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Feb 12/13 Event Quest for Blues to Envelop More Rather Than Less


North Balti Zen
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13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately it’s a fairly meso band associated with the jet enhancement. So it’s not going to be a forum wide flush hit. That option died when the option of getting some stream phasing and a legit coastal went poof 4 days ago.   Given a combo of where most live AND where has been screwed pretty hard this season…it’s close to best case. Stripes the urban corridor pretty good and if one side has to take one for the team I nominate the SE 1/3 this time.  And yes I’m obviously incredibly biased.  In a non biased way given the very marginal boundary and the trend warmer recently I’m not sure how much good heavier precip SE of 95 would really do anyone anyways.  Hence my “it’s close to a best case scenario” comment. 

We are likely going to get less snow here but not because of temps. It will be due the the initial upper jet streak maxing out further NW, then the new jet emerging from the base of the trough advancing up along the coast that will get the coastal low going, so might be a bit betwixt and between here with generally lighter snow. If moderate to heavy snow does fall here for a time, it will absolutely accumulate, esp given the timing from after midnight through the morning hours.

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's really a detriment to the weather enterprise how some broadcast mets just chug and plug raw model output. The public doesn't know how to differentiate one model from another and just thinks the entire profession is a fraud.

And it's a relatively recent thing too. Before the mid 2010s, they never used to do this. They would just give their forecast, tell the public how to prepare for whatever is coming, and that was it. 

Normies back then had no idea what the GFS or NAM or ECMWF were, and honestly it is better that way.

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9 minutes ago, CAPE said:

LOL the GFS seems so lost.

Not only is it placing the banding in a different location it’s oriented completely off from all other guidance. If it did happen to be right by some miracle this would be far more impressive than it’s coup Jan 3 where it was right first at 4-5 days out.  

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4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

It's really a detriment to the weather enterprise how some broadcast mets just chug and plug raw model output. The public doesn't know how to differentiate one model from another and just thinks the entire profession is a fraud.

These tools are all about hyperbole and getting the clicks. No one watches them on local newz anymore(who watches that shit?), so they have to stay 'relevant' somehow.

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Not only is it placing the banding in a different location it’s oriented completely off from all other guidance. If it did happen to be right by some miracle this would be far more impressive than it’s coup Jan 3 where it was right first at 4-5 days out.  

Yeah, I’m scared down here a little. Was fun three days out, but WinterWxLuvr willed it north a bit. Cville isn’t Staunton with our temps/elevation and a another tick north could be meh. Hoping for 2” on the grass but feel it’s equally likely in Arlington at this point.
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2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

And it's a relatively recent thing too. Before the mid 2010s, they never used to do this. They would just give their forecast, tell the public how to prepare for whatever is coming, and that was it. 

Normies back then had no idea what the GFS or NAM or ECMWF were, and honestly it is better that way.

This! (they might as well be saying: “I have no clue, but here’s what xyz model says will happen”)

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not only is it placing the banding in a different location it’s oriented completely off from all other guidance. If it did happen to be right by some miracle this would be far more impressive than it’s coup Jan 3 where it was right first at 4-5 days out.  

And since that Jan 3 event so many folks have wanted to call it the “new king”, but it really just got lucky a few times. The ECM still outperforms over the GFS.

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not only is it placing the banding in a different location it’s oriented completely off from all other guidance. If it did happen to be right by some miracle this would be far more impressive than it’s coup Jan 3 where it was right first at 4-5 days out.  

That was the last event it nailed at range. Now the ICON figures it out sooner.

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11 minutes ago, Snowfan96 said:

This! (they might as well be saying: “I have no clue, but here’s what xyz model says will happen”)

Like when the news reports the findings of a medical study that has been published. Most people have no idea what it means. Great, but explain it!

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