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Feb 12/13 Event Quest for Blues to Envelop More Rather Than Less


North Balti Zen
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18 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Exactly…. Why I am saying could be the last flakes of the year…I mean we have another southern slider to watch at the end of this upcoming work week which at least has a chance.  But as I stated in the long range thread, consensus from the ensembles. GEFS extended and last night EURO  weeklies are not good for the last week of February through at least the first week of March which puts us in Hail Mary territory for the second and third week of March.  Not trying to be pessimistic but that is my reading of the tea leaves from last night early this am data.

The premise of this post is that you are assuming models 2,3,4 weeks in advance are accurate.

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5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Exactly…. Why I am saying could be the last flakes of the year…I mean we have another southern slider to watch at the end of this upcoming work week which at least has a chance.  But as I stated in the long range thread, consensus from the ensembles. GEFS extended and last night EURO  weeklies are not good for the last week of February through at least the first week of March which puts us in Hail Mary territory for the second and third week of March.  Not trying to be pessimistic but that is my reading of the tea leaves from last night/ early this am data.

Too early to give up. Especially in our area.

 

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7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Exactly…. Why I am saying could be the last flakes of the year…I mean we have another southern slider to watch at the end of this upcoming work week which at least has a chance.  But as I stated in the long range thread, consensus from the ensembles. GEFS extended and last night EURO  weeklies are not good for the last week of February through at least the first week of March which puts us in Hail Mary territory for the second and third week of March.  Not trying to be pessimistic but that is my reading of the tea leaves from last night/ early this am data.

And I couldn't care less about snow sticking around.  For days and weeks. 60 degrees the day before and 60 degrees after the snow is fine with me. 

 

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4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The promise of this post is that you are assuming models 2,3,4 weeks in advance are accurate.

Gonna get a double digit paste bomb in mid March with 65 degrees on either side. I am basing that on Chuck's -NAO prediction, WDI, March is a better snow month than December, shortened wavelengths, and seasonal trends. Maybe scratch that last one.

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Gonna get a double digit paste bomb in mid March with 65 degrees on either side. I am basing that on Chuck's -NAO prediction, WDI, March is a better snow month than December, shortened wavelengths, and seasonal trends. Maybe scratch that last one.

I am saving this post…. But honestly verbatim the latest EURO weeklies like the second and third week of March.  The teleconnections particularly the WPO and EPO also look much better for this period on the GEFS extended as well.  

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Gonna get a double digit paste bomb in mid March with 65 degrees on either side. I am basing that on Chuck's -NAO prediction, WDI, March is a better snow month than December, shortened wavelengths, and seasonal trends. Maybe scratch that last one.

It's time to revive March 25th snows and make them the new December 5th. 

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Gonna get a double digit paste bomb in mid March with 65 degrees on either side. I am basing that on Chuck's -NAO prediction, WDI, March is a better snow month than December, shortened wavelengths, and seasonal trends. Maybe scratch that last one.

What a kick in the sack that would be though. Get a foot on either side of 65 degrees to make it appear like a close to normal winter. 

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1 minute ago, caviman2201 said:

Locked in indeed... that ENS map looks identical to the Seasonal

nohrsc_seasnow.us_ma.png

Someone that tracks the historical data better than I will correct me, but anecdotally, I can tell you that when you get the first big storm it is like it sets the storm path for the winter.  I kinda knew where this winter was heading after the foot of snow to our south in early January.  It has been their year.  They were long overdue…

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