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Feb 12/13 Event Quest for Blues to Envelop More Rather Than Less


North Balti Zen
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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

One thing we've fought consistently ever since things got going in early Jan is extremely small areas good lift and qpf. It's all little frontogen, jet streaks, or upglide stuff in very small target zones. Drilling down 2+ days in advance is just an exercise in watching noise and letting your brain fill in trends and blanks when there may not be any. I'm done tracking 50mi wide swaths until nowcast time. ROI sucks otherwise. Lol

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Expecting about 2” up here with some help from elevation and colder temps. Same for PSUland mappyland and clskinsland. I’m sure local 3+“ reports will pop up, but I like a general 2” for our general tier.

Someone is going to see a very localized QPF max, as has been the trend all season (as Bob chill referred to above) Models have struggled to pin down that area all season long, but they appear to be honing in on the general area between CHO and Staunton this go around. We won’t know until game time. 
 

The biggest question mark for me is the immediate metros (UHI areas) How do temps fare? Do they see heavy enough returns to overcome some of the temp issues that come with a marginal setup where precip and cold are in a foot race? Biggest upside and downside potential exists in this area IMO, especially DC. 

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Model time over and obs satellite radar and wv on

 Several areas of precip want to merge around mid Atlantic.

it’s incorrect to suggest that 32/33 vs 31/32 is going to make a difference at 3/4am in the morning. I think most of DC  will be like 27-30 anyway come crunch time and rise very little until precip shuts off Super Sunday afternoon.  Thought when I posted first forecast that 1-2” was solid and 3-5” a 10-15% chance and have to upgrade that now to 50/50 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Model time over and obs satellite radar and wv on

 Several areas of precip want to merge around mid Atlantic.

it’s incorrect to suggest that 32/33 vs 31/32 is going to make a difference at 3/4am in the morning. I think most of DC  will be like 27-30 anyway come crunch time and rise very little until precip shuts off Super Sunday afternoon.  Thought when I posted first forecast that 1-2” was solid and 3-5” a 10-15% chance and have to upgrade that now to 50/50 

 

 

I’m gonna need a water vapor update at some point. Please and thank you. :) 

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2m temps don’t equal ground temps.  I have very low expectations of accumulation on roads, etc, after a week of late March weather, but I suppose there might be some slick sidewalks if it comes down moderately.  Maybe I’m thinking I still live in Bethesda, but we shall see.  I’m certainly rooting for it.

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20 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Model time over and obs satellite radar and wv on

 Several areas of precip want to merge around mid Atlantic.

it’s incorrect to suggest that 32/33 vs 31/32 is going to make a difference at 3/4am in the morning. I think most of DC  will be like 27-30 anyway come crunch time and rise very little until precip shuts off Super Sunday afternoon.  Thought when I posted first forecast that 1-2” was solid and 3-5” a 10-15% chance and have to upgrade that now to 50/50 

 

 

Good forecast. But not sure in this case how useful current satellite/radar/obs are.  There is no real synoptic feature we are tracking. No surface low of consequence.  I’m not sure how we use current anything (including models) to pin down a very localized meso scale band of precip associated with a jet streak.  I suppose it we really want to get deep in the weeds we could compare upper levels wind observations with guidance but I’m good.  Frankly without the nwp this is the kind of discreet thing that probably went totally un forecasted 50 years ago. Not that missing a very localized 1-3” event was some kind of catastrophic problem. Somehow we survived.  

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