rain changing to light snow overnight they must know something 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 I've been out of the loop the last few days. Been unbelievably busy. Just got a chance to look a bit further. It's certainly a minor event we're looking at here. A majority will see 1-3" but a few spots could reach the 4" mark if things break right. Hi-res guidance has a weak area of 850mb frontogen basically running up the 95 corridor which should be a positive for areas along and NW of the fall line. Temps will be slowly improving through the overnight into the AM, but the modest rates and lack of strong forcing will keep ratios at a solid 8-10:1 with perhaps some slightly higher in the best bands. NBM currently has a wide area of 2" for most with some 3" readings along Parrs Ridge and the higher terrain running along the M/D up to NW of Philly. 18z HRRR was crazy bullish on snow potential surprisingly, so curious to see if it's off its rocker. HRDPS (Yeah I know it sucks) has been somewhat consistent on a 40 mile wide band in CMD that bisects MoCo/HoCo/Balt Co. I'd watch that area and places 20-30 miles either side. Enjoy the snow y'all! Final call: Widespread 1-3" with lolli of 4" over portions of NMD and along Parrs Ridge possibly 8 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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