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Feb 12/13 Event Quest for Blues to Envelop More Rather Than Less


North Balti Zen
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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

You mean shifting an insignificant jet streak induced 1-3” band around a few miles. That is not a significant synoptic change. There isn’t even really a synoptic setup to shift as around 100 hours guidance converged on the fact the coastal would be a total non factor and the NS and SS would stay un phased.  Now we’re just praying to get lucky with a meso scale feature to get a minor snowfall. 

Agree, but this has been the goal for this thread since the beginning. Tracking the small scale features, and hoping for a modest event vs smoking cirrus for places further north. Trends have been good for that. The larger scale stuff has been baked in for days.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You mean shifting an insignificant jet streak induced 1-3” band around a few miles. That is not a significant synoptic change. There isn’t even really a synoptic setup to shift as around 100 hours guidance converged on the fact the coastal would be a total non factor and the NS and SS would stay un phased.  Now we’re just praying to get lucky with a meso scale feature to get a minor snowfall. 

Ok stick to your narrative that inside 100 we don’t see significant shifts. I never doubted it. 
 

But most here would agree we do. Adios

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7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ok stick to your narrative that inside 100 we don’t see significant shifts. I never doubted it. 
 

But most here would agree we do. Adios

clearly the only significant shift would mean going from a 1-3" storm to a 12-18" storm. I'm certain he realizes at this point his posts are no better than that osfan chick. I recall him mentioning that since he isn't getting what he wants he was stepping away....guess that's changed...of course i said i've lost interest in this winter and yet here I am. Snow is an incredible drug

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Ok stick to your narrative that inside 100 we don’t see significant shifts. I never doubted it. 
 

But most here would agree we do. Adios

The changes have been pretty subtle though, and all small in scale. Mostly it's minor shifts in the location/duration/strength of the jet streak on the front side of the trough that are going to make the difference between a coating, and maybe 2-3 inches. That works for most here given how things have played out this winter.

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I put more weight in the NAM nest vs. the NAM12, but accums could ended being splotchy (as depicted in the NAM12) since those areas that aren't beneath a heavier band will end up having their temps stay a bit elevated, which will only work to further reduce their accums. If the banding occurs where currently depicted in the CAMs, folks N/W and in higher elevations will do better with this one.

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29 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Agree, but this has been the goal for this thread since the beginning. Tracking the small scale features, and hoping for a modest event vs smoking cirrus for places further north. Trends have been good for that. The larger scale stuff has been baked in for days.

I know…but I probably should have been more clear when I made my 100 hours comment (although I did say meso scale features aren’t resolved until inside 24) that I was talking about major synoptic events. A 1-3” snow can pop up out of almost nothing at the last minute so long as there is cold around. We get lucky with some discreet vort or in this case a jet enhanced banding feature disassociated from any significant synoptic event. But I don’t waste time tracking those from range. Partly because their not really my cup of tea but also because it’s not realistic to  pin that stuff down at range.   So it’s a waste of time Imo. 
 

Once the 100 hour guidance convergence made it clear a significant synoptic event was off the table I checked out for the most part and I’ve only made a few random comments mostly just to add levity (and I did go off on that one political post sorry @mappy) but I’ve tried to stay off to the side and allow those that wanted to track this their fun without my debbing.
 

I’m paying attention now because we’re within 24 hours so it’s worth it (in my opinion) to look at these discreet features that could give some of us a minor snowfall. That and I’m stuck at home with a sick kid so why not. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I know…but I probably should have been more clear when I made my 100 hours comment (although I did say meso scale features aren’t resolved until inside 24) that I was talking about major synoptic events. A 1-3” snow can pop up out of almost nothing at the last minute so long as there is cold around. We get lucky with some discreet virt or in this case a jet enhanced banding feature disassociated from any significant synoptic event. But I don’t waste time teaching those from range. Partly because their not really my cup of tea but also because it’s not realistic to  pin that stuff down at range.   So it’s a waste of time. 
 

Once the 100 hour guidance convergence made it clear a significant synoptic event was off the table I checked out for the most part and I’ve only made a few random comments mostly just to add levity (and I did go off on that one political post sorry @mappy) but I’ve tried to stay off to the side and allow those that wanted to track this their fun without my debbing.
 

I’m paying attention now because we’re within 24 hours so it’s worth it (in my opinion) to look at these discreet features that could give some of us a minor snowfall. That and I’m stuck at home with a sick kid so why not. 

Hope your child feels better, important stuff….

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30 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

clearly the only significant shift would mean going from a 1-3" storm to a 12-18" storm. I'm certain he realizes at this point his posts are no better than that osfan chick. I recall him mentioning that since he isn't getting what he wants he was stepping away....guess that's changed...of course i said i've lost interest in this winter and yet here I am. Snow is an incredible drug

Philosophy of Charles De Mar from Better Off Dead |  THIS IS PURE SNOW!  IT'S EVERYWHERE! DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT THE STREET VALUE OF THIS MOUNTAIN IS? | image tagged in better off dead,don't do drugs,80s | made w/ Imgflip meme maker

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