Solution Man Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 On to King Missing Panel….THE ICON SUCKS 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 18 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Exactly…. Why I am saying could be the last flakes of the year…I mean we have another southern slider to watch at the end of this upcoming work week which at least has a chance. But as I stated in the long range thread, consensus from the ensembles. GEFS extended and last night EURO weeklies are not good for the last week of February through at least the first week of March which puts us in Hail Mary territory for the second and third week of March. Not trying to be pessimistic but that is my reading of the tea leaves from last night early this am data. The premise of this post is that you are assuming models 2,3,4 weeks in advance are accurate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This post is based on nothing logical Look at the long range guidance. Someone please show me a glimmer of hope for the last week of February/ First week of March. I could use the good news. Rough week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Exactly…. Why I am saying could be the last flakes of the year…I mean we have another southern slider to watch at the end of this upcoming work week which at least has a chance. But as I stated in the long range thread, consensus from the ensembles. GEFS extended and last night EURO weeklies are not good for the last week of February through at least the first week of March which puts us in Hail Mary territory for the second and third week of March. Not trying to be pessimistic but that is my reading of the tea leaves from last night/ early this am data. Too early to give up. Especially in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: On to King Missing Panel 48-72 today will be the magic panels 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Nam3k is always drier than every other model. Toss it It isn't dry lol. Wetter than the Euro. NAM nest is more useful when in range than the 12km, which is trash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChesterfieldVa80 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: I hope that is close for the Alleghany front near Canaan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The promise of this post is that you are assuming models 2,3,4 weeks in advance are accurate. Correct. But when all of the long range guidance looks warm for the 2 week period after President’s Day it is a red flag….you need cold air for snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Exactly…. Why I am saying could be the last flakes of the year…I mean we have another southern slider to watch at the end of this upcoming work week which at least has a chance. But as I stated in the long range thread, consensus from the ensembles. GEFS extended and last night EURO weeklies are not good for the last week of February through at least the first week of March which puts us in Hail Mary territory for the second and third week of March. Not trying to be pessimistic but that is my reading of the tea leaves from last night/ early this am data. And I couldn't care less about snow sticking around. For days and weeks. 60 degrees the day before and 60 degrees after the snow is fine with me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Nam 3k though not great was good deal better than it's 6z a much more expansive field of precip and maybe a tiny nudge to the north. That said it is the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The promise of this post is that you are assuming models 2,3,4 weeks in advance are accurate. Gonna get a double digit paste bomb in mid March with 65 degrees on either side. I am basing that on Chuck's -NAO prediction, WDI, March is a better snow month than December, shortened wavelengths, and seasonal trends. Maybe scratch that last one. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 48-72 today will be the magic panels Miraculously it got it right for once, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Gonna get a double digit paste bomb in mid March with 65 degrees on either side. I am basing that on Chuck's -NAO prediction, WDI, March is a better snow month than December, shortened wavelengths, and seasonal trends. Maybe scratch that last one. I am saving this post…. But honestly verbatim the latest EURO weeklies like the second and third week of March. The teleconnections particularly the WPO and EPO also look much better for this period on the GEFS extended as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: Gonna get a double digit paste bomb in mid March with 65 degrees on either side. I am basing that on Chuck's -NAO prediction, WDI, March is a better snow month than December, shortened wavelengths, and seasonal trends. Maybe scratch that last one. It's time to revive March 25th snows and make them the new December 5th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 12z RGEM moves south with he max strip along i95. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Odds that the ICON nails this?? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Gonna be a massive move nw within 24 hours. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: Gonna get a double digit paste bomb in mid March with 65 degrees on either side. I am basing that on Chuck's -NAO prediction, WDI, March is a better snow month than December, shortened wavelengths, and seasonal trends. Maybe scratch that last one. What a kick in the sack that would be though. Get a foot on either side of 65 degrees to make it appear like a close to normal winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 GRAF’d 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 36 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Wrong thread but the snow hole has locked in this year…we need a monster to shake up the pattern. WB 6Z GEFS. Locked in indeed... that ENS map looks identical to the Seasonal 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 ICON has not a single flake for anyone north of RIC. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 minute ago, caviman2201 said: Locked in indeed... that ENS map looks identical to the Seasonal Someone that tracks the historical data better than I will correct me, but anecdotally, I can tell you that when you get the first big storm it is like it sets the storm path for the winter. I kinda knew where this winter was heading after the foot of snow to our south in early January. It has been their year. They were long overdue… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Solid event: 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 WB 12Z ICON says take another trip to the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 19 minutes ago, Cobalt said: It's time to revive March 25th snows and make them the new December 5th. A bit late for me. I am already larviciding for Spring mosquito deletion at that point lol. March 5th is better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 GFS wants nothing to do with this event unless you are south of Fredericksburg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: GFS wants nothing to do with this event ANYMORE 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Don't let RR see this. 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 King GFS huh…. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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