LeesburgWx Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: NAM looks nice. Too bad its wrong. I bet it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Still snowing at 51, can’t ask for much more than this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Not sure Heights seem a little lower out in front. Hope I'm wrong Yep. Nam gives the big fu to northern MD 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just now, Chris78 said: Yep. Nam gives the big fu to northern MD Yup, that was obvious aloft after h36. Starting to think who does have precip fire over them will get some heavy rates. Good forcing/fronto showing up. Will it be NW like GGEM/RGEM/HRRR or SE like this NAM run or the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: Yep. Nam gives the big fu to northern MD Yeah cutoff is brutal there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Yup, that was obvious aloft after h36. Starting to think who does have precip fire over them will get some heavy rates. Good forcing/fronto showing up. Will it be NW like GGEM/RGEM/HRRR or SE like this NAM run or the GFS. Seasonal trends. I'm expecting partly cloudy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 zoomed out weenie map, still some snow falling SE of 95 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Seasonal trends. I'm expecting partly cloudy Agreed, we suck. Need the HRDPS to be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just now, snowfan said: I would be perfectly okay with getting 3" of SB Sunday snow to watch fall at home compared to watching 7" of snow fall at college. Too bad it's the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 WB 12Z NAM, 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Agreed, we suck. The Hagerstown Regional Snowhole is alive and well. Not sure I'm going to get to double digits this season at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 The NAM is doing NAM things. It is erratic as eff- just look at its last 4 runs lol. That being said, it seems to be working its way towards the general idea of the better models, but swerving like a drunk along the path. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 nam 12 aside, seems like there's consensus at this point of a light event. with the low heading essentially ots, need to hope the initial frontal stuff overperforms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: The NAM is doing NAM things. It is erratic as eff- just look at its last 4 runs lol. That being said, it seems to be working its way towards the general idea of the better models, but swerving like a drunk along the path. You’re right a drunk always finds his way home…just depends on what home? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z NAM, Those purples are getting closer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2022 Author Share Posted February 11, 2022 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z NAM, that meets the thread title while also hosing my area. This event ate an entire cheese wheel. I am not even mad, just impressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 I have not given up on Sunday yet mostly because it may the last flakes we see this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS clearly didn't understand the assignment. Once some of us began dubbing the GFS the new King, the pressure to perform must have gotten to it because it fell right back to the bottom of the pack as the most unreliable global model. The whole Gfs king thing was always overdone. It nailed one storm. Then people gave it credit when it simply wasn’t any worse than other globals on the next couple. Then it was awful a couple times. Different models will take turns with a hot hand in a specific pattern. But over the long run the euro is still best. It was just struggling for a time with a fast flow NS pattern. That said I am still impressed with the Gfs upgrade. It’s errors now are a lot less significant that in the past. But the best method still remains a Gfs euro blend that accounts for the likely bias of each. Some compromise ends up correct most of the time. 14 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Still snowing at 51, can’t ask for much more than this I mean I didn’t expect the 8” it gave me last run but I’m supposed to be ok with the .04 it gives me this run just because it snows? This run was a pretty significant step towards the SE and consensus of the better guidance which was totally expected. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I have not given up on Sunday yet mostly because it may the last flakes we see this winter. Nahhh...just keep coming on in here regularly...you're sure to see plenty of "flakes" all year long!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 It does seem that west central VA is where the the vorticity along the front, the upper jet, (and probably some terrain enhancement) coincide and provide the best ascent. Further eastward the forcing may weaken some as the trough starts to approach the coast and the coastal low gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Wrong thread but the snow hole has locked in this year…we need a monster to shake up the pattern. WB 6Z GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: Wrong thread but the snow hole has locked in this year…we need a monster to shake up the pattern. WB 6Z GEFS. Isn't most of that from Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 12z FV3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 The nam at 12z was a step back for northern areas. Loudoun has no wiggle room..extremely dissapoinring but expected run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Nam3k is always drier than every other model. Toss it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Isn't most of that from Sunday? Exactly…. Why I am saying could be the last flakes of the year…I mean we have another southern slider to watch at the end of this upcoming work week which at least has a chance. But as I stated in the long range thread, consensus from the ensembles. GEFS extended and last night EURO weeklies are not good for the last week of February through at least the first week of March which puts us in Hail Mary territory for the second and third week of March. Not trying to be pessimistic but that is my reading of the tea leaves from last night/ early this am data. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I have not given up on Sunday yet mostly because it may the last flakes we see this winter. This post is based on nothing logical 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 11, 2022 Share Posted February 11, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: This post is based on nothing logical well he's a lawyer so....... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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