jayyy Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said: I’m guessing the gfs? 1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said: I’m guessing the gfs? 1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said: I’m guessing the gfs? Likely. Dark sky uses that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Unfortunately it’s a fairly meso band associated with the jet enhancement. So it’s not going to be a forum wide flush hit. That option died when the option of getting some stream phasing and a legit coastal went poof 4 days ago. Given a combo of where most live AND where has been screwed pretty hard this season…it’s close to best case. Stripes the urban corridor pretty good and if one side has to take one for the team I nominate the SE 1/3 this time. And yes I’m obviously incredibly biased. In a non biased way given the very marginal boundary and the trend warmer recently I’m not sure how much good heavier precip SE of 95 would really do anyone anyways. Hence my “it’s close to a best case scenario” comment. We are likely going to get less snow here but not because of temps. It will be due the the initial upper jet streak maxing out further NW, then the new jet emerging from the base of the trough advancing up along the coast that will get the coastal low going, so might be a bit betwixt and between here with generally lighter snow. If moderate to heavy snow does fall here for a time, it will absolutely accumulate, esp given the timing from after midnight through the morning hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 NAM’d and GRAF’d!? Well damn! Huggin the living s**t out o those. I mean what could possibly go wrong? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 It could be wrong. I don’t know. I hope it is. Will be interesting to see if we are still at 40 at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Herb@MAWS Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 18 minutes ago, jayyy said: HoCo / MoCo may be well positioned. Far enough south for enhancement from the jet, far enough away from 95 for temps. Models are all over the place with this setup Bring on the Deathband 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 5 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Are you ever optimistic? The answer is nope, never 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 LOL the GFS seems so lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 13 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: Fwiw my hourly forecast on my app doesn’t have us going below freezing at all during the event. 34 is the min. That is problematic. Singing A very different tune than the NAM is. Low of 31 here. UHI sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 41 minutes ago, mappy said: lol I wish It's really a detriment to the weather enterprise how some broadcast mets just chug and plug raw model output. The public doesn't know how to differentiate one model from another and just thinks the entire profession is a fraud. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Wow the 18z 3k is juuuiicceedd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Stubborn. Actually a bit south and not as broad with the precip max. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Very low thickness values by Monday morning, could see near zero F in rural nw MD and teens in the cities, over a fresh 3-5 inch snow pack. Highs only in the 20s to near 30F on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's really a detriment to the weather enterprise how some broadcast mets just chug and plug raw model output. The public doesn't know how to differentiate one model from another and just thinks the entire profession is a fraud. And it's a relatively recent thing too. Before the mid 2010s, they never used to do this. They would just give their forecast, tell the public how to prepare for whatever is coming, and that was it. Normies back then had no idea what the GFS or NAM or ECMWF were, and honestly it is better that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: LOL the GFS seems so lost. Not only is it placing the banding in a different location it’s oriented completely off from all other guidance. If it did happen to be right by some miracle this would be far more impressive than it’s coup Jan 3 where it was right first at 4-5 days out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: LOL the GFS seems so lost. Yeah I think it got stuck...lol If it is indeed wrong that would take it from a winning g record to about .500...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Kleimax said: This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kleimax said: That's a 10:1 map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: It's really a detriment to the weather enterprise how some broadcast mets just chug and plug raw model output. The public doesn't know how to differentiate one model from another and just thinks the entire profession is a fraud. These tools are all about hyperbole and getting the clicks. No one watches them on local newz anymore(who watches that shit?), so they have to stay 'relevant' somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 53/28. Let’s go snow! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Not only is it placing the banding in a different location it’s oriented completely off from all other guidance. If it did happen to be right by some miracle this would be far more impressive than it’s coup Jan 3 where it was right first at 4-5 days out. Yeah, I’m scared down here a little. Was fun three days out, but WinterWxLuvr willed it north a bit. Cville isn’t Staunton with our temps/elevation and a another tick north could be meh. Hoping for 2” on the grass but feel it’s equally likely in Arlington at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: And it's a relatively recent thing too. Before the mid 2010s, they never used to do this. They would just give their forecast, tell the public how to prepare for whatever is coming, and that was it. Normies back then had no idea what the GFS or NAM or ECMWF were, and honestly it is better that way. This! (they might as well be saying: “I have no clue, but here’s what xyz model says will happen”) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: 53/28. Let’s go snow! 60 leading in to Jan 3rd Sadly this will be nothing like that here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowfan96 Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not only is it placing the banding in a different location it’s oriented completely off from all other guidance. If it did happen to be right by some miracle this would be far more impressive than it’s coup Jan 3 where it was right first at 4-5 days out. And since that Jan 3 event so many folks have wanted to call it the “new king”, but it really just got lucky a few times. The ECM still outperforms over the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I think it got stuck...lol If it is indeed wrong that would take it from a winning g record to about .500...lol This would be at least 3 losses in a row. It needs recalibrating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not only is it placing the banding in a different location it’s oriented completely off from all other guidance. If it did happen to be right by some miracle this would be far more impressive than it’s coup Jan 3 where it was right first at 4-5 days out. That was the last event it nailed at range. Now the ICON figures it out sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 I aggressively approve of the nam output. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 53/28. Let’s go snow! Let the thermometer cheers begin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 55/28 cloudy high was 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MLynnWx Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 11 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said: This! (they might as well be saying: “I have no clue, but here’s what xyz model says will happen”) Like when the news reports the findings of a medical study that has been published. Most people have no idea what it means. Great, but explain it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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